Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets and Outrights
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Despite offering up a purse in excess of more than $9,000,000, the Cognizant was a fairly low-key event, with few big-name players featuring at PGA National Members Club, where Joe Highsmith fought off the competition to land his maiden PGA Tour success.
Congratulations to anybody who found that winner last week, especially if you took a punt after the tournament began, with the Washington native battling to make the cut at the end of the second round.
This week, it’s certainly not low-key, not at all. The big dogs are back in force, with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama and Patrick Cantlay all set to feature at one of Florida's golfing gems.
Early betting market
The early betting market ahead of this event currently has, yep, you guessed it, Scottie Scheffler as the favorite. Here are the odds from the top sportsbooks:
Scottie Scheffler +320
Rory McIlroy +750
Ludvig Aberg +1600
Xander Schauffele +1600
Collin Morikawa +2200
Hideki Matusyama +2500
Justin Thomas +2800
Patrick Cantlay +3000
All other players +3500 or bigger.
As is so often the norm, Scottie Scheffler is a strong favorite ahead of this event, which is not all that easy to disagree with. After all, the best player on the planet has played his way to Arnold Palmer Invitational success in two of the last three years, so he clearly has the credentials to get the job done here.
However, if like me, you prefer to look beyond the market leader, then you'll be pleased, as Scheffler’s short price allows a few to stand out at appealing odds. Let’s get into it and see what bets appeal most.
Justin Thomas top 10 finish: +200 with FanDuel
Given the field this week, it would be remiss not to plump for at least one big-name player. Let’s be real, this is an event that has been dominated by the big dogs in recent times, and for my money, Justin Thomas is very much a big dog, one who can bark louder than most this week.
JT, who in 2025 is the PGA Tour’s seventh best player in terms of strokes gained: total, approaches the action in Bay Hill this week having played some decent golf in recent times, making the top 10 in each of his last two tournaments, while he’s finished 9th or better in four of his last six, finishing second once during that time. Not bad at all.
This will be just a fourth appearance for Thomas at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but it’s definitely an event that he’s got to grips with, finishing T12 last season, following a T21 finish the season before. Given his recent form, he really should continue his upward trajectory at this event.
After all, of those in the field to have played this event at least twice since 2016, the two-time major winner ranks as the seventh-best player in terms of strokes gained: tee-to-green, as well as the seventh-best in terms of strokes gained: total. I like those stats, so much so that the 31-year-old is well worth betting on to make the top 10 at odds of +200.
Bet on the Arnold Palmer Invitational with FanDuel
Russell Henley top 10 finish: +330 with FanDuel
Another player bringing some rather solid recent form to the table this week is Russell Henley, and when we pair this recent form with a fourth-place finish at this event last season, the Georgian looks a great top-10 bet at odds of +330.
Henley has his game in great shape right now, and to be honest, that’s been the case for a while, with the four-time PGA Tour winner making the cut in each of his last 18 tournaments, finishing in the top 10 in eight of those tournaments, three of which have come in his last four events. This is a man in fine form, there’s no doubt about that.
In addition to finishing fourth at Bay Hill last year, Henley posted a respectable T13 finish at the 2022 renewal.
Henley also has some solid strokes gained data from previous renewals of this tournament, while I really do like the fact that he brings both recent form and promising previous course form to the table.
From a value for money point of view, there aren’t many better top-10 bets this week, that’s for sure.
Corey Conners top 10 finish & top 20 finish: +500 & +200 with FanDuel
Lastly, I’m going with Corey Conners, both for a top-10 and top-20 finish. Not quite as in form as the two players above, but hey, recent form isn’t everything, right? And anyway, Conners has made the cut in each of his last three events, while he hinted at a big performance when improving to finish T24 just a few weeks ago.
What I really like about Conners is his ability to handle the test at Bay Hill. The Canadian missed the cut when debuting at this event back in 2019, while he did no better the following year, but he’s since got to grips with things at the Floridian venue, finishing T21 or better in each of his last four appearances, including finishing third back in 2021.
In recent renewals of this tournament, strokes gained: ball striking has been the key ingredient, so it bodes very well that Corey Conners ranks as the third-best in the field for strokes gained: ball striking on this track since 2016. That is not a stat to ignore, especially given the odds available here.
The 33-year-old also ranks as the fifth best player in the field for strokes gained: tee-to-green at Bay Hill since 2016, while he’s the number one player for strokes gained: approach. Such stats tell me that Conners could easily enjoy another fine week, and I’m betting on him to do just that.
