2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball: Coming Down to The Wire
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
NCAA Men’s Basketball: Coming Down to The Wire
In the Big Ten, the Michigan schools are having an interesting back and forth, punctuated by consecutive buzzer beaters. Michigan State faced an unappealing prospect of overtime against a good Maryland squad on the road, but Tre Holloman found the mesh from halfcourt, lifting the Spartans to a win and holding serve atop the Big Ten.
Michigan then came up with a better response, not in terms of difficulty, but in terms of meaning. The Wolverines trailed Rutgers by a point with three seconds left in Ann Arbor, needing a basket to win. They came up with an open — but very long — 3-point shot that found nothing but net, saving the Wolverines from a damaging home loss. Michigan didn’t have the luxury of overtime off a miss; it had to be perfect. And indeed it was.
In the SEC, Auburn has been pretty near perfect and is poised to put an end to the league race this weekend. With Alabama sitting on three losses, Auburn can wrap up the SEC regular season title by beating Kentucky in Lexington. At the same time, the Tide have to go to Knoxville and survive Tennessee. The SEC remains the deepest league in the nation by a mile, and three No. 1 seeds are still on the table.
Here’s a look at the weekend as a whole for your NCAA picks.
Auburn at Kentucky
The Tigers picked up right where they left off after losing to Florida. They proceeded to win at Alabama and then crushed Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi at home to firmly take control of the SEC race. Auburn has been on its own level for most of the season, only threatened really by Duke and Florida. The Tigers have three straight ranked opponents to close out the regular season, but that’s just life in the SEC. Auburn’s goal is to get a No. 1 seed, and a 2-1 finish likely does that.
Kentucky is an interesting case. The Wildcats are likely overseeded on the No. 3 line, but it’s because they have both a high ceiling and a low floor. When UK has been at its best, it has taken down Tennessee twice and picked off Florida. It also lost to both Texas and Vanderbilt, and while those aren’t terrible losses, the Commodores are barely in the field and the Longhorns are currently out. A win here would go a long way toward establishing Kentucky.
Texas Tech at Kansas
The Jayhawks haven’t fallen to the scrap heap, but all is certainly not well in Lawrence. Kansas not only won’t be the Big 12 champion, but the Jayhawks likely won’t have a double bye. If they don’t win here against the Red Raiders, they definitely won’t. With three games left, they still need to catch both of Iowa State and BYU to get into the top four, and that’s going to be tough with how hot the Cougars are.
Texas Tech remains the only Big 12 team to beat Houston. The Red Raiders would love to make a strong case for a No. 3 or even a No. 2 seed, and they’ll need a couple of strong weeks in a row to make that happen. Getting a win at Kansas would still look impressive to the committee.
Wisconsin at Michigan State
Wisconsin doesn’t have enough time to catch Michigan State or Michigan for the regular season title. But the Badgers can make a statement that they intend to be a force in Indianapolis for the Big Ten tournament. Wisconsin is currently set up on the bottom half of the bracket and wouldn’t see Michigan State until the tournament final. The Badgers have mostly been racking up wins, only falling in overtime to a desperate Oregon squad. And with how well they score the ball inside, they’re dangerous.
Michigan State also looks pretty dangerous, and this might be Tom Izzo’s best chance in years at a Big Ten title. The Spartans are set up beautifully to claim the crown, as they host Michigan on the final day. As long as they avoid tripping here or at Iowa, they’re likely going to be the Big Ten champions.
Illinois at Michigan
Around the country, top seeds are hoping that Illinois ends its season with a three-game losing streak. With the Fighting Illini currently just barely in the field, absolutely nobody wants to see Illinois in the second round. They’ve beaten Wisconsin, Missouri and UCLA and showed they could hang with Alabama and Tennessee. When healthy, they are dangerous.
But Illinois hasn’t been healthy in months. The flu has ravaged the Illini, which resulted in a 43-point loss to Duke in New York. And that’s what the top seeds are hoping the committee sees with Illinois. If the Illini drop this game, lose to Purdue and lose their first game in Indianapolis, that might happen.
Michigan needs to win to keep pace with Michigan State. After last year’s 3-17 season, the Wolverines are playing with house money in the Big Ten. But now that they’re this close, they want to win this.
Alabama at Tennessee
Rick Barnes got the better of Nate Oats in three straight matchups, including both times last year. But Oats had the last laugh by getting the Crimson Tide to the Final Four, while Tennessee fell one game short of that mark. The biggest problem for the Crimson Tide is that Tennessee knows how to play Alabama’s game and win, because it can adjust to whatever it plays against.
The Volunteers have shown that in their past eight games against Alabama. This is a team that averages 91.5 points per game. The Crimson Tide haven’t broken 75 against the Volunteers in any of their past eight matchups, even though they’ve won three of them. Don’t expect Alabama to be able to run here either.
Arizona at Iowa State
The Cyclones need to make a statement here. Losing at Houston was one thing. The Cougars have dominated the Big 12 all year, and a loss there, especially by single digits, was totally forgivable.
Losing to Oklahoma State? Not so much. And now Iowa State has to hold on desperately to its double bye, as BYU is blazing and now tied with the Cyclones for fourth. More importantly, the Cyclones are quickly drifting to the wrong part of the seeding for the NCAA tournament: they’re now sitting on either the No. 5 or No. 6 line. Iowa State has had problems with No. 11 seeds in years past, and that could bite the Cyclones again if they don’t start to win here.
Arizona is also looking to build some momentum. The Wildcats are firmly in double-bye territory, but they’d love to get their seed higher and stay in the Pacific Time Zone for the first four rounds of the NCAA tournament. Winning in Ames would help that cause significantly.
