The Masters Best Bets and Outrights
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
Over the last few months, several PGA Tour events have taken place, but for the most part, the line-ups have been on the low-key side, except for THE PLAYERS, which is known in golfing circles as the unofficial fifth major. In other words, it’s a very prestigious event.
This week, though, things go up another gear. For the first time since the action at TPC Sawgrass, we’re going to see the best in the business all competing in one event, including the big-name stars that jumped ship and left the PGA Tour for the riches of LIV Golf. Let the fun begin.
The Betting Market
Well, what a surprise, Scottie Scheffler heads into the Masters as the red-hot favorite, priced no bigger than +400 to retain the title that he won for the second time in 2024.
Can anybody stop the current world number one and Olympic gold medallist? To be honest, Scheffler will likely go close. In fact, it will be rather surprising if the man who almost always rises to the occasion on the biggest stage fails to play well this week, but hey, he’s not a robot, so you never know.
Not too far behind Scheffler in the outright betting is Rory McIlroy, who has never won this event, but who is a multiple major winner, one who has gone close before and one who arrives in good form having recently won the prestigious PLAYERS.
Ahead of the 2025 Masters, here are the outright odds from the top sportsbooks:
- Scottie Scheffler +400
- Rory McIlroy +650
- Jon Rahm +1400
- Collin Morikawa +1600
- Ludvig Aberg +1800
- Xander Schauffele +2000
- Bryson DeChambeau +2000
- Justin Thomas +2200
- Joaquin Nieman +2800
- All other players +3000 or bigger
What does a Masters winner look like?
Before we get into some attractive bet ahead of the 2025 Masters, we should take a minute to think about what a Masters winner looks like. Unlike the other three majors, the Masters is always played at Augusta National, meaning that most of the players involved this week have lots of previous form to delve into, so are there any patterns for us to consider?
For starters, in the majors, the best players usually dominate, and that’s particularly true at Augusta, where time and time again, we’ve seen big-name winners. In recent years, non-top players simply haven’t landed a glove on the big dogs.
Interestingly, each of the last three winners of the tournament were ranked inside the top three according to the Official World Golf Ranking, while eight of the last 10 winners were ranked 12th or better.
It’s also worth stating that previous Augusta experience is highly valuable, which isn’t exactly surprising. Only two of the last eight green-jacket winners had played in the Masters less than three times before emerging victorious.
Here are some key Masters trends that give us an idea of what the 2025 Masters champion will look like:
- Eight of the last ten winners had played in three or more Masters before winning.
- All of the last ten winners had made the cut the season before putting the green jacket on.
- None of the last ten winners were ranked lower than 25th in the Official World Golf Ranking at the time of their victory.
- Four of the last five winners had finished in the top ten at least once in the five years before winning.
- Six of the last ten winners have finished in the top five at least once before at Augusta.
- Seven of the last ten winners had previously finished in the top ten at least once.
- Nine of the last ten winners had previously finished in the top 20 at Augusta at least once in the five years preceding their victory.
OK, so now that we know that a low-ranking winner who hasn’t shown much in the way of previous Masters form is highly unlikely, let’s look at those players that make the most appeal from a betting point of view.
Collin Morikawa to Win: +1600 with FanDuel
I’ll waste no time in saying that Collin Morikawa is very much my idea of a player who goes very close at Augusta this week. The two-time major winner ticks far too many boxes to be considered a genuine +1600 shot in the betting. For my money, the world number four should be a good bit shorter here.
Morikawa has never won the Masters before, but he knows how to get over the line in the majors, it’s not as if he’s without form at Augusta, finishing T10 or better in each of the last three years, posting a career-best third-place finish a year ago.
Of those to have played the event at least twice before, only four players have a better 18-hole average score than Morikawa, who is also the fourth-best player in the field for strokes gained: total at Augusta since 2016.
Right now, there’s also no better player on the PGA Tour in terms of birdie average, while Morikawa sits behind only one PGA Tour player (McIlroy) for strokes gained: total this season. He’s even outperformed favorite Scottie Scheffler in that respect.
Stoking the Morikawa fire further is the fact that the 28-year-old arrives in solid form, finishing T10 at THE PLAYERS recently, after finishing second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
For a few years now, I’ve seen this player as a Masters winner waiting to happen. At odds of +1600, I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
Bet on the 2025 Masters with FanDuel
Xander Schauffele Top 10 Finish: +160 with FanDuel
Another of the top dogs that looks attractively priced to play well this week is Xander Schauffele. Now, I really wouldn’t put anybody off betting on the 2024 Open Championship winner to scoop the big prize this week, especially at odds of +2000, but I’m taking him to make the top 10 at +160.
Frankly, for my money, Schauffele should be a +100 shot to hit the top 10 this week, so +160 is absolutely worth snapping up. Like Morikawa, he’s a high-ranking player, who has shown a clean fondness for playing at Augusta, finishing second in 2019, posting three top-10’s since then, finishing third in 2021.
The man who also won the PGA Championship last season ranks as the sixth-best player in the field for strokes gained: total at Augusta since 2016, which isn’t easy to ignore, while if we count only those two have played in the Masters two or more times, only five players in the field boast a better 18-hole average score. He’s a clear top-10 candidate, even more so than odds of +160 suggest.
Corey Conners Top 10 Finish: +320 with FanDuel
Corey Conners only just about fits in on the top-25 trend, coming into the tournament as the man ranked 25th in the world right now, but that’s OK. After all, this man is not short on recent Masters form, while he turns up having played some great golf of late.
Unlike the two players above, the Canadian has never won a major, though if he ever serious challenges in one, it’ll likely be this one. He’s enjoyed himself at Augusta before, finishing T6 back in 2022, his best ever performance in a major. However, that was no stand-alone effort, with Conners finishing in the top 10 three times since 2020.
Previously ranking as the second best in the world back in May 2024, Conners also goes to Georgia having had his game in great shape of late, delivering pre-Masters results of T18 at the Valero Texas Open, T8 at the Valspar Championship, T6 at THE PLAYERS, finishing third at the Arnold Palmer. Such form means he’ll do for me as a top-10 bet at odds of +320.
