3/7/25 NCAA Roundup: Locking Down the Top Spots
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
NCAA Men’s Basketball: Locking Down the Top Spots
A No. 1 seed is supposed to be a huge advantage for the four teams that get one. Virginia and Purdue didn’t get much of an advantage in 2018 and 2023, but getting a No. 1 the next year worked out just fine for both schools. It means getting to play close to your fans, getting two reasonable opponents in your first two games and setting yourself up for the second weekend of the NCAA tournament.
It also affects who you might play before the Final Four. Consider the case of Florida. The Gators can’t be bracketed to meet either Auburn, Tennessee or Alabama because the tournament rules require the top four teams in a conference to be split between different regions. So the Gators know that as long as they hold a top-two seed (which they should), they’re going to be bracketed to meet a top team from outside the SEC in the regional final.
Looking at the top four non-SEC teams, dropping to the 2 line means Florida would likely be projected to face Duke or Houston. Staying on the 1 line would likely give the Gators Michigan State, Texas Tech, St. John’s, Wisconsin or Maryland. All of those teams are solid, but none are as scary as either the Blue Devils or the Cougars. Given the choice, Florida coach Todd Golden would almost certainly much rather play one of the second tier teams on short rest and have a full week to prepare for Duke, Houston or another SEC giant.
The same holds across the field, which is why this weekend matters so much. Here’s a look at the weekend as a whole for your NCAA Picks.
Alabama at Auburn
Auburn needs a bounce-back here after losing at Texas A&M. Falling in College Station is certainly not a bad loss, as the Aggies are sitting on the No. 3 line. But the Tigers need to go into the SEC tournament with some momentum to lock down the top overall seed. Auburn has been the best team all season and played one of the toughest schedules, but the Tigers also carry a loss at Duke.
The good news for Auburn is that Duke would rather play its regional in Newark than Atlanta, so a win here is probably sufficient to keep the Tigers close to home. But Alabama is never easy to play against, and the Crimson Tide are also looking for a big win after four losses in six games. None were bad defeats, as Alabama’s worst loss came at Missouri. But losing three straight to end the year is not where Nate Oats wants his team to be. Falling here would put some pressure on Alabama in the SEC tournament.
Mississippi at Florida
If not for a win in Tuscaloosa back in January, Mississippi might be wearing the dreaded home-court hero label. If not for that win, the Rebels might feel a lot less safe about their tournament future, because they don’t have much on the resume away from Oxford. Beating BYU and Alabama helped a lot, but Mississippi’s lack of consistency on the road is a real problem.
This is another opportunity for the Rebels to prove themselves, but it’s also a spot for Florida to try to move into lock territory for a No. 1 seed. The Gators have been almost unbeatable in Gainesville save for one night where Missouri shot the lights out in the first half. Florida is on track to finish second in the SEC, and a run to the semifinals would likely be enough to get the Gators a No. 1, as long as they don’t take a loss at home. Given Mississippi’s problems on the road, Florida should like its chances.
Arizona at Kansas
The Big 12 counted on this being its glamour finale between blue bloods. Houston and Texas Tech had other ideas. While those schools dominated the league, Arizona is barely hanging on to a top 25 spot and Kansas has fallen out of the rankings entirely. The Jayhawks’ resume is actually pretty frightening, to the point where you have to ask if they’d be safe if their name wasn’t Kansas. Over the course of the Big 12 season, Kansas has beaten one team that’s going to make the field: Iowa State at home.
If the Jayhawks can get a win here, they’d go a long way toward improving their seed. Kansas is likely around the 8/9 line, a far cry from where Bill Self’s teams usually are. At the same time, no top seed is going to want to see the Jayhawks in their bracket because the potential is still there. Arizona is also trying to get some momentum going, as the Wildcats have gone just 3-4 in their past seven games.
Kentucky at Missouri
Missouri’s another team that’s badly in need of momentum. The Tigers took three straight losses away from home, falling at Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. All three were desperate teams, but the Tigers also seem to have forgotten how to play defense. Missouri went from giving up 65 to Arkansas in Columbia to allowing 92 in Fayetteville. The Tigers can score with anyone (case in point: they dropped 110 on Alabama), but if the defense is going to allow 90+ points per game, they’re going to get beat.
Kentucky has alternated wins and losses in its past six games, and the Wildcats have seemed to take one step forward and one step back all year long. Getting a win on the road would make a big difference going to Nashville.
St. John’s at Marquette
Nobody’s going to feel sorry for Rick Pitino and St. John’s, but the Red Storm picked a really bad year to be really good. Getting to play the regionals in Newark would have meant two virtual home games for St. John’s, which sits just across the river. Unfortunately for the Red Storm, Duke and the dominance of the SEC is going to lock them out of the East Regional, which means they’re likely off to Atlanta or San Francisco.
They’ve also still got to worry about Marquette, which has lost just twice at home in Big East play. The Golden Eagles aren’t a great team this year, but they’re still good enough to cause a surprise, especially at home. With St. John’s having wrapped up the Big East title, the Red Storm must be wary of an upset.
Duke at North Carolina
The Tar Heels badly need a win here. Nobody will care that it’s in Chapel Hill; a win over Duke would be sufficient to get the Heels into the field. Actually pulling it off would be quite the feat; the Blue Devils have just one loss in ACC play (at Clemson) and have looked almost unbeatable in the league.
That speaks to the weakness of the ACC overall this year, but Carolina does come in hot and will have the crowd firmly behind it. The Heels have nothing to lose here.
