How to construct a high-value MLB division winner parlay
by Tyler Doty
Preseason MLB predictions are often focused on the winners of each division. Winning a division grants an automatic playoff berth, which still carries importance even with additional wild-card spots in each league.
In some years, there are several heavy favorites for their division. That’s not the case in 2025, however, with the Los Angeles Dodgers as the only team shorter than -105 at FanDuel as of Feb. 19. The other five divisions are expected to be competitive.
Three teams in the AL West are between +170 and +200. Four are between +210 and +310 in the AL Central, and the top three in the NL East are +135, +195, and +195.
Below, we have combined four parlay picks to give us a +3531 division winner parlay.
New York Yankees +100
The New York Yankees won the AL East by three games last season, despite Gerrit Cole making only 17 starts.
The Baltimore Orioles – New York’s closest challenger – went 42-46 from June 20 onwards and lost Corbin Burnes in the offseason with no direct replacement.
Sure, the Boston Red Sox have been aggressive all winter, but they are still projected for six fewer fWAR than the Yankees. Boston also could be dealing with a discontent star if Rafael Devers remains fixated on playing third base.
It would have been easy to be pessimistic about the Yankees’ chances in 2025 after Juan Soto went to the New York Mets. Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, and Max Fried ensure the Yankees have a deeper roster, however, which is more than ready to win the AL East for a fourth time in seven years.
Minnesota Twins -- +210
Depth Charts projects the Minnesota Twins for the ninth-most fWAR in 2025. Minnesota is projected for 4.6 more than the Detroit Tigers, 5.8 more than the Kansas City Royals, and 6.6 more than the Cleveland Guardians.
Health projections for Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa are generous. The rotation suddenly looks a bit flimsy if Pablo López or Joe Ryan miss more than a handful of starts. The Twins have notable downside – especially on the injury front – but this is a more talented team than the sportsbooks are giving them credit for.
Yes, an 82-80 record last season was a disappointment after competing for the division lead for much of the year. Minnesota has won three division titles in the last three years, though, and they have the most proven MLB talent of any AL Central team.
The Guardians often find a way to amass 85+ wins even when they look undermanned, but their projections are mediocre for a reason. Both the Royals and Tigers failed to do enough this winter to build on their playoff appearances in 2024.
Chicago Cubs -105
Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Justin Turner, and Matthew Boyd represent an overhaul of the Chicago Cubs’ roster. Chicago has added an impressive pool of veterans to its core of Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, and Shota Imanaga.
There’s a lot to like about this Cubs roster, even if it’s not quite of the same level as the National League’s top four teams. Chicago is still by far the strongest team in the NL Central, making -105 an excellent price in this market.
The bullpen has been sufficiently rebuilt with Pressly, Brasier, Colin Rea, and Caleb Thielbar. Matt Shaw and Michael Busch bring some upside next to the reliable, experienced heads of Swanson, Turner, and Tucker.
Seattle Mariners +200
You can take the top three teams for a +1110 parlay at FanDuel. Adding the Seattle Mariners at +2000 gets the odds up to +3531.
Seattle has been criticized for its quiet offseason. Donovan Solano was the only addition to an offense which struggled to consistently score runs last season. The Mariners also haven’t won the division since 2001.
There’s still value taking Seattle at this price, though.
They have 88.25 wins per season over the last four years. The Houston Astros have been significantly weakened with Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker departing. The Texas Rangers didn’t do anything ground-breaking this offseason and are relying heavily on high mileage starting pitchers.
In Julio Rodríguez, the Mariners have a genuine MVP-caliber talent in the middle of their lineup. Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, and Jorge Polanco can be solid everyday players. Their offense doesn’t have the upside of the Rangers, but their pitching staff can be relied on more than either of the Texas teams.
Don’t be surprised if the Mariners have the best rotation in the American League. They’re a great bet to win the AL West if their starters are all healthy.
