How to Handicap The Second Half of the MLB Season
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Welcome to the second half of the 2024 MLB season, there's still a lot of baseball to be played, here are our strategies for finishing in
Truthfully, most teams hit their official halfway mark at the start of July, but baseball fans have always seen the All-Star Game as the halfway point, even if teams have usually played 90 to 95 games by then.
Check Out the Remaining Schedule
It’s good to be the Seattle Mariners right now. Seattle’s holding a slight lead on the Houston Astros in the AL West, but the schedule sets up beautifully for the Mariners to hang on and clinch the division title. That’s because Seattle still has to play the White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Tigers and Rangers for at least one and usually two series before the year is over. All of those are lesser teams who aren’t showing any signs of challenging for the postseason, which means prime opportunity for the Mariners to pad their record.
It might be a good idea to fade the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second half.
On the other hand, it might be a good idea to fade the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second half. The Pirates face the fourth-hardest schedule in the majors over the rest of the season, as they’ll see the Yankees, Guardians and Mariners from the American League as well as the Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers. That’s not a recipe for wins, especially when you’ve got a younger team like the Pirates have.
Above all, check out why a team is where they are at this point in the schedule. If a team played a bunch of bad teams early in the year, they could be primed for a drop. If they played a tough early schedule, they might get hot, allowing you to make a futures play on them at better odds.
Atlanta offers an interesting case in analyzing its record. The Braves sit second in the NL East, but they’re not a team worth riding in the second half. That’s because most of their wins came off of American League opposition. Against Senior Circuit opponents, Atlanta has a losing record. Most of their schedule the rest of the way comes against NL opponents, and if their struggles continue, they’ll come nowhere close to challenging for another division title. Knowing these tendencies and how the schedule will affect them makes a big difference in your strategy.
Understand the Front Office
More than any other sport, teams’ mindsets change based on how their front office is analyzing the situation. The NFL and NBA regularly get calls from their fan bases to tank for a draft pick in a lost season, but these cries are usually just wishful thinking. Those teams don’t have enough players to change course at mid-season, and players aren’t going to stop trying for a draft pick.
If a team is flush with prospects, it can become an opponent nobody wants to play during the last month of the season.
Baseball doesn’t have that problem because of the presence of the minor leagues. Once a team is out of the running for the postseason, it has every incentive to bring up its younger players and see how they can handle the major leagues. If a team is flush with prospects, it can become an opponent nobody wants to play during the last month of the season.
The Chicago Cubs are a great example of this. The Cubs’ farm system ranks second in the majors, and they’re probably not going to catch Milwaukee for the NL Central title. They’ll be fairly liberal in bringing up players from Triple-A and Double-A, which could make them a big threat down the stretch to playoff contenders. As a bettor, that can mean plus money plays for you.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Los Angeles Angels. Their farm system is the worst in baseball, and they don’t have many assets they can trade to get better. Things are going to get worse in Anaheim as the year goes on, because what you see is what you get with this team. What fans have seen from them has been ugly, and they’ll likely be on the wrong end of several spread losses.
Pay Attention to Pitching
Knowing a team’s pitching strengths and weaknesses determines much of your success when betting them or fading them. That’s because a good pitcher can freeze an opponent’s bats and give their offense a chance, pulling out what appears to be a surprise win.
For example, when Tarik Skubal gets the ball, you really don’t want to mess with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit holds a losing record on the season, but Skubal gives his team a chance to win every time he goes to the hill. In 2024, he’s already surpassed his career high for wins in a season, and he’s come into his own as a pitcher. If you see a low line on the Tigers that doesn’t seem right, check to see if Skubal is pitching.
a good pitcher can freeze an opponent’s bats and give their offense a chance
Knowing whether you can trust the bullpen or not also makes a big difference. When betting on Pittsburgh, it’s usually a good idea to bet the first five innings on the Pirates and get out before their bullpen has a chance to ruin the play. Pittsburgh’s bullpen can’t get out of bad situations, which has the Pirates in a bad spot in the standings.
Cleveland, on the other hand, leads the AL Central because of its rock-solid bullpen. The Guardians believe if they get six innings out of their starter, the game is basically over, and they’re not really wrong in that. Knowing how the bullpen functions can and should shape your strategy when deciding what kind of play to make.
Above all, use what you’ve learned this season. What these teams have shown usually carries over to the second half. Don’t be afraid to trust your gut and ride with teams and players you know.
