Tour Championship 2024 Best Bets and Outrights

Tour Championship 2024

This week on the PGA Tour, the best in the business head to Atlanta, Georgia, where they’ll walk the hallowed turf of East Lake Golf Club.

It’s time for the Tour Championship, which is the last leg of the FedEx Cup. Can Scottie Scheffler take advantage of being the leader ahead of this final event? Or will we see an upset.

As always, we’re here to talk about the best betting opportunities, but before we get to that, let’s quickly tackle the format for this week, which is a little different.

Like typical PGA Tour events, the Tour Championship is a stroke-play event, but this week, players don’t all start from zero, oh no. Based on their FedEx Cup standings, determined by performances over the season, players will begin the tournament with varying scores.

Tour Championship Format

Here’s how it works:

Scottie Scheffler will start at -10, with a two-shot lead over Xander Schauffele on -8, who starts a shot in front of Hideki Matsuyama, who starts a shot in front of Keegan Bradley, who after his win last week, will begin with a one-shot lead over Ludvig Aberg, who will tee off at -5, a single shot in front of five players starting at -4.

The five players starting at -4 are:

• Rory McIlroy
• Collin Morikawa
• Wyndham Clark
• Sam Burns
• Patrick Cantlay

There are then five players starting at -3. These are:

• Sungjae Im
• Sahith Theegala
• Shane Lowry
• Adam Scott
• Tony Finau

Five players will start at -2:

• Byeong Hun An
• Viktor Hovland
• Russell Henley
• Akshay Bhatia
• Robert MacIntyre

Five players will start at -1:

• Billy Horschel
• Tommy Fleetwood
• Sepp Straka
• Matthieu Pavon
• Taylor Pendrith

And finally, five players will begin at level par:

• Chris Kirk
• Tom Hoge
• Aaron Rai
• Christian Bezuidenhout
• Justin Thomas

I know what you’re thinking, Scheffler is incredibly tough to beat under normal circumstances, let alone when he starts in front, and you’d be damn right. Let’s be real for a second, if the world number one is anywhere near his best this week, he’s going to come home in front, it’s as simple as that.

Am I going to bet on him to get the job done at +110? No, that’s not really my style, but can I confidently bet on anyone else to upset the highest ranked player on the planet given the starting stroke format? Absolutely not.

Anyway, there are a few bets that catch the eye ahead of the action at East Lake this week, so here goes:

Sam Burns Top 10 Finish (With Starting Strokes): +115 with FanDuel

I put Sam Burns up to hit the top 10 last week and he delivered in a big way by posting a final-round of 65 to finish in a tie for second.

With that effort under his belt, Burns will be looking to kick on this week and for my money, he’s well worth betting on to once again feature prominently on the leaderboard.

The 28-year-old didn’t only play well last week, giving himself a confidence-boost ahead of this event, but he’s no stranger to playing well at East Lake.

He finished fourth in this event last season, which bodes well, as does the fact that he ranks as the second-best in the field for strokes gained: putting at this venue in the last eight seasons.

We know that the man from Louisiana is a serious contender when he’s hot with the putter. He was just that at this tournament last season, just as he was last week, which for me, is a recipe for a strong performance.

Looking at the odds, given the fact that he’s in form and already starts in the top ten thanks to the format used here, Burns looks a little generously priced at odds of +115.

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Tony Finau Top 10 Finish (With Starting Strokes): +175 with FanDuel

Another man I want on my side in the ‘Top 10 Finish’ market this week is Tony Finau. Far from disgraced by finishing T13 at the BMW Championship last week, Finau has form at East Lake.

In 2017, the Utah native finished seventh, which he repeated in 2019, before finishing ninth in 2022. That’s three top-ten finishes in his last seven appearances, while he’s been close on the other occasions too.

He starts just outside the top ten at -3, but if we look at the fact that he ranks 11th for strokes gained: total at East Lake since 2016, and consider also that several of those above him on that list start with a worse score, odds of +175 certainly catch the eye.

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Rory McIlroy Top 5 Finish (With Starting Strokes): +160 with FanDuel

Last but absolutely not least, Rory deserves some love this week. Few players in this field have handled East Lake better than the four-time major champion in recent times.

McIlroy is the third-best player in the field in terms of strokes gained: total at East Lake since 2016, topping the list for strokes gained: off-the-tee, ranking fifth for both strokes gained: tee-to-green and strokes gained: approach. Such stats should not be ignored, not for a second.

We know that the Northern Irishman likes this event, he’s won it three times, most recently in 2022, while he’s finished in the top five on a further occasion as well.

He’s just one shot off a top-five spot with the starting strokes format, so he’s poised to attack. Given his record at this place, I’m betting that he’ll do that and get it right, finishing in the top five.