24-25 NBA Most Improved Player Race: Plenty of Longshot Value

Prepare for the Fascinating NBA Most Improved Player Race

The Most Improved Player race is wide open as Christmas approaches. The top US sportsbooks have Jalen Williams, Tyler Herro, Jalen Johnson, and Dyson Daniels priced between +300 and +550 on average, as the four favorites. The chasing pack is made of six players between +1500 and +3000, including Evan Mobley, Cade Cunningham, and Jalen Suggs.

The three most recent winners – Tyrese Maxey, Lauri Markkanen, Ja Morant – reflect the general pattern with this award.

Players with a much higher usage rate, leading to a marked jump in their points per game, are the leading candidates. 

This has been the case throughout the history of the Most Improved Player award, and there are no signs that will change, even with the accessibility of advanced statistics. 

Four Favorites 

Williams’ role hasn’t changed much offensively. His scoring is up 2.6 points per game. Defensively, though, he has had to play as a small ball five for significant minutes this season and performed at an All-Defense-caliber on that end of the floor. 

Herro is scoring 3.4 more points per game. Johnson’s scoring is up 3.6, along with markedly higher assist and rebounding numbers. 

Daniels is scoring 13.4 per game after a career-high 5.8 last season. The centerpiece of the Dejounte Murray trade in the offseason, Daniels has started all 25 games for the Atlanta Hawks in 2024-25 after making 27 starts in two seasons as a New Orleans Pelican. He’s also leading the league in steals. 

Williams will be in the spotlight as the second option on a Thunder team expected to win at least 55 games, and he’s bound to have some statement performances throughout the rest of the season. 

Herro is the worst value of the top four. He’s improved, but not sufficiently to be ranked alongside Johnson, Daniels, and Williams. He’s already been a 20-point-per-game scorer for three straight seasons.

Johnson’s fourth-year leap from promising former first-round pick to a scoring two-way wing fits cleanly with what voters are usually drawn to. 

Longer Shots

The best value lies beyond the top four, however. Teams are yet to reach the 30-game mark this season, giving plenty of time for further breakouts and production to increase. 

Suggs, for instance, is priced at +3000. The former fifth-overall pick has increased his scoring by 3.7 points and has even managed to increase his steal and block numbers. The efficiency is down, but Suggs showed last season he can be a reliable three-point shooter. 

The value here comes from opportunity. Suggs has averaged 21 shots per game since Franz Wagner was sidelined with an oblique injury. With Paolo Banchero not expected to be back on the hardwood until after Christmas and Wagner out until midway through January at least, Suggs can put up some big numbers with a higher usage rate.

Norm Powell might be in his age-31 season, but he is a real contender for Most Improved Player at +1500. Powell is shooting almost 48% from three while averaging a career-high 23.2 points per game. 

Whether this is sustainable is uncertain, but this is clearly a marked improvement. Kawhi Leonard’s return would lessen his usage – that doesn’t seem like an immediate concern for bettors.

Don’t overlook LaMelo Ball here either. LaMelo hasn’t played since the end of November due to a calf issue, which leaves him at +2500 with FanDuel. This is excellent value given how he was playing earlier in the year.

The 2020-21 Rookie of the Year was averaging over 31 points per game in the NBA (7.2 more than his career high). He was getting to the line more than ever before and had been red-hot to end November with insanely high usage. His MIP odds will tumble if he comes back and continues to score 30+ per game.