US Election Bets: Donald Trump
by Dan Angell | by Kevin Richard
Best Political Bets Involving Donald Trump
Political bets are not permitted at American sportsbooks, so you won’t be able to take advantage of any of these plays at FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or any other U.S.-based sportsbook.
For this list of wagers, we’re looking specifically at the Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump. More specifically, we’re looking at which states he’s likely to do well in and where there might be value in either going with him or against him.
With these bets, there won’t be any value in fading Trump just because of his voters betting on him. Political bets don’t work like that. Vanity bets are very rare, to the point where they essentially do not exist.
Almost all of the money on Trump is going to be because the bettor thinks that outcome will happen, not because they necessarily want him to be president.
So knowing your numbers and trends becomes vitally important. Here are a few of the best bets on the board.
Donald Trump to Win Between 22 and 25 States
This is two separate bets, as Trump to win 22 or 23 states goes off at +600 and 24 to 25 states goes off at +500. But in this case, it’s smart to cover your bases against a surprise. Based off historical trends and data, we know that at least 19 states will vote for Trump and 19 others will vote against him. That leaves 12 states that could be in play at all.
Of those 12, the only way Trump expands his map from 2020 is by winning Nevada for the first time or winning back one of the five states that Trump lost to Joe Biden in 2020. Neither outcome is particularly likely.
A recovering economy has Nevada appearing to slip away from Trump, and the Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin appear to be trending in Harris’ direction.
If all four go to her, Trump would have to get something out of the Sun Belt to expand his map.
That means winning back Arizona or Georgia and holding on to North Carolina. All three are true toss-ups, and two are bogged down by a terrible Republican candidate in a key down-ballot race. Kari Lake is down double digits in the Arizona Senate race, and Mark Robinson faces the same deficit for North Carolina governor.
And getting those two would clinch Trump getting no more than 25 states in his column. Fortunately, you don’t have to risk going below 22. Kamala Harris could pry loose Florida or Texas with a perfect storm, but she’s probably not going to win more than that without a massive polling error. This is a situation where you should split your bet between two very realistic outcomes. Even if the lower probability hits, you’d still be up a full four units over your original bet.
Donald Trump -39.5 in West Virginia
West Virginia is a political graveyard for Democrats, and it’s only likely to get worse this year. Since 2008, only Joe Manchin has managed to win even one county in the state. Trump won it by 39 point in 2020 and by 42 points in 2016. Joe Biden was able to pull a bit closer than Hillary Clinton because of remarks Clinton made against coal, which is huge in West Virginia.
Kamala Harris hasn’t bothered to say anything about coal, but her feelings about green energy are well known. Given that she’s much less of a known entity than Biden was, she’s likely to slide back a little from what Biden got in 2020, which still wasn’t much. West Virginia has a few traditional Democratic voters who were used to voting for Jay Rockefeller and Robert C. Byrd, but those politicians are long gone from the Democratic Party.
So is Manchin, who opted to retire rather than try to run for another six years in the Senate. And with Manchin not on the ballot, West Virginia voters won’t face the complicated question of whether to vote for both Trump and Manchin on the same ticket or vote Republican the entire way down the ballot. Manchin had previously won two elections in West Virginia by convincing about a third of Republican voters to vote for him over his opponent.
This time, Glenn Elliott isn’t well known outside of Wheeling. Jim Justice should win by a large margin for the Senate, and that will encourage a greater margin for Trump. A 40-point win is very probable.
Donald Trump -19.5 in Louisiana
Louisiana has been consistently favorable for Republicans. Over the past four elections, the closest a Democrat has come to winning was Barack Obama losing the state by 17 points. Things have gotten worse for Louisiana Democrats since then, as Trump held his opponent under 40% of the vote in both of the past two elections.
Without a strong third party on the ballot, Trump has a good chance to make this a 20-point margin. Kamala Harris isn’t going to make a serious run at more than 40% of the vote, as there’s nothing in Louisiana worth trying for on the Democratic side this year. The state votes for governor in odd years and doesn’t have a Senate election in play. As long as Trump is able to run up the score with his voters, this number is in play.
Donald Trump -23.5 in Utah
Utah has been the trickiest state on the board for Trump to increase his margins, as it’s been the most resistant Republican state to MAGA. When Trump secured the Republican nomination in 2016, Utah was easily the most hostile to him of the traditionally Republican states, as it has a high Mormon population that did not approve of Trump’s character or behavior.
The state further showed its disapproval with Trump in 2018 by electing 2012 Republican presidential nominee and vocal Trump critic Mitt Romney to the Senate. But since then, Romney’s approval ratings have fallen, Utah governor Spencer Cox has come around to Trump’s side and the Utah Republican Party has fully embraced Trump after nine years of him remaking the party.
That spells an opportunity for Trump to run up the score. Utah’s Mormon population has made its peace with Trump, similar to Idaho and Wyoming. Trump won the state by 21 points in 2020, and he can easily improve that margin in 2024.
Donald Trump Between 70 Million and 74.999 Million Votes
This would represent almost no increase for Trump in his vote total from 2020. Polls suggest that will be the case, as he’s likely to pull in 46 to 47% of the popular vote. Recent polls have placed him around that number, and Republicans have been underperforming their poll numbers consistently for the past two years.
Since Dobbs v. Jackson in June 2022, Republicans have consistently failed to meet their expectations at the ballot box. What has tended to happen is groups of voters who have long been Republican say that they’re still with Trump, but then go against the Republicans when they have to decide whether to protect their daughters’ rights.
Trump has not had to run on a ballot since the Dobbs decision, and he hasn’t yet found a way to neutralize the issue. He’s tried to play both sides of the fence, as his base voters want him to take credit for letting each state decide for itself on abortion while everyone else is skittish at best about that choice.
That says that Trump is likely to come closer to 46% than 47%, and with 162 million votes expected to be cast this election, that would land Trump right around 74.5 million votes. If he bleeds any support at all from that number, you still have some wiggle room before he goes under 70 million and becomes a losing option. Most likely, he’ll end up somewhere in that range of total votes.
