Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction & Picks - Champions League

Europe - Champions League

Arsenal
4/8/25 15:00
Real Madrid

Prediction:

 

Draw and both teams to score

+340
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 by Simon Day in Champions League Picks

Champions League holders Real Madrid travel to the Emirates on Tuesday night, as they take on Arsenal in the first leg of a blockbuster quarter final tie. Whilst Real have been crowned European champions on a record 15 occasions, the Gunners are still looking for their first ever Champions League title. However, given Real's patchy recent domestic form, Arsenal may see this as a fantastic chance to reach the last four of the competition for the first time since 2009. 

Surprisingly, the two sides have only played each other twice before. A second leg goal from Thierry Henry gave the Gunners a 1-0 victory at the Bernabeu, after the first leg of their 2005/2006 last 16 clash finished 0-0. That season ended up being Arsneal's best ever in the competition, as they went all the way to the final before losing 2-1 to Barcelona. 

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Arsenal vs Real Madrid Form

Arsenal and Real Madrid Latest Matches

Arsenal
Arsenal Latest matches
W D D W W D
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 5, 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  1
Arsenal

Apr 1, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Fulham

Mar 16, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  0
Chelsea

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  2
PSV Eindhoven

Mar 9, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League

PSV Eindhoven
1 :  7
Arsenal
W W L D W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
50% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Apr 1, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Fulham

Mar 16, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
1 :  0
Chelsea

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
2 :  2
PSV Eindhoven

Feb 22, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
0 :  1
West Ham

Feb 2, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
5 :  1
Manchester City

Jan 22, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
L W D W D D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
0.83 Goals conceded
17% Over 2.5
83% Under 2.5

Apr 5, 2025 - Premier League

Everton
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 9, 2025 - Premier League

Manchester United
1 :  1
Arsenal

Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League

PSV Eindhoven
1 :  7
Arsenal

Feb 26, 2025 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
0 :  0
Arsenal

Feb 15, 2025 - Premier League

Leicester
0 :  2
Arsenal

Feb 5, 2025 - Carabao Cup

Newcastle
2 :  0
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Real Madrid Latest matches
W L W W D L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.83 Total goals
83% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.83 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Apr 5, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Valencia

Apr 1, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Madrid
4 :  4
Real Sociedad

Mar 29, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Leganés

Mar 15, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
1 :  2
Real Madrid

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Real Madrid

Mar 9, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Rayo Vallecano
W W W W D L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.33 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Apr 5, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Valencia

Apr 1, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Madrid
4 :  4
Real Sociedad

Mar 29, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Leganés

Mar 9, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Rayo Vallecano

Mar 4, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
2 :  1
Atletico Madrid

Feb 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
2 :  0
Girona
W D W L L W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.5 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.33 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Mar 15, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
1 :  2
Real Madrid

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Real Madrid

Mar 1, 2025 - LaLiga

Betis
2 :  1
Real Madrid

Feb 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Sociedad
0 :  1
Real Madrid

Feb 15, 2025 - LaLiga

Osasuna
1 :  1
Real Madrid

Feb 11, 2025 - Champions League

Manchester City
2 :  3
Real Madrid

Arsenal against Real Madrid : Head to Head (H2H)

Jul 23, 2019 - International Champions Cup

Real Madrid
2 :  2
Arsenal

Arsenal - Real Madrid: Form Analysis

Arsenal's 1-1 draw at Everton on Saturday effectively ended their Premier League title hopes, and it has now been just two wins in six games for Mikel Arteta's side. However, their form in Europe has been far more impressive, and their thumping 9-3 aggregate win over PSV in the last 16 demonstrated that the Gunners can be a match for anyone on the continent on their day. 

Real not at their best

Saturday's shock 1-2 home defeat to Valencia has put a big dent in Real's La Liga title hopes and they are now four points behind leaders Barcelona with just eight games remaining. In truth, Carlo Ancelotti's team have been far from their best in recent weeks. A fortunate aggregate victory over Real Sociedad in the Copa Del Rey followed nervy league wins over Leganes and Villarreal and a very lucky Champions League last 16 shoot-out success against Atletico.  

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Real Madrid v Arsenal last Lineups

Arsenal

Formation : 4 - 3 - 3

22
D. Raya
15
J. Kiwior
2
W. Saliba
4
B. White
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
53
E. Nwaneri
20
Jorginho
41
D. Rice
30
R. Sterling
23
M. Merino
19
L. Trossard
7
Vinicius Junior
9
K. Mbappe
5
J. Bellingham
8
F. Valverde
10
L. Modric
21
B. Diaz
20
F. Garcia
22
A. Rudiger
14
A. Tchouameni
17
L. Vazquez
26
F. Gonzalez

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

Real Madrid

Missing players

Arsenal
Arsenal
Defender

T. Tomiyasu

R. Calafiori

G. Magalhaes

Forward

G. Jesus

K. Havertz

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Goalkeeper

T. Courtois

Defender

E. Militao

D. Carvajal

F. Mendy

Midfielder

D. Ceballos

Arsenal & Real Madrid Squad Analysis

Arsenal go into the game without a recognized striker, as regular forwards Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are ruled out for the season. In their absence, Mikel Merino will once again be asked to play as makeshift number nine. At the back, Ricardo Calafiori and Gabriel miss out, but Jurrien Timber and Ben White are back in contention after recovering from injuries. 

Real missing key defenders

Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal are long term defensive absences for Real, whilst Ferland Mendy is also likely to is out with a muscle problem. In goal, Thibaut Courtois will return after missing the Valencia game with a minor injury. Midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended after picking up three bookings so far in the competition. 

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Arsenal
CD Huachipato Real Madrid
Top Goalscorer
Germany K. Havertz (15 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
France K. Mbappe (29 Goals)
Best assists
England B. Saka (13 Assists)
Best assists
England J. Bellingham (9 Assists)

Arsenal and Real Madrid Stats in Champions League

Arsenal
Arsenal
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
70%
Victories
67%
20%
Draw
0%
10%
Defeats
33%
3.1
Total goals per match
3.75
2.5
Goals scored per match
2.33
0.6
Goals conceded per match
1.42
60%
Over 2.5
75%
40%
Under 2.5
25%
40%
BTTS
67%
50%
No goals conceded
8%

Arsenal - Real Madrid Key Points

  1. Both teams have scored in each of Real's last 4 games
  2. Arsenal have scored 22 goals in their last 6 Champions League games
  3. Arsenal have drawn four of their last 7 fixtures
  4. Arsenal have lost just 1 of their last 10 Champions League matches
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Our Arsenal vs Real Madrid Prediction

It's fair to say that neither of these teams are currently playing their best football of the season. Real have looked very shaky defensively in recent weeks, whilst Arsenal's attacking problems have been very well documented. Arsenal's home advantage will probably give them a slight edge and they certainly have the stronger backline, but it is impossible to back against Real in a competition they have made their own in recent years. Given those factors, we think the smart money lies in backing a score draw. Our prediction for Arsenal vs Real Madrid is: Draw and both teams to score.

Prediction:

 

Draw and both teams to score

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Arsenal vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Picks

Correct score: 2-2

Odds +1400
Whilst Arsenal have struggled to find the net in the Premier League, their European goalscoring record is excellent and they have scored 22 goals in their last six Champions League matches. When you also factor in Real's incredible collection of attacking talent, the odds of 15.00 on the game finishing in a 2-2 draw seem extremely long.
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$150 available for Arsenal vs Real Madrid

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Arsenal vs Real Madrid Picks
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