2024 WNBA Finals: A Clash of Styles in the Liberty-Lynx Battle
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Liberty vs Lynx: Context of 2024 WNBA Finals
The Liberty were the title favorites in our WNBA predictions heading into this postseason. Dominant throughout the regular season, New York swept the Atlanta Dream in the first round before a four-game triumph over the defending champion Aces.
Minnesota is in the Finals for the first time since 2017. They won all four of their titles between 2011 and 2017 and lost the Finals in 2012 and 2016. This series is an opportunity for a new generation of Lynx players to make history. After a first-round loss and a 19-21 record in 2023, the Lynx were a force to be reckoned with throughout 2024 with the third-best net rating in the Association.
This is the first postseason meeting between the Lynx and Liberty. Minnesota won two out of three against New York in the regular season, improving their all-time record against the Liberty to 32-25.
Through the first two rounds of the postseason, the Lynx boast the second-best offensive rating. The Liberty have the league’s best defensive rating in the playoffs. New York also has the highest rebounding rate. Minnesota has the lowest rebounding rate in the postseason, which is bound to be a key factor in this series.
What to expect from the 2024 WNBA Finals
These were the only two teams to rank in the top four in offensive and defensive rating during the regular season. While the Liberty have the edge defensively in the playoffs, Minnesota was the league’s best defense in the regular season.
Both teams were in the top three in three-pointers made per game during the regular season. New York led the league in three-point frequency. While perimeter shooting is vital for both teams, the battle in the paint is bound to be significant, too.
Breanna Stewart was excellent in the closeout win over the Aces. Napheesa Collier has arguably been the best player throughout these playoffs and finished runner-up in MVP voting. Stewart and Jonquel Jones up against Collier and Alanna Smith could prove the decisive duel of these Finals.
Collier’s minutes on the bench are a massive opportunity for the Liberty. Minnesota was -6.2 per 100 possessions without Collier, compared with +13.9 when she was on the floor.
If Sabrina Ionescu plays like she did against the Aces, it’s going to very difficult for the Lynx to win this series. Desperate for a first championship, Ionescu’s shooting and shot creation can see her put up numbers even against a steely Lynx defense.
Minnesota needs Collier to be at her very best if they are to record an upset in this series. Her presence at both ends of the floor is vital. The Lynx also need their guards to keep pace with New York’s three-point shooting – they led the league in three-point percentage during the regular season but averaged four fewer attempts per game.
We are expecting a deep series. These have been the league’s two best teams in 2024. For a full look into our prediction for the Finals as well as our prediction for the 2024 WNBA Finals MVP award, be sure to consult our WNBA prediction page.
Important info
- Game 1: Minnesota at New York - Thursday, Oct. 10 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Game 2: Minnesota at New York - Sunday, Oct. 13 at 3 p.m. ET on ABC
- Game 3: New York at Minnesota - Wednesday, Oct. 16 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Game 4 (if necessary): New York at Minnesota - Friday, Oct. 18 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Game 5 (if necessary): Minnesota at New York - Sunday, Oct. 20 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
