Champions League Knockout Round: Who will make it through?
by Tyler Doty
Taking Stock After Matchday 7
As we head into matchday 7 of the UCL, here are the clubs who've already qualified for the round of 16, those qualified for the playoffs, as well as the clubs that are out of contention and will not see the Champions League again this season after tomorrow evening.
Clubs Qualified for the Round of 16
Ahead of kickoff in this important matchday 7, only two clubs are officially qualified for the round of 16 of the 2024-2025 Champions League, and are assured of avoiding the playoffs:
- Liverpool
- FC Barcelona
The Reds, in first place, have won all 7 of their matches, conceding only 2 goals, achieving a perfect run so far. Just behind, the Catalan club had a rough start, losing to Monaco, but then went on to win the next 6 matches, including a crushing victory over Bayern Munich.
Playoff Bound
The list of clubs guaranteed to play in the playoffs is much longer below the qualified teams. Here they are:
- Arsenal
- Inter Milan
- Atlético Madrid
- AC Milan
- Atalanta
- Bayer Leverkusen
- Aston Villa
- AS Monaco
- Feyenoord
- Lille
- Brest
- Borussia Dortmund
- Bayern Munich
- Real Madrid
- Juventus
- Celtic
It’s worth noting that each of the clubs on this list can still aim for direct qualification to the round of 16, as Bayer Leverkusen (8th) has 13 points, while Celtic Glasgow (18th) has 12! This suspense will make tomorrow night's action even more thrilling and historic!
Out of the picture
In total, 9 clubs have already been eliminated from the competition and will have nothing to play for in the final match:
- Bologna
- Sparta Prague
- RB Leipzig
- Girona
- Red Star Belgrade
- Sturm Graz
- RB Salzburg
- Slovan Bratislava
- Young Boys
While the points for these teams range from 5 for Bologna to 0 for Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava, they can't catch up with the last team qualified for the playoffs, which is currently Stuttgart (24th) with 10 points.
Our UCL Playoff and Qualifier Predictions
Now that we've had a look at who's out and who's heading through to the next round of this Champions League season, it’s now time for what you’re probably waiting for: Champions League predictions and analyses regarding the teams that will qualify for the round of 16 and the playoffs.
Round of 16 Direct Invites
As a reminder, the clubs ranked from 1st to 8th are officially qualified for the round of 16. And here’s the question everyone is asking before the 8th and final matchday of the unique Champions League group stage: which 6 teams will join Liverpool and Barcelona directly in the round of 16? Our answer:
- Arsenal (away match against Girona)
- Inter Milan (home match against AS Monaco)
- Atlético Madrid (away match against RB Salzburg)
- AC Milan (away match against Dinamo Zagreb)
- Bayer Leverkusen (home match against Sparta Prague)
- Aston Villa (home match against Celtic)
Each of these teams has very manageable schedules on paper, most playing against already eliminated teams, so it’s hard to see how they could fail to confirm their excellent runs and slip up at the worst possible moment. The only change in the current top 8 would be Aston Villa taking the place of Atalanta, who travel to Catalonia to face FC Barcelona... A difficult trip indeed, which could prove costly for the Italian club.
Heading for the Playoffs
Regarding the playoffs, the qualifying spots range from 9th to 24th place. Looking at the list of clubs officially qualified for the Champions League playoffs above, we see that only 6 qualifying spots remain. The situation is simple: only 3 teams outside the playoff spots are still in the race to grab a qualification ticket, and they must win: Manchester City (25th), Dinamo Zagreb (26th), and Shakhtar Donetsk (27th). So, we’re in for a great battle with 9 teams vying for 6 spots.
Here are the six clubs we believe will join the 18 teams already qualified:
- PSV Eindhoven (home match against Liverpool)
- Club Brugge (away match against Manchester City)
- Benfica (away match against Juventus)
- PSG (away match against Stuttgart)
- Sporting (home match against Bologna)
- Manchester City (home match against Club Brugge)
While the first three teams listed don’t have a particularly favorable last match on paper, they will need to limit the damage to maintain a good goal difference. They will also benefit from the match between Stuttgart and PSG. The loser of that match has a high chance of being eliminated, which could give Manchester City, 2 points behind, the opportunity to slip into the playoff spots.
On the other hand, it’s hard to see the two other teams, Dinamo Zagreb (who host AC Milan) and Shakhtar Donetsk (who visit Dortmund), pulling off an upset and securing their ticket on this final matchday. However, this 8th and final Champions League match for the 36 participating clubs is likely to still hold a few surprises. Feel free to arm yourself with the best insights by checking out our predictions by clicking the button below. Good luck to everyone with your bets on these last matches of the Champions League group stage!
