24/25 NBA - A Wide Open Pacific Division

Slumping Suns Open Up Pacific Division Betting

When the Phoenix Suns got off to a flying 8-1 start, those who backed the Suns in offseason futures will have felt vindicated. A 7-17 slump has followed, accompanied by ambitious Jimmy Butler transfer rumors.

A blowout loss to the Indiana Pacers at the weekend prompted Mike Budenholzer to bench Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkić. Beal is at the center of all potential Butler trade packages, but the former Washington Wizards guard is in control thanks to his no-trade clause. 

With the Los Angeles Clippers playing almost half the season without Kawhi Leonard, the Los Angeles Lakers searching for a balance between offense and defense, the Golden State Warriors dropping to .500, and the Sacramento Kings mightily struggling after acquiring DeMar DeRozan, the Suns had an opportunity to build a clear lead in the Pacific Division. 

Suns Odds Drift

Favorites to win the Pacific earlier in the campaign, the Suns have lengthened to +450 at FanDuel. They are out to +3000 to win the Finals and +2000 to win the Western Conference. 

Since their 8-1 start, the Suns are 23rd in net rating (12th in offense, 27th in defense). None of their divisional rivals are in the top 10 over that period, but all four have a better net rating than the Suns. The Clippers have been an elite defensive team, and the Lakers have gone 2-1 since acquiring Dorian Finney-Smith from the Brooklyn Nets.

Golden State moved early to pick up Dennis Schröder in an effort to ease the burden on a mid-thirties Steph Curry. Like the Suns, the Dubs are in a rut, winning only six of their last 18 games, but they remain three spots ahead of Phoenix in the standings.

The Pacific Division has been mediocre so far. Phoenix has been the most disappointing of the quintet considering the cost of this roster. This group was never likely to be durable enough to post a massive regular season win total, but their 7-17 slide leaves them as a non-factor when it comes to futures in NBA betting.

Los Angeles on the Rise

The Kings and Warriors are facing their own extreme roster conundrums. There are murmurings De’Aaron Fox could ask for a trade. Golden State is yet to pick a path and continues straddling the fence with their commitment (or lack thereof) to Jonathan Kuminga. 

That leaves the two Los Angeles teams. Kawhi Leonard has finally made his season debut, joining a Clippers team sitting several games above .500. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have managed to stave off any major injuries, with Austin Reaves stepping up as a more than serviceable third option.

Both the Lakers and Clippers have middling net ratings since the start of December. The Lakers' defense has played at a high level, sitting third in defensive rating over that span. While the Clippers remain a subpar offensive team, Leonard’s return will help.

Wide-Open Race

The Los Angeles pair are the division favorites (Clippers +190, Lakers +220) at FanDuel on January 6th. It’s generous the Warriors are priced at +250 given they have played like a lottery team over the last couple of months, and Curry’s workload is going to be carefully managed amid a nagging knee issue. 

This Suns team is in disarray. Their defense is among the worst in the league over the last few weeks, and the offense has been nowhere near good enough to compensate. Shifting Beal and Nurkić to the bench might help (both had negative net ratings as starters), but it isn’t going to fix the fundamental issues with the construction of the roster. A three-star team is almost impossible to make work under the current CBA. 

The attention and hype surrounding the Lakers often means the purple and gold are poor value in futures markets, but that isn’t necessarily the case here. All five Pacific Division teams are flawed, yet the Lakers have made the biggest step towards addressing their issues with Finney-Smith. 

Still armed with first-round picks, Rob Pelinka could yet make other trades to improve their frontcourt depth and perimeter defense. Walker Kessler and Cam Johnson are two possible fits. 

With the same record as the Clippers and slightly longer odds, the Lakers are the value pick to win the Pacific with the Suns and Warriors trending in the wrong direction.