2025 MLB Totals: KC Royals
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Underwhelming offseason makes the Royals win total under a good wager
The Kansas City Royals went 86-76 last season en route to an ALDS sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees. Led by a 9.4 bWAR season from Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals exceeded preseason MLB predictions and had a Pythagorean win-loss record of 91-71.
It is fair to question if this was sustainable, however. Kansas City was 11th in xwOBA on offense and 18th from their pitchers. Seth Lugo’s 206.2 innings with a 3.00 ERA are not going to be repeated. Michael Wacha amassing a career-high 3.5 bWAR in his age-32 falls into fluke territory, while Brady Singer is now a Cincinnati Red after being traded for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer.
Carlos Estévez was the only external acquisition in free agency. Wacha and Michael Lorenzen re-signed. There weren’t any major departures, with Yuli Gurriel, Paul DeJong, Will Smith, Robbie Grossman, and Garrett Hampson contributing a combined zero bWAR in 2024.
James McArthur, Maikel Garcia, and Kyle Wright are uncertainties for the opening day roster with all three recovering from surgery. Garcia played 157 games in 2024. McArthur recorded 18 saves.
Win Total & Playoff Odds
DraftKings has the Royals’ win total at 83.5. It’s 82.5 at FanDuel. Bettors can get under 83.5 at -110 with DraftKings as of Feb. 25.
PECOTA has the Royals winning 81.5 games. FanGraphs has the Royals going 81-81 with a -1 run differential, which would see them land third place in the American League Central. Both projections have Kansas City a considerable distance off the final wild-card spot – FanGraphs has seven teams ahead of the Royals in the wild-card race.
The DraftKings price of -130 for the Royals to miss the playoffs suddenly looks like phenomenal value.
Kansas City largely stood still this offseason. Estévez helps a team which was 20th in bullpen ERA and 26th in bullpen K-BB% last season. Other than that, the rotation has been weakened by Singer’s departure, and they are banking on mid-thirties starters (Lugo and Wacha) continuing to perform at 20% or more above league average.
Reliance on Young Arms & Position Player Breakouts
Cole Ragans is an ace-caliber pitcher. Witt is going to be in the MVP mix even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in 2024. Lucas Erceg is a good back-end reliever. Salvador Perez is going to hit for power.
Beyond that, though, this Royals team faces a lot of uncertainty. Their rotation is banking on Noah Cameron and/or Luinder Avila to contribute a significant amount of big-league innings in 2025.
The bullpen projects to be just above average thanks to Erceg, Estévez, and Hunter Harvey. It’s not going to be an elite group, though, so don’t expect a deep relief corps to compensate for any shortcomings in the rotation.
Offensively, more hitters above 110 wRC+ are required if they are to be a top-10 offense. Vinnie Pasquantino has his positives, but he was below average in barrel rate last season and a .331 xwOBA isn’t anything to get too excited about. Michael Massey looks to be a solid double-play combination with Witt, though there isn’t any star-level upside there.
Drew Waters is going to get another crack at the big leagues after an .872 OPS in triple-A. Nick Loftin and CJ Alexander should have chances to make an impression after impressing in the minors last season, too.
For a team coming off an 86-win season, though, the Royals’ offense is massively dependent on breakouts around Witt and Perez.
Nelson Velázquez and MJ Melendez are yet to become productive MLB players despite their tools. Both will get a chance again in 2025, but a becoming even an average player is more hope than expectation at this point. Melendez has had over 1,500 MLB appearances, and Velázquez has zero bWAR in 194 games.
Take The Under
Sure, the Royals could squeak above this line. Their division isn’t stacked, and it’s not like any of their AL Central rivals made major moves to get better this winter.
There’s a path to 84 or more wins where Witt has 9+ WAR again, with Massey, Perez, Pasquantino, and India providing enough to get the offense to above average. Ragans gets named an All-Star, while Lugo and Wacha eat innings to around a 4.00 ERA.
Kansas City isn’t going to lose 90+ games, but they look like a .500-ish team as it stands. It wouldn’t take much for them to fall to below 80 wins, so going under 83.5 is a no-brainer.
