Copa America 2024: Discover Our Betting Tips on Mexico!
by Tyler Doty
This is the 10th time Mexico have competed in the Copa América. Runners-up in 1993 and 2001, they suffered group-stage eliminations in 2011 and 2015 before defeating Uruguay and Jamaica to progress from the group in 2016. Here are some of the most attractive bets for the team at this stage, check out our Copa América predictions featuring every match from the competition and some betting tips!
Top Group B
Mexico are +120 to win Group B at FanDuel. This price is the longest of any group-winner favorite, representing what should be a relatively competitive section. While Venezuela and Jamaica are given very long prices of winning Group B, Ecuador only narrowly trail Mexico in this market.
Since the turn of the century, Ecuador have only qualified from their group at three major tournaments. Two of those were the 2016 and 2021 Copa Américas, however, and they have a solid record over the last 12 months.
Mexico have won just four of their last 12 matches. We think topping the group is within their reach, but there might be better value elsewhere.
Straight Forecast
FanDuel are offering +330 for Ecuador to finish first and Mexico in second in Group B. Given the respective form of the two nations, that bet has to be worth serious consideration. Mexico might have the supposedly superior talent on paper, but Argentina and Italy are the only teams to beat Ecuador over their last 12 matches.
Mexico should take at least four points from Venezuela and Jamaica, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop points to Ecuador, leaving the door ajar for La Tri to top the group and potentially avoid Argentina in the quarters.
Team Top Scorer
Feyenoord striker Santiago Giménez is expected to lead the line for Mexico at this summer’s tournament. Giménez only has four goals for his country in 27 caps. His form at club level is exceptional, though, with 49 goals across the last two seasons.
Only two players in the Eredivisie scored more goals than Giménez. Ranking in the 99th percentile in non-penalty expected goals, he also netted three goals in six appearances across the Champions League and Europa League.
Without Hirving Lozano or Raúl Jiménez in their squad, Mexico are lacking proven international goal scorers. Uriel Antuna is the top scorer in their squad with 13 goals in 61 caps. While Giménez’s record at this level is poor, he’s rightly the favorite to top score for Mexico at this tournament at a price of +230.
Quarter-Final Exit
Mexico are +120 to be knocked out in the quarterfinals at FanDuel. While they should be able to get through a relatively easy group, we think there’s a good chance they have to settle for second, meaning a high chance of a last eight matchup with Argentina.
Even if they avoid the defending champions in the first knockout round, we could see this Mexico team getting beaten by Peru, Canada or Chile.
Mexico haven’t won a World Cup knockout match since 1986, and haven’t gone beyond the quarter-finals of a Copa América since 2007. While they continue to dominate the Gold Cup, the standards are much, much higher in this competition, and this is a relatively weak Mexico team.
