Netflix's Receiver: Player Props On the Show's Stars
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
If you’ve been watching “Receiver” on Netflix, you’re not alone. The documentary series has shot up to the top 10 on Netflix, fueled by football fans starved for some gridiron action.
With the preseason just around the corner, futures bets are out and available, and FanDuel and DraftKings have jumped on the success of “Receiver” by including futures plays on all of the pass-catchers featured on the show. Here’s a look at how you might want to play these props.
Season Leader: Can a Receiver Alumni Lead the League?
The biggest prize for wide receiver props is the league’s season leader in receiving yards, and last year, Miami’s Tyreek Hill led all pass catchers with 1,799 yards. But there’s reason to believe that he might be in for a slight regression this year that gives the “Receiver” crew a chance. Miami’s schedule worked to Hill’s benefit last season, as he feasted on Washington, Denver, Carolina and the New York Giants. Those teams all disappear, replaced by good defenses such as Cleveland, San Francisco and Jacksonville. The AFC East is also brutal for receivers, as Buffalo, the Jets and New England all defend the pass well.
Minnesota star Justin Jefferson (+750) has the best chance to lead all receivers in 2024
Minnesota star Justin Jefferson (+750) has the best chance to lead all receivers in 2024. He finished 19th in 2023, but he only played in 10 games. His 15.8 yards per catch was better than Hill’s, and if he’d caught as many passes as he did in 2023, he’d have topped 2,000 yards. The change from Kirk Cousins isn’t ideal, but the Vikings took care of Jefferson by signing Sam Darnold. Darnold has never really gotten a fair shot to develop, and he’s shown flashes of brilliance with New York and Carolina. His strengths fit well with Jefferson’s, and the LSU product remains a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.
If there’s something that can derail Jefferson besides injury, it’s Minnesota’s schedule. The Vikings face a brutal four-week stretch where they see San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay and the Jets early in the season, which could derail Jefferson’s chances before they begin. But the only road game is Green Bay, and at least the Vikings get the visit to Wisconsin out of the way before the weather turns nasty. Down the stretch, the schedule could help Jefferson, as Minnesota’s only outdoor game after Thanksgiving is in Seattle against a middling Seahawk defense.
Unlike Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown doesn’t have a quarterback change to worry about.
If it isn’t Jefferson, the next-best play from “Receiver” is Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, who goes off at +1000. Unlike Jefferson, St. Brown doesn’t have a quarterback change to worry about. But the back half of the schedule is less friendly to St. Brown. The annual trip to Chicago comes in December, and the Lions’ first-place finish means they’ll see Dallas, Buffalo and Tampa Bay instead of the two New York teams and Atlanta. In a tight battle, that could make the difference.
Check out Receiver odds at DraftKings
How Should You Bet Each Receiver’s Prop Options?
Justin Jefferson
At 1,300.5 yards, Jefferson’s total represents incredible value if he stays on the field. Jefferson is paying for his injury last year and the quarterback change. But he’s never had a season of less than 1,400 yards when he’s played a full season. As long as he’s back to full strength — and he certainly appeared that way when he came back — this total is very much within reach.
His touchdown total is a bit trickier. His number of 7.5 is right in line with his three non-injury seasons, where he averaged 8.3 touchdowns per year. You’d get even money to take him over his touchdown total, but that’s not as strong a play as his yardage.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
It’s hard to see St. Brown getting held below 7.5 touchdowns unless he gets injured. The Lions didn’t make big moves on the offensive side of the football, believing they’ve got the skill positions figured out. That means they’re counting on St. Brown to be their big-play pass catcher this year. Other than tight end Sam LaPorta, Detroit doesn’t have a proven threat to score with the pass.
That didn’t change this year, so you can expect Jared Goff to target St. Brown early and often. Unless Jameson Williams has a breakout season, St. Brown should also top his yardage total of 1,250.5.
Davante Adams
Whether you take the over or under on Adams depends on whether you believe he’ll still be wearing silver and black when the season gets going. If you think he’ll still be in a Raider uniform in September, you’ll want to take the under. The Raiders are going to go through a lot of struggles with either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell at quarterback in 2024.
The Raiders are going to go through a lot of struggles in the QB position
They whiffed on the quarterbacks in the draft, and they seem fine with the idea of letting things play out and possibly getting Carson Beck or Shedeur Sanders in 2025.
They might go even further by trading Adams, as the Jets need a receiver and are believed to be interested. A reunion with Aaron Rodgers likely sends Adams over the 1,000-yard mark. He’s a big risk, though, because he’s now on the wrong side of 30 and is no longer a No. 1 option. If he stays in Las Vegas, his chances to hit his total take a big hit.
George Kittle
Kittle’s yardage play is a roller coaster, as there’s always the possibility of him getting hurt. He’s only played in 16 games twice in seven years, and those were both years where he exceeded 1,000 receiving yards. He only has to get to 750.5 to beat this total, which he’s done in five of his seven years. But he’s also going to turn 31 during the season, and Kittle was clearly slowing down at the end of last year.
He says he’s dropped 30 pounds in the offseason and should be in top shape for this year. However, his importance to the 49ers around the end zone says that going over 5.5 touchdowns is the better bet. He’s exceeded that number in three straight seasons and has a strong connection with Brock Purdy. If he stays on the field, he should hit that number.
Deebo Samuel
Samuel’s the lone receiver from “Receiver” who doesn’t currently have a yardage prop play listed, so be sure to check back with FanDuel to see if that changes. But Samuel’s biggest issue is that he hasn’t put together two consecutive strong seasons. He had a great rookie campaign, then got hurt in year two and only managed 391 yards in seven games.
Since then, he played full seasons in 2021 and 2023 while missing four games in 2022. In odd-numbered years, Samuel has 16 touchdowns; in even-numbered years, it’s just three. It might just be an odd coincidence, or it might be a trend where he can’t put together consecutive years. I’d probably stay away entirely, but if I need to make a pick, I’d take plus money on under 4.5 touchdowns. Given his history, that’s the value play.
