ACC Football Futures
by Dan Angell | by Tyler Doty
Best Futures Bets in the ACC
Boy, was that a bad start for the ACC. Florida State’s two-game pratfall wasn’t good, but that could have been explained away by the ACC being tougher than expected. However, any chance of that narrative fell apart when Georgia pounded Clemson and Vanderbilt stunned Virginia Tech. The Hokies had been seen as a contender in the ACC, and they couldn’t handle the last-place team in the SEC. In short, the league didn’t enjoy that week much at all.
And that means the futures market has been reset in the ACC almost completely. Florida State started the year at +450 to win the league; the Seminoles can now be had at +5000. Despite being 0-2 in the league, the Seminoles are still seen as a safer bet than Wake Forest, which goes off at +49000.
Here’s a look at some of the best football bets on the slate in the ACC — as well as one key play to avoid.
Avoid: Any ACC Team to Make the Playoffs
Don’t misunderstand this bet. Obviously, someone in the ACC has to make the playoffs, as the conference champion gets an automatic berth unless the champion somehow finishes worse than that of two Group of 5 leagues. But the “Make the Playoffs” bet isn’t a good one, because you’re going to get worse odds on that than taking that same team to win the ACC.
Here’s the reality: after the Week 1 pratfalls, this conference probably isn’t going to get more than one team into the postseason. To get an at-large bid, an ACC team will need some good out-of-conference wins, and those opportunities just aren’t there for the realistic contenders. Miami’s best non-ACC opponent was Florida. Florida State’s out of the running for an at-large. Clemson’s best chance by far was Georgia. Louisville could do it if it wins at Notre Dame, but if the Cardinals can win in South Bend, they can probably win the league.
The only way this bet cashes without a team winning the conference is if the conference championship comes down to Louisville and N.C. State. The Wolfpack would need to beat Tennessee and the Cardinals would have to beat Notre Dame to make an at-large bid even feasible. At that point, you’re better off just taking either to win the conference.
Bet on the ACC with DraftKings
SMU to Win the ACC (+1000 at DraftKings)
If Florida State isn’t going to get this figured out, the value lies with one of two teams. SMU and Louisville both have the talent to make it to Charlotte, but the Mustangs have a much easier path there than the Cardinals, even with SMU having to go to Louisville. That Oct. 5 game at Louisville is SMU’s only difficult road game, as the Mustangs otherwise travel to Stanford, Duke and Virginia.
Louisville, by contrast, also plays Miami and has to go to Boston College and Clemson in consecutive weeks. The Cardinals will play four of their final six ACC games on the road, and they could easily lose one or two of their home tilts. Getting SMU at +1000 makes far more sense than Louisville at +750.
There’s another reason that the Ponies offer value: SMU’s season opener is looking better than it seemed on first glance. The Mustangs didn’t look great in Week 0 against Nevada, but they did manage to win the game with 16 points in the fourth quarter. The Wolf Pack then turned around and upset Troy on the road. It’s possible that SMU ran into a fired-up home team, absorbed their best punch and came out stronger for it. If that’s the case, this bet can pay off nicely.
Duke Under 5.5 Regular Season Wins (-160 at DraftKings)
The Blue Devils have a win to their name after besting Elon, but they still have a long way to go before they can think bowl eligibility. Duke might get there if Florida State doesn’t figure this out, but if the Seminoles do solve their issues, six wins won’t happen with this slate. Beating either Miami or N.C. State away looks unlikely, and the same holds for SMU and North Carolina at home.
That leaves Duke to find five more wins out of seven remaining games. Going to Georgia Tech and Wake Forest won’t be easy, and if Virginia Tech and Florida State get things straightened out, Duke’s not beating either one at home. The Blue Devil defense will keep them in games, but this team is at least a year away from competing in the new-look ACC. There are also two tough non-conference road games, which means Duke’s a lot closer to dealing with 10 losses than six wins. If you see Duke with better odds to go under 4.5 regular season wins, taking it makes a lot of sense.
Syracuse Under 7 Regular Season Wins (-115 at DraftKings)
People seem to have forgotten that Syracuse does this every season. The Orange win the first game by a larger margin than expected, and things crash from there. Syracuse has dominated the opener three years running, only to come back to reality as the schedule got harder. That was true under Dino Babers, and it’s probably still true under Fran Brown.
The good news for Syracuse is that it won’t leave the Empire State for the first month of the season. But the Orange face a tough Group of 5 foe in UNLV in October, followed by road games at N.C. State and Pittsburgh. The last month of the season sees old Big East rivals Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College, all of whom are capable of handling the Orange.
Seven wins is possible with this schedule, but the Orange need eight for this bet to lose. Most likely, Syracuse will do what it did last year: end with six wins and qualify for a bowl game. And as this is a regular season bet, getting the seventh win in the bowl won’t matter.
Miami Under 10.5 Wins (-135 at DraftKings)
There’s a lot of excitement over how good Miami looked in the second half against Florida. But there’s also a real chance that Florida could just be simply awful this year. The Gators looked disinterested, which led to an easy win for the Hurricanes. Mario Cristobal still didn’t do a great job coaching, and there’s a real chance that coaching costs Miami a game or two before the year is over.
Going to Louisville won’t be easy for Miami, and if Florida State figures out its offense, the Hurricanes will have a tough ask winning that game the next week. Miami looks like a good team, but not a great one. Cam Ward appears legitimate, but the Hurricanes haven’t proven enough to be considered the type of team that wins 11 games. A 9-3 season looks more likely for Miami, which would represent real progress for the Hurricanes.
This is a key part of getting value in betting: there’s always a team that looked a little too good in the first week, and it’s hard for fans to be rational. Miami looks to be that team. This is the time to use the public’s exuberance against it and go the other way.
