Oscar Night: Making the Best Value Picks for Movies’ Big Night
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Oscar Night: Making the Best Value Picks for Movies’ Big Night
If you’re a real movie buff, the Academy Awards is one of the biggest nights on the calendar for you. The Oscars are celebrating their 97th year, and movie fans have the opportunity to make a few wagers on some of the awards that will be handed out for this year’s crop of cinematic productions.
Best Picture: Conclave, +225 (DraftKings)
The value on Anora has completely fallen away because of the status of Sean Baker as the favorite for Best Director. That wouldn’t be enough on its own, except for one crucial detail: Conclave director Edward Berger wasn’t even nominated in that category.
And historically, that’s been a tough sell on Oscar Night. Only six films in 96 years have managed to win Best Picture without having the director nominated for Best Director. But Conclave holds decent odds because of its wins elsewhere. It won at both BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild shows, which is normally a good sign for the Academy Awards.
If it’s not Conclave, it’s likely going to be Anora who claims the prize. But the value of Anora is no better than -190 with any of the top sportsbooks, and that’s just not worth it when Conclave has won elsewhere. This makes sense to back the reasonable upset, even going against the history.
Best Director: Sean Baker, Anora (-175, DraftKings)
Without Berger around, Baker is the favorite for good reason. Only three of the past 50 winners for best director managed to win without winning the Director’s Guild Awards, and Baker got the win over The Brutalist director Brady Corbet. Anora is likely to win at least one of the categories, and the odds are better for Best Director.
That’s because Corbet’s performance was seen as strong on The Brutalist, and he has won several awards this year. But with how much of a predictor the DGA has been, Baker makes more sense.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (-250, DraftKings)
The Screen Actors Guild did bettors a favor by giving the win to Timothee Chalamet for A Complete Unknown. That’s been the one major exception in the awards season, which has heavily favored Brody for his performance. The Brutalist has been nominated in all of the major categories, and it’s the No. 3 favorite to win Best Picture at reasonable odds (+650, FanDuel), compared to A Complete Unknown’s true longshot status.
That makes Brody the better play here. If The Brutalist gets shut out of both Best Picture and Best Director, Brody should ensure that it brings home a win here.
Best Actress: Demi Moore, The Substance (-240, FanDuel)
There’s just not enough momentum here to knock Moore out of the top spot. She’s won praise all season for her performance in The Substance, and it would take a major upset for either Mikey Madison (Anora) or Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) to take this award away from her. She’s been winning award after award for a reason, and it likely continues here. This is one where you just have to either lay the juice or pass on the category.
Best Visuals: Wicked (+2300, FanDuel)
This is a pure value play. Dune won for best visuals three years ago, and its successor Dune Part Two is a very strong contender in this category. In fact, it’s such a favorite that it’s not even worth betting: the best odds you’re going to find are -900 at FanDuel.
Instead, take a flier on Wicked: it was a visually stunning movie in its own right, it’s been nominated in more categories and the odds are incredible for it being one of the top three contenders in this category. It’s probably going to be Dune Part Two’s to lose, but it’s much better to take a chance on a big win with a reasonable underdog than bet on such a heavy favorite.
Where to watch the Oscars:
TV: ABC will broadcast the ceremony live, including red carpet coverage starting at 5:00 pm.
Streaming Platform: The ceremony will be available on the Max platform (formerly HBO Max).
