Copa America 2024 Outsiders: Which Surprise Teams Should You Bet On?
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Straight Forecast
Odds on the top teams to qualify from their groups are unappealing to the point of not being worth consideration. Argentina are -1600 to progress from their group at FanDuel, for instance.
Instead, we think the straight forecast market can be a good way to unlock some group-stage value. This wager requires that you choose the top-two finishers in the group for your Copa America prediction.
the straight forecast market can be a good way to unlock some group-stage value
For instance, taking Argentina to finish first and Chile to finish second comes in at +140. Chile are -160 to qualify, with Argentina all but guaranteed to make it through the group. Alternatively, you could back Ecuador to top Group B ahead of Mexico at +330.
FanDuel is offering a +200 price on the USA to finish first ahead of Uruguay in Group C. There’s great value there – they are by far the two best teams in the group, and we could see the hosts taking all three points when the teams meet at Arrowhead Stadium on matchday three.
Exact Finish in Group Stage
Sportsbooks have different markets available for group-stage finishing positions. BetMGM allows us to wager on whether a team will finish last in their group. We think there is some value taking Mexico or Ecuador to finish bottom of Group B at +800 and +600 respectively.
Mexico have won just four of their last 12 matches. Those four wins were over Ghana, Honduras, Panama, and Bolivia. Ecuador’s form has been patchy. Reaching the quarters in 2016 and 2019 shows they have pedigree, but they are the only times they have made it out of the group stage since 1997.
Canada to finish second in Group A – priced at +190 with BetMGM – is intriguing, too. Peru and Chile deserve to be favored, but the Canadians could spring a surprise or two with Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David.
Winner & Golden Boot Double
If you’re not too keen on the odds available for a team to win the tournament, you can get a longer price by going for a tournament winner and Golden Boot double. This market is available at BetMGM and FanDuel.
The top goal scorer in the Copa América will invariably come from a team that makes it to the semifinals. These four teams play two more matches than any other team in the competition. While a player can buck this trend by filling their boots in the group stage, most top-scorer candidates are going to play for teams who compete deep into the tournament.
Of active players, Eduardo Vargas and Paolo Guerrero have the most goals scored in the Copa América on 14 apiece. Lionel Messi has 13 to his name, and he’s the betting favorite to win the award this time around.
Here are some of the best options in this market (odds from FanDuel):
- Argentina/Lautaro Martinez +2000
- Brazil/Lionel Messi +1300
- Argentina/ Darwin Núñez +2000
- Brazil/Christian Pulisic +12000
- Brazi/Endrick +5000
To Conceded the Most Goals
DraftKings offers a market on the team to concede the most goals. Costa Rica, owners of a poor defensive record and grouped with Colombia, Brazil, and Paraguay, have the shortest price at +500.
We would consider Canada at +900 here, though. They have just shipped four goals to the Netherlands and conceded four over two legs to Jamaica. They also lost 4-1 to Japan in a friendly, and conceded two goals to each of Guadeloupe and Cuba in last year’s Gold Cup.
With a mix of well-known players and others that some may be discovering for the first time, there are great odds to be found, so don't hesitate to try your luck!
