US Election Bets: Kamala Harris
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
Best Political Bets Involving Kamala Harris
As with any other set of political wagers, these will not be available at any American sportsbook.
For this list of wagers, we’re looking specifically at the Democratic nominee for president, Kamala Harris. More specifically, we’re looking at the states where she has an advantage and where it might be smart to back her with your wager,
Remember, with these bets, there is no value in fading the vice president just because of people betting on or against her. If someone has placed a bet on Harris to win a state by a certain margin, it’s because they’re confident that she will do exactly that.
That’s why you need to know your numbers when you make political bets, even more so than on sporting events. Here are a few of your best options.
Kamala Harris -12.5 in Colorado
Colorado really doesn’t like Donald Trump. In 2016, the presence of Gary Johnson helped keep Trump’s margin of defeat to a reasonable five points, right in line with Barack Obama’s win over Mitt Romney in 2012. It had been a swing state for the past few years, and one Trump had hoped to bring into play in 2020.
Instead, Joe Biden beat him by 14 points. Kamala Harris is poised to do the exact same thing. She’s consistently held a double digit lead on Trump in the Centennial State, and nobody in their right mind thinks Trump has a chance to win it.
That’s because Colorado is a fast-growing state that’s mostly attracting young, highly educated professionals. These voters are consistently rejecting Trump in large numbers, and it doesn’t seem likely Trump is going to improve on his poor showing in the state from four years ago. Harris should have no problems beating Biden’s showing, which would allow her to cover the number with ease.
Kamala Harris +12.5 in Kansas
No, Kamala Harris is not going to win Kansas. The Sunflower State hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1964, and that’s the only time in the past 88 years that it’s gone blue. But Kansas is getting more competitive as the wealthy Kansas suburbs shift toward the Democrats. Johnson County in particular has become friendly territory for the Democrats, as it’s full of college-educated voters who were strong Republicans until Trump came along. In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama in Johnson County by 17 points. Eight years later, Joe Biden flipped that and won Johnson County by eight points.
And that means Kansas is likely to become a real headache for Republicans within two election cycles. It’s not there yet, but it’s inching ever closer toward swing-state status as Democrats pour into the eastern part of the state. Making matters worse for Trump and the Republicans is the fact that it’s not just Johnson County turning more Democratic. Shawnee County, home to state capital Topeka, and Riley County, home of Kansas State University, both voted Democratic in 2020, which helped cut Trump’s margin of victory in Kansas to 14.5 points.
Kansas further showed its rejection of Republicans in 2022, when it voted down an amendment that would have enacted an abortion ban in the state. Harris still won’t win it or even come all that close, but she might be able to keep the margin to nine to 10 points. That would easily cash as well as put Kansas on the map for 2028.
Kamala Harris -6.5 in Maine
Maine is tricky, because it’s one of only two states that divides its electoral votes. It has done so in each of the past two elections, and there’s a good chance that it will do so again this time. But that doesn’t mean that Maine as a whole is likely to be all that close. The Pine Tree State went for Joe Biden by nine points in 2020, and it’s likely to be around the same margin this time around.
That’s because Maine’s political power is clustered around Portland, which is moving further toward the Democrats. Portland moved to the left by double digits in 2020 compared to 2016, and there’s no strong third-party challenger to pull votes away from Harris. Unless Trump absolutely runs up the score in Maine’s more rural Second District (the electoral vote he’s likely to win out of Maine), Harris is probably going to score a double-digit victory statewide in Maine.
Kamala Harris -17.5 in New York
This appears to be an example of the books getting a little too cute and making a mistake with their line. Donald Trump has tried to claim that he can win New York, which is a delusional statement. New York hasn’t seen a Republican get over 40 percent in the state since 2004, when George W. Bush lost to John Kerry by 18 points. Trump has already lost the state twice and done so by 23 points on both occasions.
The markets overreacted to one bad poll when Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee for president, and they haven’t corrected themselves yet. It’s pretty unlikely that Kamala Harris will see her margin of victory in the Empire State get below 20 points, given how boisterous her crowds have been and how ugly Trump’s history in New York is.
Since the last time he ran for president, Trump has been convicted in multiple legal cases in the state of New York, which makes it pretty unlikely that his popularity has improved at all. Harris should be able to easily cover this number.
Kamala Harris to Win North Carolina
This is an interesting spot, as Harris is getting plus money to win the Tar Heel State. On the surface, that seems like a heavy ask, as North Carolina has broken for Trump in the past two elections and has been a reliably red state outside of 2008.
But this time, Trump has a severe liability trailing him in the person of North Carolina gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson. Robinson has seen his poll numbers crater, and he’s on track to lose the race by double digits. That makes this a golden opportunity for Harris to upset Trump and essentially end the campaign with her as the winner.
North Carolina does have a history of ticket splitting, as current Democratic governor Roy Cooper got re-elected over Dan Forest in 2020 despite Trump’s narrow victory in the state. But Cooper only attracted about 200,000 of Trump’s voters. That comes out to about four percent of the total electorate in the state who voted Trump for president and Cooper for governor.
If Robinson’s poll numbers are to be believed, Trump would need to convince about 800,000 voters for Democratic governor Josh Stein to also vote for him to offset Robinson’s terrible showing in the state. That seems pretty unlikely. Democratic voters are virtually monolithic in their hatred of Trump, and it’s far more likely that a Trump-Stein voter is somebody who was already Republican and was just appalled by Robinson’s words.
By this point, there doesn’t seem to be many of those voters left. Unless ticket splitting happens in a much bigger way than anyone expects in North Carolina, Robinson appears to be on track to drag Trump down and single-handedly open the door for Kamala Harris to win the state. If she does, not only would she cash for plus money, but she’d be on track to win the presidency.
