Five best goalscorer bets from the Champions League Round of 16 First Legs
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The Champions League knockout phase gets underway properly this week. Playoff ties gave us some action to tide us over until the round of 16, which contains some mouthwatering ties, including a Madrid derby and a showdown between the Bundesliga’s two best teams.
Many soccer predictions are inevitably focused on which teams will progress and how many goals will be scored in each match. We are taking a slightly different angle with this piece by looking at the best value goal scorer picks for Tuesday and Wednesday’s matches.
Kylian Mbappe to score anytime -- +135 at FanDuel
Kylian Mbappé has the highest expected goals per 90 minutes in the Champions League so far this season. The Frenchman started his Real Madrid career slower than the Los Blancos faithful will have hoped, but he has well and truly hit form with 14 goals since Jan. 12.
Mbappé scored a hat-trick in the second leg against Manchester City to take him to seven goals in the Champions League this season.
It is, of course, the small matter of the Madrid derby in the round of 16 – Mbappé scored and took three shots when the teams matched up earlier this season.
Antoine Griezmann to score or assist -- +200 at DraftKings
With nine shots over his last four Champions League matches and two goal involvements in his last three appearances, Antoine Griezmann is a good bet at this price.
Real Madrid’s 17.8 expected goals against is the most of any team to reach the last 16. Griezmann has 19 career goal involvements against Real, and there’s no question he will get opportunities as a creator and finisher facing a Real team that has struggled at the back all season.
If you’re really confident in Griezmann’s ability to impact this match, it’s worth looking at the +290 price to score anytime. The former Barcelona man is sixth in non-penalty expected goals per 90 in the Champions League.
Lautaro Martínez to score anytime -- +140 at FanDuel
Lautaro Martínez has taken 22 shots in his last six Serie A matches for only one goal. After netting a hat-trick in his last Champions League appearance, the Argentina international will be pleased to see the return of the Champions League.
It’s a favorable matchup for Martinez to regain his goal-scoring touch, and it’s fair to say he’s due.
Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava, and RB Salzburg are the only teams to concede more goals than Feyenoord in this year’s Champions League. The Dutch side conceded multiple goals in six of their eight matches in the first round of the competition.
Just six players left in the competition have recorded more expected goals per 90 than Martínez. A quiet period by his standards unlocks some excellent odds for this bet at +140 with FanDuel.
Ousmane Dembélé to score anytime -- +165 at FanDuel
Fourth in Champions League expected goals per 90 and with 18 Ligue 1 goals to his name, Ousmane Dembélé is having a belated breakout season at 27 years old.
No one has been taking more shots in the Champions League than Dembélé’s 4.9 per match. He’s scored in each of his last three appearances, taking him to 18 since PSG’s season resumed after the winter break.
Liverpool delivered a dominant showing in the league phase, but Dembélé is arguably the most in-form player on the planet right now and this Liverpool defense has shown vulnerability at points this season.
Robert Lewandowski to score two or more goals – +470 at FanDuel
Robert Lewandowski scored one goal on seven shots in Barcelona’s 4-0 win over Real Sociedad last time out. Lewandowski’s 1.1 expected goals per 90 is the highest of any Champions League player, and he’s scored the second-most goals in the competition with nine.
There have been nine occasions this season where Lewandowski has scored multiple goals in a match. Four of those have come in the Champions League.
With 15 shots in his last three La Liga matches, there hasn’t been a downturn in Lewandowski’s number of chances per match despite his goal-scoring marginally slowing down in the new year.
Barcelona won 5-4 when they faced Benfica in January, with Lewandowski scoring twice. A repeat of that match is unlikely, but another high-scoring fixture is inevitable, which makes Lewandowski a superb price in this market.
Alternatively, he’s available at +2400 to score a hat-trick. Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo are the only players with more Champions League hat-tricks.
