Motivated Rashford increases interest in Aston Villa outright markets
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Marcus Rashford needed to get away from Manchester United. Aston Villa provided the England international with an escape route through a six-month loan deal with a £40 million option to buy. Villa are paying 75% of Rashford’s wages, which rank among the highest in the Premier League.
With two points from the last nine available in the Premier League and six points off fourth, not many soccer predictions are going to back Unai Emery’s side to qualify for next season’s edition of the Champions League.
Only four points separate Villa from fifth and sixth. The departures of Jhon Duran and Diego Carlos in January were outweighed by their incomings. Rashford wasn’t the only big name to join the club with Donyell Malen arriving permanently from Borussia Dortmund, and Axel Disasi and Marco Asensio signing on loan from Chelsea and PSG, respectively.
Villa’s Struggling Attack
The attack needed reinforcements. Villa are ninth in expected goals generated and 12th in goals scored in the Premier League. Ollie Watkins, despite scoring 10 times in the league, has been hot and cold, with three separate goalless runs of four matches or longer.
With Duran departing, Morgan Rogers is the only other Villa player with more than three league goals. Ross Barkley’s 0.33 expected goals per 90 minutes is the second-best on the team. Rogers (1.6) is second to Watkins’ 2.5 shots per match.
Villa have scored fewer than two goals in 12 of their 24 league fixtures. They scored two or more in 22 of their 38 league matches last term.
Rashford’s Potential Impact
With 11 league goals since the start of last season, Rashford might not seem like the perfect man to fix Villa’s attacking woes. He’s averaged 0.16 expected goals per 90 this season.
It’s not long ago Rashford was one of the league’s most dangerous forwards. He had 17 goals and five assists in 2022/23. His 0.48 non-penalty expected goals per 90 ranked sixth among all Premier League players.
Rashford was taking 3.1 shots per Premier League match while completing 1.5 dribbles. Rogers (1.8) is the only Villa player averaging more completed dribbles this season.
Manchester United rewarded Rashford with a massive contract at the end of his brilliant 2022/23 campaign. His form has tailed off since then, with some suggesting he lacks motivation at Old Trafford.
Publicly criticized by Ruben Amorim and unable to get a move to one of Europe’s top clubs, Villa should get a fully motivated version of Rashford.
This is not only a chance to prove himself to Amorim, but an opportunity to rebuild his value and land a big money move in the summer.
Rashford’s comments in his first interview with Villa TV made it clear he’s not planning to be at the club next season.
“Obviously it’s only short-term I’m here, so I want to make the most of my time here, and the only way to do that is by using my attributes and my skillset to help the team.”
Upwardly Mobile Villains
This could be a definitive few months in Rashford’s career. He seems to be well aware of the significance – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regain his 2022/23 form.
Villa’s attack isn’t dependent on Rashford getting back to his best.
Malen averaged 0.41 expected goals per 90 with Dortmund and has averaged a league goal every 150 minutes since the start of last season. Asensio posted 0.44 expected assists per 90 over 19.2 90s for PSG.
Ipswich, Liverpool, and Chelsea at home are followed by trips to Crystal Palace, Brighton, and Brentford. Villa’s new-look attack should see them pick up at least 12 points over that period.
A top-eight Champions League finish was invaluable, considering they took eight out of 24 available points in the matches directly after European commitments.
Emery now has more depth in attacking areas once the Champions League resumes, plus an attack with added creativity and firepower.
The stuttering form of teams around them makes FanDuel’s +3200 price for a top-four finish very appealing. We slightly prefer BetMGM’s +400 on a top-six placing, though, due to the number of teams competing for the top four.
