2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball: Top Valentines Weekend Matchups
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
NCAA Men’s Basketball: Battle for the Big East
What Rick Pitino has done at St. John’s shows two things. First, the man was born to coach college basketball. Pitino used that phrase as the title of his autobiography in 1988, and it’s applied as long as he hasn’t tried his hand at the NBA. It hasn’t mattered where he’s been in college basketball — Louisville, Kentucky, Providence, Iona, Boston University and now St. John’s — he has won.
The Red Storm are going to be the sixth different team that Pitino takes to the NCAA tournament. At 21-4, St. John’s is very much on track for a high seed in March. But the Red Storm are in position to dream for more. It’s harder to remember these days, given how far the program has fallen since Lou Carnesseca retired, but the Red Storm were once a national power far more often than not.
But St. John’s hasn’t won an NCAA tournament game since 2000, and it hasn’t won the Big East since finishing in a three-way tie in 1992, Carnesseca’s final year in Queens. Pitino has the Red Storm in position to end that 33-year drought, if they can survive the final stretch. And given that they’ve already lost once to Creighton, the biggest of those games comes on Sunday.
Here’s a look at the weekend as a whole.
Creighton at St. John’s
The first meeting between the Bluejays and the Red Storm is going to drive Pitino nuts if St. John’s can’t finish the job by winning the Big East. The Red Storm did everything right to beat Creighton in the first matchup but one: they couldn’t put the ball in the basket. St. John’s easily won the turnover battle, forcing 19 Creighton giveaways. But the Bluejays survived 57-56 because St. John’s shot just 36.8% from the floor. And because of that, Creighton sits one game back of the Red Storm.
That probably isn’t going to work a second time. The Bluejays are one of the best in the country at forcing teams to take bad shots, as it’s the staple of their defense. Creighton rarely forces turnovers, relying on its defenders to force a miss. But if St. John’s gets off another 65 to 70 shots and is able to create some easy layups, Creighton’s going to have to do better than 57 points to survive a second time.
Missouri at Georgia
A tournament bid is there for the taking for the men from Missouri. Realistically, the Tigers probably need one more win to lock up an NCAA bid as long as they don’t take a loss at home to South Carolina. The Gamecocks are the only bad loss the SEC offers this year, and Missouri’s schedule affords plenty of chances to lock up a spot and a solid single-digit seed.
Georgia’s situation is far more perilous. The Dawgs just have not done enough to warrant a spot, not right now. They’ve given away two golden chances for Quad 1 wins in Athens, losing by two to Auburn and one to Mississippi State. Outside of Stegeman Coliseum, Georgia has been pretty poor. Five of their past six away from home have been double-digit losses, and they’re quickly running out of chances to put a big win on the resume. Missouri represents a great opportunity, but the Tigers’ 3-point shooting and ability to force turnovers don’t match up with Georgia’s strengths. The Dawgs need to get rebounds to win, and that requires Missouri to miss shots, something Missouri usually doesn’t do.
Wisconsin at Purdue
This is probably the worst time for Wisconsin to play Purdue. The Boilermakers are now feeling the pressure in the Big Ten race by virtue of blowing the lead at Michigan, which knocked Matt Painter’s team to second place. Purdue now comes home to Mackey Arena, where it has lost just once all season.
But Wisconsin is coming in hot, having won its past three games. The Badgers are also very comfortable playing the Boilers. Last year, Wisconsin picked off Purdue in overtime in the Big Ten semifinals, and the teams have split their past eight meetings. All eight have been decided by eight points or less, with five of them being decided by four or less.
Both teams have their own way to put up plenty of points. Wisconsin leads the nation in free throw percentage, and Purdue is tops in adjusted field goal percentage. This will likely be another high-scoring tight battle.
Houston at Arizona
Arizona had the Big 12 race exactly where it wanted things last week by beating Texas Tech. All the Wildcats had to do was avoid the trap at Kansas State and they’d be in position to take control of the Big 12 by beating Houston.
They didn’t. Kansas State came up with a 73-70 win, and Arizona is once again looking up at Houston in the Big 12 standings. And that’s a big problem, because slow-paced teams have been Arizona’s biggest issue under Tommy Lloyd and the Wildcats don’t get a second shot at the Cougars. The Big 12 intentionally gave Arizona two games with fellow glamour squad Kansas, but it’s Houston that has dominated the Big 12 for most of the season.
Kelvin Sampson’s team frustrates the heck out of its opponents with defense and methodical basketball. When Arizona has gone home early under Lloyd (see: Princeton, Clemson and Houston), it’s fallen to a team that takes its time with the ball. This appears to be a really bad matchup for the Wildcats, and a loss here would probably mean the end of their league title hopes.
Michigan State at Illinois
The flu might have knocked the Illini out of the Big Ten regular season title race, but they’re going to have a lot of chances to make up for it. When fully healthy, Illinois is probably the most talented team in the Big Ten. Michigan State’s coming into Champaign at an awful time, as the Spartans have lost three of their past four games.
It could get worse before it gets better for Tom Izzo’s team. Michigan State has mostly been the beneficiary of a weak schedule, and the Spartans have three of their next four games away from East Lansing. The one exception in there is Purdue. None of these games would hurt the Spartans if they lose, but they’d have a tough time maintaining their seed if they go on a long losing streak. This is one where they need a strong showing.
Auburn at Alabama
You have to love SEC fan bases. Basketball was long an afterthought at Auburn, until the Tigers took a big swing and hired Bruce Pearl. And once Pearl built the Auburn program into a national contender in 2018, Alabama bolted into action. The Crimson Tide had let their basketball program fall to the scrap heap after Nick Saban started racking up football national titles, but as soon as Pearl got Auburn rolling, Alabama responded by hiring Nate Oats.
And now the top two programs in the nation both reside in the Yellowhammer State, as No. 1 Auburn visits No. 2 Alabama in the biggest regular season game either side has seen in a while. Nobody pushes the pace like Alabama, while Auburn can play either fast or slow depending on the opponent.
The battle of No. 1 vs. No. 2 might come down to No. 4. That would be Johni Broome for Auburn and Grant Nelson for Alabama. The two No. 4’s both lead their teams in rebounding, and with how Alabama wants to run, whoever controls the boards and the paint is more likely to win this game.
