Acapulco, Dubai, and Santiago: Overview of this weeks's ATP tournaments
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
ATP 500 Dubai
A new edition of the ATP 500 tournament in Dubai opens its doors this week to determine who will succeed last year's winner, Frenchman Ugo Humbert.
Ugo Humbert is back this season to defend his title, which he won against Alexander Bublik. Humbert has had a great start to the season, managing to defend his title at the Marseille tournament by winning the final against Hamad Medjedovic. A second consecutive success in front of his home crowd, which will likely be difficult to replicate in the Dubai tournament. Indeed, he has struggled a bit, as he is currently recovering from an injury that forced him to rest and miss the Doha tournament last week.
Indeed, another name should stand out this season, with Russian Daniil Medvedev competing. As the top seed in this tournament, he knows the place well, having reached the semifinals here last year, but more importantly, winning the title in 2023 against Andrey Rublev. Stopped in the second round at the Australian Open, the Russian also failed to make it past the Round of 16 in Rotterdam, concluding an insufficient start to the season. However, he seems to have regained his focus in Marseille, where he was a semifinalist against Hamad Medjedovic, and especially at the Doha tournament last week. There, he stopped Karen Khachanov and Zizou Bergs before unfortunately withdrawing during his quarterfinal match against Felix Auger-Aliassime due to food poisoning. This abrupt halt due to his health issues should have given the Russian player significant motivation to enter the tournament with a combative mindset, aiming to secure his first title of the 2025 season.
The third seed, Andrey Rublev, could also have been a formidable opponent in the race for the title, as he won his final here in 2022. However, he has just won the title at the Doha tournament against Jack Draper. It was an exceptional run for the Russian, but he exerted a lot of energy in his duels against Alex De Minaur and Felix Auger-Aliassime and should not arrive fresh enough to replicate such a run in this tournament.
Our ATP Dubai prediction: Daniil Medvedev to win, at odds of +500!
ATP 500 Acapulco
The 32nd edition of the Acapulco tournament starts this week, and one thing is certain: the name of the winner will not be the same as the previous two years. Indeed, Australian Alex De Minaur, who won in 2023 and 2024, is not present this year to defend his title.
On the American side, Tommy Paul will be present and will face Canadian Gabrial Diallo, in the first round. Favored among the Americans present in this ATP 500, Paul will be looking to kickstart his 2025 season after a surprising loss against Denis Shapovalov in the Dallas semi-final. Ben Shelton will also be in the tournament, but after a surprising round-of-16 loss in the Dallas Open to Spain's Munar, fans will be questioning his post-Australian Open form. Finally, Frances Tiafoe and Brandon Nakashima are both present in this southwestern Mexico delight.
The player to watch in this hard-court tournament is Canadian Denis Shapovalov. Indeed, finishing his 2024 season by winning the title at the Belgrade tournament, the 25-year-old, who had been in the top 20 for four seasons not long ago, seems determined to climb the rankings quickly. The 32nd-ranked player made an impression at the Dallas tournament two weeks ago by winning five consecutive matches against some of the top players in tennis today, such as Taylor Fritz, Tomas Machac, Tommy Paul, and Casper Ruud, against whom he won the title in the final in two sets. An exceptional title that should have given him all the confidence needed to achieve a similar feat in this Mexican tournament.
Our ATP Acapulco prediction: Denis Shapovalov to win, at odds of +1200!
ATP 250 Santiago
Argentinian Sebastian Baez won the 14th edition of this Chilean tournament last year, defeating local Alejandro Tabilo. This year, we will see the two former finalists return. Sebastian Baez will be the third seed and will attempt to defend his title. However, Baez just had a great run at the Rio de Janeiro tournament, reaching the final, and likely won’t have the energy to repeat a similar run here. Alejandro Tabilo, on the other hand, has been struggling with losses this year and has yet to experience victory in 2025.
It’s rather the name of Argentinian Francisco Cerundolo that should stay in our minds. Engaged in the first clay-court tournament of his season in Buenos Aires, he was very impressive, winning four consecutive matches. He notably eliminated the tournament favorite and world number 2, Alexander Zverev, in a three-set match in the quarterfinals before stopping Spaniard Pedro Martinez in the semifinals. He could very well face Martinez again in the semifinals of this tournament and should dominate him without difficulty. As a finalist against Joao Fonseca, Cerundolo lost without winning a set and will likely try again to finish the tournament with the title. A quarterfinalist at the Rio de Janeiro tournament last week, it is certain that Cerundolo has all the skills to make an impact in clay-court tournaments and already won a title on this surface last year, in Umag, Croatia.
Our ATP Santiago prediction: Francisco Cerundolo to win, at odds of +550!
