College Football Week 0 Betting Odds and Lines
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
College Football Week 0 Betting Odds and Lines
Officially, there’s still just under two weeks until the start of the college football season. But Week Zero games offer plenty of chances to bet before then, and if you’re paying attention, there’s value to be had. Week Zero can be the toughest week of the season for many bettors, because you’re flying blind on a lot of teams. In the era of the transfer portal, you can only guess at how teams might mesh with new freshmen and transfers coming in.
But here’s the thing: sportsbooks are also guessing. Unlike the regular season, when sportsbooks can build their numbers off of proven on-field data, the books have to go with their best guess in the first week of the year. That can lead to a few lines that don’t look right, especially if you’ve paid close attention to a team in the offseason.
It can also lead to good value in certain spots if you time the market. A few games looked like great value when they were first released, but the value on that team has fallen considerably because of others catching on to them. Sometimes, making a winning bet has more to do with knowing when the value is going the other way than knowing who the better side is.
Whether it’s a market correction, some lesser-known information or the public pushing the value too far, these games represent intriguing options in Week Zero. All of these games will be played on August 24.
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech
- Play: Florida State -11 (-110 at Caesars)
Don’t read into the fact that Georgia Tech is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games against Florida State. That’s a skewed statistic, given that the team have played just seven times in the past 20 years and three in the past decade. Florida State famously wasn’t very good during that stretch, while Georgia Tech was punching above its weight.
Now, both programs are back around where you’d expect, and Florida State looks far more advanced than Georgia Tech. The Seminoles ripped the Yellow Jackets by 25 when the teams met in 2022, and they look capable of another strong statement in the season opener in Ireland.
That’s why it’s mystifying that the line is moving away from Florida State. The most likely theory is that the public remembers the wrong lessons of 2023 and remembers seeing Florida State’s backups taken to the woodshed by Georgia in the Orange Bowl. But that game wasn’t the real Florida State. That was a shell of the Seminoles, played without a true quarterback or any kind of depth.
This game will feature a Florida State squad with something to prove, led by a quarterback anxious to prove he wasn’t an ACC washout. D.J. Uiagalelei makes his return to ACC football after a year at Oregon State, which resurrected his career nicely. The Jackets couldn’t handle Uiagalelei in 2022, taking a 41-10 loss to Clemson with him under center. Now that he’s in garnet and gold and two years more experienced, the assignment’s going to be even tougher for Tech. The value on the Seminoles just keeps getting better as the public pushes this the wrong way.
Montana State vs. New Mexico
- Play: New Mexico +9.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
This is the classic matchup where the sportsbooks have oversold the possibility of the “upset”. Make no mistake, Montana State is very good. The Bobcats are a genuine national title contender at the FCS level, and if all the pieces break their way, they could easily lift the trophy at the end of the year. New Mexico, by contrast, has a new coach and will be lucky to win more than four games this season.
But this line has more than doubled since it went on the books, and what was once a good idea for an upset has now evolved into value on the home underdog. Montana State has lost 11 in a row against FBS opponents. It last beat an FBS school in 2006, before any of its current players had entered elementary school.
New Mexico has heard all summer long about how it’s not good enough to beat an FCS side. That’s got to be motivating for the Lobos. They don’t need to win the game to cover; they just have to stay within one score. Once the line got above a touchdown, the value on the Bobcats disappeared.
Delaware State vs. Hawai’i
- Play: Hawai’i -38 (-110 at DraftKings)
The best time to bet this game was when it went on the board. The second-best time to bet it is now, because there’s still value on getting Hawai’i at this number. If you think this is too many points to give, you either didn’t see Hawai’i play last November or don’t realize just how poor Delaware State is.
The Hornets were one of the worst teams in FCS last year, going 1-10. They played two FBS teams in Army and Miami-Ohio last season, and they lost those games by a combined 119-20. They didn’t beat a Division I team last season and have lost 12 straight to Division I opponents.
In short, this is nowhere near last year’s situation, when Hawai’i met Albany and was fortunate to win. The Rainbow Warriors played poorly against the Great Danes, but that was a good FCS opponent. Albany ended up seventh in the nation in FCS and reached the FCS semifinals, and Hawai’i still won by 11 with a weak performance.
This Hawai’i team is much stronger, and Timmy Chang needs to make a statement to get the locals on his side and prove November was no fluke. The best way to do that is to pound the daylights out of an overmatched foe.
SMU vs. Nevada
- Play: Over 57 (-105 at Caesars)
SMU has been a good-hit, little field outfit under Sonny Dykes and Rhett Lashlee. Most times, the Mustangs were a good bet to score 30 to 40 points on their own, while allowing another 20 to 30 to the opponent.
Last year changed that. The Mustangs discovered a defense and morphed into one of the best teams in the Group of 5. Now they’re in the ACC, but they should be ready for the new level of competition. And the reason why is the offense, which returns quarterback Preston Stone and his top seven wide receivers.
The defense, however, is likely to take a step back from last season. The Mustangs allowed 17.8 points per game in 2023, down a full 16 points from the prior year. That’s likely not sustainable. And Nevada does have some offensive talent back, even though the Wolf Pack are one of the worst teams in the Mountain West.
Expect a fast start from SMU and for Nevada to have to try to pass its way back into the game. That should send this game into the 60s.
