2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Best Bets & Props
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
After the Vegas Golden Knights lifted the Stanley Cup in 2023, 16 teams will battle for the iconic trophy in 2024. Sportsbooks have a catalog of odds available for the NHL postseason, including series-correct score picks, player props and much more. Feel free to visit our NHL match picks and predictions!
Let’s take a look at the best value bets for the 2024 NHL Playoffs:
New York Rangers to beat the Washington Capitals 4-0 at +400 with DraftKings
With a league-best 55 wins in the regular season, many have the New York Rangers as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. The Washington Capitals have been playing good hockey of late, winning four of their last five to make the postseason, but the Rangers are clearly the much more talented team.
Washington had a -37 goal difference in the regular year, and only three teams generated fewer expected goals. While some will see the Rangers’ regular season as unsustainable due to how drastically they overachieved their underlying numbers, this team is simply more talented than the Capitals and that should be very clear throughout a best-of-seven series.
The Capitals saw their Playoff streak end in 2023. As good as Alex Ovechkin still is, he’s not the player he was at his peak, and Washington has their work cut out to get a win on the board against a mega-talented Rangers team. We are taking New York to record their first sweep since 2006.
Nathan MacKinnon to have the most shots in the series at +140 with BetMGM
The overwhelming betting favorite to win regular season MVP, Nathan MacKinnon is curiously +140 to have the most shots in the series between the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets.
MacKinnon had 404 shots in the regular season, which was 22 more than any other player. Colorado was sixth in total shots created. While the Jets were above average when it came to preventing opponent shots, they are not going to be able to keep MacKinnon quiet over this series.
In three games against the Jets this season, MacKinnon has a total of 13 shots. Across those matchups, no one can better MacKinnon’s tally. Yes, the Jets are favored to win the series, but this price still seems very reasonable given MacKinnon’s shot production.
Colorado needs a massive series from the soon-to-be MVP if they are to stage an upset.
Tampa Bay Lightning to win two Playoff rounds at +430 with FanDuel
Back-to-back champions in 2020 and 2021, the Tampa Bay Lightning have dropped off over the last couple of years. Eliminated in the first round last season, they have a seemingly unfavorable matchup against the 52-win Florida Panthers in the first round of the 2024 postseason.
Tampa Bay is the clear underdog in the battle of the Floridian franchises, but it would be foolish to write them off. Their expected goal metrics are solid at both ends of the ice – their numbers for the regular season indicate they were a bit unlucky to only win 45 games.
A poor end to the regular year might make some bettors wary of backing the Lightning here. Yes, it will take a special performance to beat the Panthers and whichever team they face in the next round. But this team is capable of that.
Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point have been playing well all season, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy can keep them in games single-handedly.
The 18.9% implied probability seems harsh for a team with so much recent success.
Toronto Maple Leafs to beat the Boston Bruins at +105 with DraftKings
The Toronto Maple Leafs lost all four regular-season games against the Boston Bruins this season. That contributes to the Leafs being series underdogs in the first round despite winning only one fewer game than the Bruins.
Toronto was the league’s most potent attack, however, with the most goals scored and the second-best expected goals mark. Boston’s expected metrics were around league average on both sides. Only the Jets and Canucks exceeded their underlying numbers more dramatically.
Boston has historically got the better of Toronto in these contests. It’s easy to build a narrative that the Bruins will be too experienced and too efficient for the Maple Leafs. Perhaps that plays out, but we think Toronto has more than a fighting chance in this series. We like the value at +105 – bettors should also consider backing the Maple Leafs to win 4-3 at +500 with BetMGM.
