Premier League Futures: Stay Out of the Blue
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Steer clear of Chelsea futures amid season-altering slump
Chelsea ended a five-match Premier League winless run with a 3-1 victory over lowly Wolves on Monday night. The Blues have made a habit of relinquishing leads, resulting in dropped points during a favorable run of fixtures.
Matches against Everton, Fulham, Ipswich, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth brought Enzo Maresca’s team only three points. Suggestions they could compete for the title have quickly been made to look reckless. Instead, Chelsea have benefited from the inconsistencies of the teams around them to cling onto a top-four berth.
FanDuel has Chelsea at -170 to finish in the top four after their much-needed Monday night win at Stamford Bridge. The west London club have drifted to +6500 to win the Premier League. At DraftKings, you can get the Blues at +600 to finish in the top two.
Despite the fourth-best expected goal difference in the Premier League (and only narrowly behind Bournemouth), bettors should avoid getting tempted by any of Chelsea’s futures for your Premier League predictions. They don’t have the consistency to get into the top two, and their league position is far too precarious to consider backing them at -170 for a top-four placing.
Competitive Top Four Battle
Manchester City and Newcastle are two points behind Chelsea. The gap to Bournemouth is only three. Each coming off some good results, Aston Villa and Brighton are four and six points off Chelsea, respectively.
Arsenal and Nottingham Forest are four points ahead of Chelsea. Forest’s underlying metrics suggest they will drop off in the next few months, but there’s no guarantee Chelsea can overcome that gap with how they have performed of late. Arsenal have been up-and-down amid significant injuries, yet they look like a lock for a top-four finish.
Chelsea, Forest, City, Newcastle, Villa, and Bournemouth are likely battling for the final two places in the top four. It’s a far more balanced contest that Chelsea’s -170 price indicates.
Newcastle were rolling until their weekend defeat to Bournemouth, City are beginning to get back on track, and Bournemouth have been a revelation under Andoni Iraola. It would be foolish to write off Villa after taking eight points from their last four matches, including a draw at the Emirates.
Challenges To Come
The slump in late December and the first part of January was a missed opportunity for Chelsea. A lengthy winning streak looked plausible a month or so ago, which would have put them in the midst of the title race and consolidated a top-four spot.
Maresca, instead, has a daunting few weeks to come. Chelsea travel to the Etihad to face Manchester City this Saturday. A London derby with West Ham is up next, followed by trips to Brighton and Aston Villa.
The Conference League resumes in March. Maresca will likely commit more first-team players to the competition after using an almost entirely separate squad for the group stage. The Blues are -155 to win the Conference League at DraftKings.
Sitting fourth in the second half of January is around what the Chelsea hierarchy would have expected when they hired Maresca. This campaign has been trending in the wrong direction, though, and the next few weeks could see the Italian come under severe pressure.
If the defense remains porous and the attack wasteful, Chelsea will drop more points over the next four matches. They could quickly find themselves outside the European places altogether.
Value Elsewhere
Newcastle (+190 at FanDuel) and Bournemouth (+1000 at FanDuel) are much better options in the top four market. Chelsea’s reputation and form earlier in the season mean their odds are too short given what we have seen from them since the middle of December.
In the top two markets at DraftKings, +2200 on Forest is worth a small wager given their remarkable run. Could Nuno Espirito Santo’s side be riding some magic similar to Leicester’s improbable title in 2026?
There are far too many flaws in this Chelsea team to have confidence in their futures at the moment. Don’t be surprised to see rumors about Maresca’s future if the next four matchdays produce less than two wins.
