Warriors Title Odds Shorten Dramatically Following Long-Awaited Jimmy Butler Trade
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The Jimmy Butler saga is finally over. Instead of ending up in Phoenix as he desired, Butler was traded to the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday in a multi-team deal which saw the Miami Heat acquire Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, P.J. Tucker, and Golden State’s 2025 first-round pick (top-10 protected in 2025 and 2026, then unprotected in 2027).
The Detroit Pistons took Lindy Waters III and Josh Richardson. The Utah Jazz picked up Dennis Schröder, who immediately becomes a buyout candidate.
Drastic Odds Movement
BetMGM had the Warriors at +8000 for the title prior to this trade. Golden State is as short as +3500 with Caesars following the move, while sitting +4500 at FanDuel. DraftKings prices the Dubs at +160 to make the playoffs, despite placing 11th in the Western Conference at 25-25.
Golden State is still out at +1900 to win the Pacific Division.
Butler, a proven postseason performer, is going to change how the Warriors are viewed when making NBA predictions. Wiggins is an important piece to lose, however, with his defense and secondary scoring playing an integral role in their 2022 title run.
Spacing Concerns
Butler – and his $121 million extension – was a fallback option after Kevin Durant made it clear he did not want to return to The Bay Area. Golden State has achieved its goal of adding another star next to Steph Curry and Draymond Green, but it’s far from the smoothest fit.
The Dubs gave up Wiggins, their second-best 3-point shooter in the starting five. Butler made only 0.6 threes per game during his time with Miami, shooting 30.6% on three attempts per game.
The six-time All-Star increased his volume in each of the last three playoffs. His efficiency remained average at best. Steve Kerr was already struggling to get enough shooting around Curry, particularly when Buddy Hield is slumping. Lineups with Butler, Green, and Jonathan Kuminga risk being very clunky.
Offensive Boost Elsewhere
His shooting is – if we’re being generous – a question mark. Butler is a guaranteed improvement elsewhere, though.
The Warriors are 29th in free-throw rate this season. Only four teams take a lower share of their shots in the restricted area.
Butler’s .612 free-throw rate would rank second among qualified players. He was third in free-throw rate in 2023/24 and second in 2022/23.
Butler has taken 50% of his shots at the rim this season, per Cleaning The Glass. That’s a career-high and in the 94th percentile among forwards. He has been at 40% or higher since joining the Heat. It’s not just that he relentlessly attacks the cup, either, as Butler has shot 71% in the restricted area this season, which is better than Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, Ivica Zubac, and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Over his first five seasons with the Heat, Butler averaged 5.7 assists per game. His assist to usage rate and turnover rate have been elite since 2014/15.
A smart mover off-ball, Butler should be able to slot into the motion offense run by Kerr. He can make teams pay when they throw extra bodies at Curry.
Overall Impact
Into his age-35 season, Butler is still a very good defender, yet he shouldn’t be the primary matchup on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, or Kyrie Irving in a playoff series.
Losing Wiggins’ length and athleticism leaves the Dubs with a hole to fill on defense. They are 20th in defensive rating since the start of December. Perhaps the combination of Green and Butler can cover for Kuminga and Curry’s weaknesses on that end, but it’s a big ask for two players in the latter stages of their careers.
Adding another shot creator should help an offense which ranks 24th over the last two months. Butler needs to up his 3-point volume, and another shooter on the wing would be invaluable if Brandin Podziemski’s sophomore slump continues.
Bettors can talk themselves into the upside to make the +4500 price to win the title appealing. After all, the Dubs are only three games behind the sixth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in the loss column.
We like the look of +200 on any play-in tournament to reach the Conference Finals at DraftKings – Golden State could have a favorable path if they avoid the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers in the first two rounds.
