UCL Goal Averages & Betting Stats: What can we learn from the new Champions League?

UCL Goal Averages & Betting Stats: What can we learn from the new Champions League? 

Ahead of the current renewal of Europe’s most prestigious soccer competition, changes were made. The reason for these changes? Well, you can be the judge of that, though I’m sure it has nothing to do with squeezing yet more money out of what was already a rather chunky cash cow. Anyway, onto the stats. 

More games being played 

Thanks to the change in format, the Champions League now features more teams, meaning that each match-day contains more games. At the start of the competition a year ago, using the old format, 12 matches would be played on any given group-stage match-day. 

This time around, with the new format, the group stage has become the league phase, whereby teams line up in two bigger leagues, as opposed to smaller sets of groups. This means that during the first phase of the competition, every team plays eight games. Two more than they did under last year’s rules. 

Does more games mean more goals? 

Well, naturally, the answer is yes. More games does mean more goals. Compared to this stage of the competition last year, more goals are being scored. 

After two rounds of group-stage games last season, a total of 93 goals had been scored. This season, after two rounds of league-phase games, a total of 113 goals have been scored. That’s an increase of 21.5%. 

However, does more games mean that more goals are being scored on average? In other words has the average number of goals scored per game gone up this year? The answer here is a resounding yes too. 

Average goals scored after two UCL match-days: 

• 2023-24 - 2.90 goals scored per game after two rounds of games
• 2024/25 - 3.13 goals scored per game after two rounds of games

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More goals means more fun for fans, right? 

You might think that an increase in goals per game can only be a positive, but is that the case when we scratch beneath the surface? 

Increasing the number of teams was always going to mean increasing the chasm between the worst and the best in the competition. 

In terms of goals, what this has seemingly done is increase the number of clean sheets in games and the increase has been quite dramatic. After two matches at this stage last season, we were seeing at least one shutout recorded in 34.37% of games. 

This season, we’re seeing an average of at least one clean sheet in a very chunky 58.33% of games. For a neutral, the fan who wants to see excitement and goals all round, that’s not great, not at all. 

How does the BTTS picture look? 

One of the most popular markets for soccer bettors is ‘Both Teams to Score’, also known as ‘BTTS’. Let’s see what the changes in UCL format have done for the BTTS picture? Has the picture altered dramatically? Or does it look the same?

Things have most certainly changed, and not for the better, at least not for those looking to either bet on or witness goals go in at both ends. 

After two group-stage rounds last season, both teams were scoring in an average of 68.75% games. This year, it's pretty bleak. So far, after two league-phase rounds, only 

What about total goal markets, did I hear you say?  That’s a great question. Let’s take a look at the answer.  

Games containing more than three goals: 

• 2023/24 - Over 2.5 Goals in 62.5% of games
• 2024/25 - Over 2.5 Goals in 66.66% of games

As the stats above show, if you’re into betting on high-scoring games without covering the ‘Both Teams to Score’ option, then chances are, you’ll have done slightly better from a pure win/loss point of view than last season. 

However, while the ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ picture looks a little brighter, it’s not so great for the ‘Over 3.5 Goals’ market. Last season, after two group-stage rounds, 50% of games had seen four or more goals go in. 

This season, after two league-phase rounds, four or more goals have been scored in just 41.66% of games. That’s quite the decrease.

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All images in this article are from the IMAGO website.