Champions League: Taking Stock Ahead of Matchday 6
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Liverpool, a Perfect Record
The Reds are enjoying an exceptional season. While many expected the team to be without Jurgen Klopp, it's clear that his replacement, Dutchman Arne Slot, is doing a superb job.
The Mersey club not only leads the Premier League by a wide margin but is also first in the Champion's League championship phase, being the only team to have won its first 5 matches.
Liverpool have won all 5 of their games, conceded just 1 goal and scored 12 in C1 this season.
Rather underdogs according to the odds offered by sportsbooks and our Champions League prediction at the start of the season, Liverpool are now the big favorites, and for good reason: they have already beaten many potential rivals such as AC Milan (1-3), Bayer Leverkusen (4-0) and above all Real Madrid (2-0)!
With a relatively favorable end to their campaign, the Anfield residents can obviously hope to finish top of this first phase, with 8 wins out of 8? Girona, Lille and PSV will be looking to prevent that from happening!
Monaco, Brest, and Lille: The Ligue 1 Surprises
While France has gotten used to disappointing or even humiliating European campaigns from its clubs, this season seems to be different. AS Monaco, Stade Brestois, and LOSC are each having fantastic runs, all very close to qualifying at least for the knockout round.
The Spectacular Monaco
Monaco, currently 8th and directly qualified for the round of 16, had a perfect start by beating FC Barcelona (2-1). After earning a point in Zagreb against Dinamo (2-2), they crushed Red Star (5-1), and defeated Bologna (1-2). However, they were unlucky with the refereeing in their match against Benfica (losing 2-3).
While Monaco is expected to qualify for the knockout round, they may struggle to hold onto their current position, as a tough schedule awaits: away matches at Arsenal and Milan, and a home game against Aston Villa. One thing is certain: we’re likely to see some exciting matches ahead!
Brest's Unbelievable Season
The biggest surprise so far is certainly Brest. Currently 11th in the Champions League, the club is participating in European competition for the first time in its history. The campaign started perfectly with an unbeaten run in the first four matches: victories over Sturm Graz (2-1) and RB Salzburg (0-4), a draw against Bayer Leverkusen (1-1), and a win at Sparta Prague (1-2).
Brest, almost guaranteed to make the knockout rounds, has already succeeded in its European campaign.
They were eventually defeated by FC Barcelona (3-0), where the task proved too difficult. With upcoming matches against PSV Eindhoven, Shakhtar Donetsk, and Real Madrid featuring Kylian Mbappé, Stade Brestois can dream bigger but should already be happy with likely qualification to the knockout rounds.
Lille and Genesio: A Winning Duo?
What about LOSC’s current campaign? Lille has been a pleasant surprise for its supporters, especially since the club has been competing in Europe for several months. After eliminating José Mourinho’s Fenerbahçe and Slavia Prague in the playoffs, Lille fans couldn’t believe their eyes when they saw the group draw.
Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid, Juventus, and Liverpool! The result? No defeats so far (before the trip to Anfield). It all started badly with a loss in Lisbon to Sporting (2-0), but LOSC pulled off near-perfect matches against Real Madrid (1-0) and Atlético Madrid (1-3). Although the Juventus match ended in a draw (1-1), Lille secured another three points in Bologna two weeks ago (1-2).
Unlike Monaco, Lille has a more favorable schedule on paper, and they can dream of reaching the round of 16! With a home match against Sturm Graz, an exciting trip to Liverpool, and Feyenoord at home, Jonathan David and his teammates have a golden opportunity to make history.
Dortmund, Atalanta, Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and Sporting: Solid Performances
Now, let’s look at teams that are performing well so far. Some were expected, others less so!
A Nearly Perfect BVB
We start with Borussia Dortmund, who, aside from a heavy defeat at the Bernabeu (5-2), has been performing well so far (4th with 12 points). With a relatively "easy" schedule on paper, Dortmund has held its own. The Ruhr club first defeated Bruges (0-3), then Celtic Glasgow (7-1), before losing to Real Madrid, and then rebounding with victories against Sturm Graz (1-0) and Dinamo Zagreb (0-3).
With an easy end to this stage of the competition, Dortmund could well finish in the top 8, where they weren’t necessarily expected. First, they need to be solid in their upcoming match against Barcelona at home, before traveling to Bologna and hosting Shakhtar Donetsk to finish. Dortmund can definitely believe in it!
Europa League Winner Atalanta on Fire
For their part, Atalanta are currently just behind BVB, 1 point behind. Used to European competition for many seasons now, La Dea are sure to be a force to be reckoned with in the Champions League 2024-2025 edition.
The Italian club simply hasn't lost a single game, having held off Arsenal in the first match (0-0). Behind the scenes, the club has been impressive: 0-3 against Shakhtar Donetsk, 0-0 against Celtic and victories 0-2 and 1-6 over Stuttgart and Young Boys. With Real Madrid at home on Tuesday evening, Sturm Graz and Barcelona on the road, Atalanta can look forward to a top 8 finish!
Leverkusen Still in the Mix
As we all know, the confirmation season is always a difficult one. Bayer Leverkusen, who enjoyed a sensational and historic season last year, are no exception to this - almost - truth. A little less solid and miraculous than last year, they are nonetheless having a very interesting season, having just knocked out Bayern Munich in the German Cup.
Leverkusen will be in the top 8 if they do well against direct rivals Inter and Atlético.
In the Champions League, Bayer's record is good: 10 points, thanks in particular to victories over Feyenoord (0-4), AC Milan (1-0) and RB Salzburg (5-0). In between, Bayer took 1 point against Brest (1-1) before suffering a heavy defeat at Anfield (4-0). With Inter, Atlético Madrid and Sparta Prague all in their sights, the future standing of Florian Wirtz and his teammates looks very uncertain, as the Champions League odds below confirm.
Aston Villa, Aiming for Top 8
The Villains are back in the limelight! After many years in England's second tier, or at the bottom of the Premier League table, Aston Villa have come back to life in recent seasons. Under the guidance of Unai Emery, the Birmingham club have made a good start to the Champions League season, finishing 9th and level on points with the 3 clubs above them.
Having beaten the Youngs Boys (0-3), Bayern (1-0) and Bologna (2-0), lost at Brugge (1-0) and then shared the points with Juventus (0-0), Aston Villa have high hopes for their final 3 games. With a trip to Leipzig tomorrow evening, Monaco and then Celtic Glasgow, Lucas Digne's team-mates have every chance of finishing in the top 8.
Sporting Also in the Mix
We finish with the Portuguese champions, who have just lost their coach Ruben Amorim (who has left for Manchester United). Things had started well for the Portuguese club, who hadn't lost in their first 4 games (2-0 win over Lille, 1-1 against PSV, then 0-2 and 4-1 wins at Sturm Graz and against Manchester City).
But the last match, without Amorim, was a real failure, with a heavy 1-5 defeat against Arsenal. Sporting have the ability to respond, and will first travel to Brugge on Tuesday evening before another trip to Leipzig, followed by a visit to Bologna. With 10 points already on the board, Viktor Gyökeres and his teammates could strike a blow if they manage to complete a fine run to finish...
Bayern and Manchester City Underperforming
Let's move on to two much-anticipated clubs whose results nevertheless disappointed. Although they are not out of the running for the top 8, we still expected better from these two title favorites.
The Bavarians are used to better results
If there was one thing Bayern never missed in the Champions League, it was the group stage. For many years, the club remained unbeaten in this first part of the competition, which is no longer the case today. While the format is different and Bayern are in transition, that doesn't excuse everything.
Currently 13th with 9 points, Vincent Kompany's men have already lost 2 of their last 5 games (1-0 at Aston Villa and 4-1 at Barcelona on Matchdays 2 and 3). And yet everything had started perfectly, with a 9-2 win over Dinamo Zagreb in the opening match. Following the two defeats, Bayern secured the main prize by defeating Benfica and PSG, both by 1-0 scores.
Harry Kane and his team-mates also have a very favorable end-of-season fixture list (Shakhtar Donetsk, Feyenoord and then Slovan Bratislava), and shouldn't have too much trouble finishing among the top 8 teams in this league phase. However, the odds on this bet are still worth a try.
Manchester City decimated and in crisis
As for Manchester City, the club is slowly emerging from a crisis of 7 games without a win, including 6 defeats during the period. An unprecedented period for the club under Guardiola. During this difficult period, the Sky Blues lost heavily in Lisbon to Sporting (4-1) before drawing at home to Feyenoord (3-3), despite leading 3-0 at the 73rd minute...
Prior to that, Man City had started with a goalless draw against Inter Milan at the Etihad, before going on to crush Slovan Bratislava (0-4) and Sparta Prague (5-0). With a far from straightforward fixture list ahead (away matches against Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain, followed by a visit to Club Brugge), Guardiola has every reason to worry!
A Catastrophic Record for Real Madrid and PSG
Finally, we look at two clubs who had high expectations but have completely failed in their first five matches.
Real Madrid on the brink of crisis?
What if having a team of Galacticos isn't working out for Real Madrid after all? While their record in the 2000s was not excellent, Real have won their last two Champions Leagues without having the best squad in the world. This year, with the recruitment of Kylian Mbappé, expectations were enormous.
And what a huge disappointment it has been so far. The game is generally non-existent and relies on personal exploits, there seems to be a growing gap between the attack and the rest of the team, some players are not playing in their positions, and there are a number of injuries: to sum up, Real's start to the season has been a failure.
The proof is in the figures: the Merengue club had never lost 3 games in the group phase in its history. Now they have, with defeats against Lille (1-0), AC Milan (1-3) and Liverpool (2-0). Although Real got off to a good start (3-1 against Stuttgart) and then reacted well between LOSC and AC (5-2 against Dortmund), the team's problems were already apparent, particularly in the first half against BVB.
With a tricky away match against Atalanta on Tuesday evening, followed by two games that look more manageable on paper (Salzburg and a trip to Guingamp to face Brest), Real could well have to make do with a play-off place. A failure for the club with 15 Champions League titles!
PSG pay for poor recruitment
How would you sum up Paris' start to the season? Dominant in the League, inoffensive in the Champions League? The club from the capital is currently 25th, just behind Real, and would therefore be eliminated if the league phase ended now.
Things had started well in the first match, with a 1-0 victory over Girona despite a lack of finishing. But what followed was very different... After losing to Arsenal (2-0), Paris Saint-Germain failed to beat PSV at home (1-1), and lost their next two games (1-2 to Atlético and then 1-0 to Bayern).
Without a finisher, PSG are unable to capitalize on their chances, and are paying for it in the accounts.
With 3 defeats in 5 games, Paris is in a tricky position. But our experts believe that Luis Enrique and his men have what it takes to qualify for the playoffs, with a less difficult schedule to finish on. First of all, a trip to Salzburg awaits the Parisians tomorrow evening, against whom they must take all 3 points.
Next up is a much tougher game against Manchester City at the Parc des Princes on January 22, 2025. Finally, Paris travels to Stuttgart. By taking at least 6 points, PSG should qualify for the playoffs. These matches, like all the others in the competition, can be followed live on our Champions League Livescore!
RB Leipzig in the doldrums
Not necessarily expected to come up against a favorite or an outsider, Rasenballsport Leipzig had nonetheless accustomed us to much better results in the Champions League. Often eighth runners-up or even a little better at times, the German club is most likely already out of the competition.
Currently in 34th place (out of 36), Lois Openda and his teammates have quite simply had a catastrophic record: 5 defeats in as many games, with 10 goals conceded already. They find themselves 6 points behind Real, the last team to qualify for the playoffs, and 10 behind Monaco, who occupy the last place for the last 16 and are therefore already out of reach.
After defeats by Atlético (2-1), Juventus (2-3), Liverpool (0-1), Celtic Glasgow (3-1) and Inter Milan (1-0), Leipzig also face a tough schedule in their next few games, with Aston Villa and Sporting next on the agenda. Will a trip to Sturm Graz on the final day be the only hope of picking up points and avoiding humiliation?
