2025 BNP Paribas Open Bets to Avoid This Year
by Tyler Doty
BNP Paribas Open the players' and bettors' favorite tournament?
For many tennis players and fans alike, the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells is the most awaited and beloved event of the season. In the California desert, the world’s best players will gather with one goal in mind: to etch their name onto the tournament's trophy and succeed the reigning two-time champion, Spain's Carlos Alcaraz. To make the BNP Paribas Open your favorite event too, here’s a list of bets we strongly recommend avoiding when making your predictions for the BNP Paribas Open!
Novak Djokovic in Indian Wells, 8 years without success
Arguably the greatest player of all time (much to the chagrin of Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal fans), Novak Djokovic has often performed well in California, with five career titles. But since 2016, his last victory in the United States, the Serbian has struggled with withdrawals due to injury and early exits, like last year when he was eliminated in the second round by Italy's Luca Nardi. With just one match under his belt since his withdrawal from the Australian Open, the all-time Grand Slam record holder will not enter in the best form, and given his recent results, it’s hard to be optimistic about Novak Djokovic's chances.
A rare final between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds
Seeing the top two players in the world face off in the final has become a rarity in recent years at Indian Wells. The last time the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds played for the title was back in 2015 in a fantastic final between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which the Serb won. Since then, surprises have been frequent in California, and for your bets, we strongly advise you to avoid betting on a dream final!
BNP Paribas Open: one-sided finals in recent editions
For the past three years, the finals of the BNP Paribas Open haven't gone down in the tournament's history as close battles! Indeed, Carlos Alcaraz won twice in straight sets against Daniil Medvedev in 2023 and 2024, and Taylor Fritz defeated Rafael Nadal in straight sets in 2022. These players didn’t give their opponents any chance in recent years. Will we see the same scenario in 2025?
Matches without suspense in California?
When we look at the last two editions, it’s hard to say that the BNP Paribas Open has been the tournament with the most fiercely contested matches. In 2024, only 29.4% of matches went to a third set, while in 2023, just over 25% of matches required a decisive set to determine a winner. These statistics are worth considering before you make predictions on the number of sets or total games played.
Daniil Medvedev, not a strong candidate for another final in Indian Wells?
A two-time finalist in California in 2023 and 2024, Daniil Medvedev has shown that he’s very comfortable in California conditions! So, betting on the Russian to have a good run at Indian Wells might seem plausible. However, the world No. 6 will not approach this first Masters 1000 of the season under the same conditions as previous years. A new father earlier this year, Medvedev couldn’t follow his usual physical preparation and is currently paying the price in his performances. Less effective and without any standout results, the Russian may not have much impact in this 2025 edition, so betting on Daniil Medvedev is not a top priority!
Few tie-breaks on Californian soil!
On faster surfaces, big servers often have an advantage due to the power of their serve. But at Indian Wells, the statistics suggest otherwise! In 2023, out of 214 sets played across the 95 matches, only 34 tie-breaks (14.2%) were contested. In 2024, there were 31 tie-breaks during the entire tournament (15.8%). A fast surface, yes, but not necessarily one where tie-breaks are frequent at this Masters 1000!
Carlos Alcaraz, unbeatable at this Masters 1000?
The two-time defending champion at Indian Wells, Carlos Alcaraz feels right at home there. Since his debut in 2022, the Spanish tennis star has consistently delivered his best tennis in California. With 17 matches played and 16 wins (his only loss was to Rafael Nadal in the 2022 semifinals), Alcaraz has dropped only four sets in three editions, with 82.3% of his matches being decided in straight sets.
An impressive record for the winner of the 2023 and 2024 editions, which should be considered when you see Carlos Alcaraz step onto the court! Betting on three-set matches or an Alcaraz loss should be avoided, especially in the absence of Jannik Sinner (who will be out for a few weeks), Novak Djokovic returning from injury, and Daniil Medvedev still struggling with his form!
