NCAA Women’s Basketball: Breaking Down Championship Week
by Dan Angell
The biggest names made their final cases in their conference tournaments, and there’s now nothing to do but sit and wait until Selection Monday arrives. With the Big East wrapping up on Monday, every power conference is now in the clubhouse, which leaves some teams pleased with their work and some wishing they had done more. While the top sportsbooks have already updated their futures ahead of Monday's big announcement, let's take stock of who's hot and who's cold.
Who Should the Four No. 1 Seeds Be?
UCLA certainly made things more complicated by finally getting the better of USC in the Big Ten championship game. There’s no way to leave either the Bruins or the Trojans off the No. 1 line now, and South Carolina is clearly a No. 1 seed after earning the SEC title. That leaves the fourth, and the question is between Texas and Connecticut.
Both teams went 31-3, and both lost to Notre Dame. The Irish should have been the final No. 1 seed, but with three losses in their past four against ranked opponents, Notre Dame is clearly not the same team it was. Texas beat Tennessee by four and Connecticut lost to the Vols by that margin, but the Longhorns carry two losses to South Carolina, whom the Huskies blasted by 29. Connecticut has probably done a smidge more to deserve the No. 1 seed, but it’s probably not going to matter. The committee will likely put them both in the same region and let them settle it in the regional final, so the only difference will be who’s wearing darker uniforms that day.
Who Helped Its Cause Most?
Michigan had some real questions about its resume as a team that kept getting close and falling short. The Wolverines came close against South Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Maryland, UCLA. But they couldn’t put any into the win column but Michigan State, and their win at Minnesota quickly lost its luster as the Golden Gophers fell apart.
But they won their regular season finale at Illinois, and they destroyed Maryland in the Big Ten tournament. The Wolverines even gave USC a scare for three quarters in the semifinals before succumbing. Michigan is not someone anyone will want to see in its subregional.
Duke also had a huge week in winning the ACC title. The Blue Devils had been overshadowed by Notre Dame and NC State, but they beat both of them to claim the league championship and likely set themselves on the No. 3 line. Duke has a real chance to make a long run if it draws the right region, and Kara Lawson is clearly getting the most out of her team. One guess is that Duke won’t be sent to the same region as Texas: a game between the Longhorns and the Blue Devils might be a situation where the first team to 30 wins.
Who Hurt Its Cause?
Minnesota’s collapse is complete. The Gophers started 16-1, but they won just four times over the their final 14 games, and the only decent win was Indiana. Against Washington in the Big Ten tournament, they never got in the game and ended their season rather meekly.
Stanford and Virginia Tech also likely ended their seasons on the wrong end of the cut line. For the Cardinal, it’s a catastrophe: Stanford hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament since 1987. Realistically, the Cardinal needed to win at least twice in the ACC tournament to have a chance; instead, they lost convincingly to 14 seed Clemson. Virginia Tech might still have a shot, but after losing to Georgia Tech, the Hokies would need the committee to give them a lot of grace. That usually doesn’t come after home losses to teams like 12-18 Syracuse.
Which Small Schools Should Scare the Favorites?
Richmond is going to scare somebody. The Spiders are one of the most accurate 3-point shooting teams in the nation, and if they get hot against the right opponent, it’s going to be difficult to keep up with their scoring. Richmond also comes in motivated, as the Spiders lost in the Atlantic 10 tournament. That opened the door for George Mason to make the A-10 a two-bid league, and both are good enough to cause problems.
Montana State could also be a tough matchup for someone that doesn’t take care of the basketball. The Bobcats lead the nation in steals, and against a more careless team such as Oklahoma or Maryland, Montana State could cash in early and often.
Finally, Florida Gulf Coast has done nothing but win for months. The Eagles are 28-1 in their past 29 games, and they’ve dominated the Atlantic Sun Conference for years. What really makes FGCU interesting is that the Eagles lost their coach after two games when Karl Smesko departed for the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream. The Eagles’ style has long been to either get to the rim or get a 3-pointer, and it’s made them the class of their league. That’s continued under Chelsea Lyles, and it makes FGCU dangerous if it wins the A-Sun final.
Who Needs to Refocus?
Notre Dame isn’t itself and needs to get some time away to get refocused. After losing to Duke, it’s clear that the Fighting Irish are not the same team that was dominating the ACC and need to figure this out if they intend to make any kind of run. Notre Dame will play two games at home, which might make a difference in getting their heads right.
Kansas State also needs to get back on track. The Wildcats lost Ayoka Lee in January, and they’re supposed to have her return for the NCAA tournament. If she does, K-State has real potential to make a run. If she doesn’t, the Wildcats might not make it through the first weekend.
