Champions League Playoffs: Who will qualify according to the sportsbooks?
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Benfica vs Monaco
We unfortunately begin this article with bad news for French football. While Lille has secured its qualification for the round of 16 and PSG ensured their place with the first leg, this is not the case for Monaco.
Although the club has some mitigating circumstances to explain the result of the first leg (0-1 for Benfica), including a very questionable referee decision, sportsbooks have little hope for the return match tonight (and our Benfica vs Monaco prediction won’t contradict them).
In fact, on average, online betting sites are offering short odds for Benfica Lisbon’s qualification, while the odds for Monaco’s qualification are at understandably high. A difference that suggests a complicated return leg according to the sportsbooks' odds calculation tools.
- Benfica has a 90% chance of qualifying
- Monaco has only a 22% chance of reaching the round of 16
Milan AC vs Feyenoord: All Eyes on Milan
Let’s now move on to the early match, which will be very interesting to follow. Here, the suspense is also at its peak, as AC Milan lost in the first leg in the Netherlands, like Monaco, by the smallest of margins, and will have to validate our Milan AC vs Feyenoord prediction to make it to the round of 16.
At home, in their San Siro fortress, and despite last week's loss, AC Milan remains the sportsbooks' favorite, with short odds for qualification, while Feyenoord’s odds are significantly higher. Do you believe in a scenario where the Rossoneri turn the tide and reach the round of 16?
- AC Milan has a 64.5% chance of qualifying for the round of 16
- Feyenoord has a 45.5% chance of getting there
Bayern Munich vs Celtic: Mission impossible for the Scots?
Few experts gave Celtic a chance to eliminate Bayern Munich in these Champions League playoffs. And last week’s defeat in Scotland didn’t help things for Kasper Schmeichel and his teammates. Our Bayern Munich vs Celtic prediction actually envisions a goal-fest for the Bavarians.
And the sportsbooks fully agree with this, as the odds for Bayern's qualification are extremely short! In contrast, Celtic's odds are astronomical. A task that seems quite complicated for today’s visitors, who, according to us, will not be able to pull off an exploit at the Allianz Arena.
- Bayern Munich has a 99% chance of qualifying according to the sportsbooks
- Celtic, on the other hand, has only a 10.5% chance of reaching the round of 16
Atalanta Bergamo vs Bruges: Dea favorite!
Next, let’s talk about the final match of this Tuesday night, which promises to be full of suspense. After losing in Belgium, Atalanta will need to deliver a solid performance to validate our Atalanta Bergamo vs Bruges prediction and secure their ticket to the round of 16 in the Champions League. Online sports betting sites certainly believe so.
With an average qualification odds of remaining low, Dea is slightly favored over Club Bruges, whose odds only just above the Italians. We should have a tight matchup, as we saw in the first leg, between two teams now well-versed in Europe and these high-stakes games.
- Atalanta Bergamo has a 58.8% chance of qualifying according to the sportsbooks
- Club Bruges has a 51.3% chance of making it to the round of 16
Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Portugal: BVB already qualified?
For the first match on Wednesday, we have a meeting similar to the one mentioned earlier between Bayern Munich and Celtic Glasgow. After a very solid performance in Portugal last week, Dortmund is almost already in the round of 16 thanks to their 3-0 win.
If our Borussia Dortmund vs Sporting Portugal prediction predicts a low-scoring game, its still easy to see a way in which BVB manages to pull out a victory at home.
Back to the odds for qualification, where the sportsbooks are unanimous: super short for Borussia, and Sporting will need to perform a true exploit, with odds among the highest of any team on average to qualify for the next stage of the tournament.
- Like Bayern, Dortmund has a 99% chance of reaching the round of 16
- For Sporting, it’s more complicated with a 10.3% chance of qualifying
PSG vs Brest: Paris already in the round of 16?
As for this all-French clash, PSG ended any suspense right from the first leg. By winning 0-3 at Roudourou, the chances of Stade Brestois pulling off an exploit at the Parc des Princes are extremely slim, if not nonexistent. Indeed, operators don’t even offer odds for a qualification, whether for Paris Saint-Germain or Brest.
And the information you’ll find in our PSG vs Brest prediction also gives no chance to Brest. If you look at international odds and sportsbooks offering various types of bets, we find some unsurprising odds: short for PSG’s qualification, and enormous odds for Brest. As you can guess, PSG is already in the round of 16 according to the sportsbooks!
- The sportsbooks are clear: PSG has a 99.99% chance of qualifying, and Brest has 0.01%
Real Madrid vs Manchester City: The King of the competition is the favorite
Now, for the biggest clash of these Champions League playoffs, featuring two of the favorites in our Champions League prediction. The first leg lived up to expectations with a total of 5 goals and many other chances throughout the match, especially for the Madrid side. However, Real only won by one goal (2-3) and will have to ensure victory again tomorrow night. Another win would not only validate our but also their qualification for the round of 16.
For this, the "Casa Blanca" is obviously the big favorite with the sportsbooks, as the short odds would suggest. The loss at Etihad before this trip to Bernabeu has indeed made things much harder for the Sky Blues, whose odds to qualify for the round of 16 remain high. Will we see another historic night between Real and Man City?
- Real Madrid has an 86.9% chance of securing their spot in the round of 16
- As for Man City, sportsbooks give them a 23.5% chance of succeeding
PSV Eindhoven vs Juventus: A local exploit?
The final match of the evening and the Champions League playoffs. We finish with a close match, as Juventus won by the smallest margin at home against PSV Eindhoven. Everything is still possible for the second leg (and even the third of the season overall), and the Dutch club will have to pull off an exploit despite a long injury list (which you will find in our PSV Eindhoven vs Juventus prediction).
PSV is logically not the favorite to secure their place in the round of 16, while Juventus’s qualification is offered at short odds by online sports betting sites. Will we see another dramatic turn of events, as this competition has been reserved for us for many years, or will logic prevail?
- PSV has a 37% chance of turning the tide and reaching the round of 16
- Juventus, on the other hand, has a 74% chance of qualifying according to the sportsbooks
