Big 12 Football Odds: Easy Road for K-State?
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
Best Futures Bets in the Big 12
This league might be the most wide-open of the four power conferences (although the ACC might also be just as open after Florida State’s Week 0 stunner against Georgia Tech), which means there’s lots of value if you can find the right team to back.
Here’s a look at a few top plays that offer season-long value.
Colorado Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (+110 at BetMGM)
The Deion Sanders hype train is the gift that keeps on giving to contrarian sports bettors willing to go against the grain. Last year, Colorado was a decent bet in the early part of the season, as nobody knew what to expect from the Buffaloes. But when the Buffs started getting favored at the sportsbooks, fading them became the play. Colorado went 1-3 ATS as a favorite, and it would have been 0-4 if Nebraska could have gotten out of its own way.
Sanders seems to genuinely believe he can win with his sons
The Big 12 represents a stiff test for Colorado, which still hasn’t improved much in the trenches. Sanders seems to genuinely believe he can win with his sons, Travis Hunter and little else, which didn’t work last year and probably isn’t going to work this year. But he’s such a huge name that he’s going to attract a lot of attention, and people want to be part of his ride in Boulder.
That makes fading his team the high-value play. CU faces a tough slate, as it has three loseable non-conference games before entering the Big 12. The Buffs get Kansas State and Arizona back-to-back, and they’ll finish with Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State. If Colorado stumbles at all in the non-conference, it’s going to be very difficult for the Buffaloes to get the requisite six wins to cash the over.
Sanders, for all his hype, hasn’t shown himself to be a very good in-game coach
And Sanders, for all his hype, hasn’t shown himself to be a very good in-game coach. At Jackson State, he went 0-2 in the Celebration Bowl, when he was finally up against a team that his stars couldn’t out-athlete. At Colorado, he has shown no idea how to guide his team through tight games. He got the Buffaloes to play with Utah, Arizona and Oregon State, but they lost all of them and threw away a 29-0 lead to Stanford. There’s a reason this team went 1-8 in the Pac-12 last year, and that problem has not been fixed.
Kansas State to Win the Big 12 (+400 at FanDuel)
In the superconference era without divisions, where the schedule fairy gives you means more than who has the best team. In the case of Kansas State, the Wildcats might have the best team and the most favorable schedule. None of their five road games in the league are terribly frightening. The worst is a visit to Iowa State, and K-State won the last time it went to Ames (the visitor has actually won three straight in that rivalry).
The consensus four best teams in the Big 12 are Utah, Arizona, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Utah isn’t on K-State’s schedule at all, and Arizona and Oklahoma State both come to Manhattan. Even better for the Wildcats, the matchup with Arizona doesn’t count in the Big 12 standings. Before the Pac-12’s implosion, Kansas State and Arizona had already agreed to a two-year nonconference series, and rather than blow up both teams’ schedules, the Big 12 decided to leave that game in place and let it remain a nonconference game.
That gives the Wildcats a chance to test themselves against one of their top competitors in a lower-stress situation, a luxury that Utah does not have. The Utes might be slightly stronger than the Wildcats, but they face Oklahoma State and Arizona on a back-to-back, and their nonconference Big 12 opponent is Baylor, nowhere near as strong as Arizona.
the Wildcats should make the title game and face someone other than Utah
With K-State returning a lot of pieces and facing a much more manageable slate than the Utes, the Wildcats should make the title game and face someone other than Utah. If that happens, K-State would be favored to win it.
Oklahoma State to Make the Big 12 Title Game (+250 at DraftKings)
Oklahoma State is either going to blow this up or cash this in the first three weeks of the Big 12 season. The opening stretch is brutal, as the Pokes will face Utah to open league play and then head to Manhattan. But if they survive that two-game stretch, West Virginia is the only other team they’ll face who’s projected to finish in the top half of the Big 12. None of Iowa State, Kansas, UCF or Arizona made it onto the Cowboys’ schedule, and this is one of the most experienced offenses Mike Gundy has had in Stillwater.
The big worry for Oklahoma State is whether Gundy can keep everyone happy. The coach’s comments about NIL money and needing his players to keep their focus on the field didn’t exactly inspire confidence in Oklahoma State getting the job done. But with 10 starters back on offense, including quarterback Alan Bowman and running back Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State has no shortage of talent and weapons.
As long as the Cowboys don’t implode over off-field issues, they have one of the clearest paths to the league title game.
College Football with DraftKings
BYU Fewest Conference Wins (+400 at BetMGM)
The scheduling fairy was kind to Kansas State and Oklahoma State. It was brutal to BYU, which drew seven of the projected top eight teams in the Big 12. Only Iowa State didn’t find its way onto the Cougars’ schedule, which could make this another tough year in Provo.
BYU went 2-7 in its first year in the Big 12, including five straight losses to finish the season. The Cougars still have not won a road game in the league, but they might have to do it this year to avoid a winless season.
BYU’s going to be hard-pressed to match last year’s total, which could leave it in the basement.
The home schedule features Kansas State, Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas before the season finale with Houston. The road slate isn’t much better; Baylor is the only opponent who won’t definitely be favored over BYU.
The offense wasn’t good at anything last season, as BYU averaged just 23.1 points per game and 310 yards of offense. The receivers are better and the ground game more experienced, but the gap was already pretty wide between the Cougars and their new league. BYU’s going to be hard-pressed to match last year’s total, which could leave it in the basement.
Cincinnati Over 5.5 Wins (+100 at Caesars)
This will take a little work, but it’s doable. The Bearcats have three winnable non-conference games, with Pitt and Towson coming to them and their annual rivalry game at Miami of Ohio. If they can go 3-0, they just need to go 3-6 against the soft underbelly of the Big 12.
Out of the projected top eight, only three — UCF, Kansas State and Iowa State — are on Cincinnati’s schedule. Even better, all three are road games, meaning that the Bearcats should have a real chance to win every home game they play. Houston, TCU, West Virginia and Arizona State are all beatable, and wins at either Colorado or Texas Tech aren’t out of the question.
The Bearcats have all five starters back on the offensive line, and running the ball was not the problem last season. If they can get competent play from the quarterback, they will have a chance to win most of their games. With six wins all that’s necessary to cash this bet, even money on the over represents solid value.
