NFL Divisional Playoffs: Revenge is a Dish Best Served in the Postseason
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Fans in Houston probably remember it like it was yesterday….
With a field goal early in the second quarter, the Texans took a commanding 24-0 lead over the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2019 Divisional Round matchup. It looked like the Texans would make the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history.
But then Patrick Mahomes did what he does and led the Chiefs on four second-quarter touchdown drives to take a 28-24 lead into the half before going on to win 51-31.
Since then, many players and coaches have come and gone for both teams. Fans, however, remember the emotional roller coaster. Once again, expectations are low for the Texans heading into Arrowhead.
But is there reason to believe things could go better for the Texans this time?
Actually—yes. Mahomes and Andy Reid are still there, but the Texans will bring a top-five defense (total yards) with them this time. If it can play as well as it did against the Chargers in the Wild Card game, there is a chance the Texans will ruin Kansas City’s shot at a historic Super Bowl three-peat.
Another Quick Exit for Houston?
Going on the road has been a raging disaster for the Texans in the playoff. Houston has actually never made the playoffs without winning its division, so this could be a tad skewed because the Texans have never gotten to play round 2 in front of their own fans. But the fact remains that Houston is 0-5 in the divisional round, as the Texans tend to get totally overwhelmed by this moment each year.
Kansas City has a good chance to make it 0-6. The Texans looked just acceptable against the Chargers last week, and they’re sending C.J. Stroud out to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. During the year, Stroud has stood still at best, and the Texans were only fortunate enough to make the playoffs by winning a very weak division.
While Stroud ended up with a solid line against Los Angeles, he’s been far less effective when he has to play outdoors. The Chiefs have a big home-field edge at Arrowhead Stadium, and the Texans’ history away from home is ugly. If Kansas City can force Stroud to press early on, it can force the key mistake it needs to knock Houston out of the game early.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
It was the Divisional Round of the 2019-2020 NFL Playoffs. Lamar Jackson got the playoff monkey off his back with his first postseason win in the wild-card round, setting up a date with Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills, in the Divisional Round.
Hopes were high for the Ravens, but they were quickly dashed as the Buffalo defense kept Jackson in check, ultimately winning the game 17-3. The outcome was decidedly different when these two met during Week 4, as it was the Baltimore defense and Derrick Henry that owned the day, with the Ravens winning 35-10.
While that moment had to feel good for fans, winning a regular season game is not the same as the post-season. Buffalo brought Baltimore’s dream to an end in 2020. While most NFL predictions currently favor the Bills, the Ravens would undoubtedly love to return the favor.
Ground Game is Key in a Battle of Two MVP QBs
This was the game that established the Ravens as real contenders when the teams met in late September. In the first meeting, Buffalo had no answer for Derrick Henry, who piled up 199 yards on the ground and ripped off an 87-yard touchdown.
With Lamar Jackson playing at an MVP level, the Bills can’t afford to let Henry go wild. They also can’t afford to have their own ground game get shut down. Buffalo couldn’t keep up with Baltimore because its running game really went nowhere on the Ravens, who own the best run defense in the NFL. Baltimore is very weak against the pass by comparison, but the Bills are at their best when they can let Josh Allen find holes in the defense with his legs as well as his arms. When he has to play in the pocket, he’s not as effective. The Bills cannot afford to fall behind early and let the Ravens dictate the flow of the game.
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
These two teams have not played since the 2022 season. While the Lions have won the last two times they played the Commanders, the need for revenge is ever-present just the same.
Few professional franchises have a playoff history as sparse and unsuccessful as the Detroit Lions. In the Super Bowl Era, postseason success has been hard to come by in Detroit. Prior to last season, the Lions had made the playoffs 12 times and recorded one playoff win (in the ’92 postseason).
On three occasions, including the 1992 NFC title game, it was Washington that ended Detroit’s season. Expectations are higher for Detroit heading into this game, which could be fate setting Lions’ fans up for another fall.
But a win over a team that has a history of ending their playoff hopes…victory will be just a little bit sweeter.
Fate Lies on Lions' Defense
Jayden Daniels made a statement in the Commanders’ win over Tampa Bay. In Week 1, the rookie was totally unprepared to handle the adjustment to an NFL defense, and the Buccaneers’ blitz packages forced him to make several freshman mistakes. In the rematch, Daniels showed how much more comfortable he has become leading the Washington offense.
Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will have noticed, which means the Lions will likely dial back their blitzes somewhat. The Buccaneers have an aggressive defense that can be exploited when the quarterback handles the pressure, and Daniels did exactly that last week. The Lions don’t feel the need to rush quite as often as the Bucs, and Glenn has been known to mix up his defenses to meet the moment.
Look for the Lions to be strategic about when and how they blitz. The goal is to keep Daniels from getting comfortable, and the first quarter will tell a lot. If Washington can’t move the ball early, expect a rout. If the Commanders score in the first quarter and stay close, it will likely be tight to the end.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The revenge theme is not as strong in this game as it is in the other four. The Eagles have a two-game winning streak against the Rams and have won eight of the last ten times these two teams have played, but the need for revenge remains.
For much of the 2017 season, the Eagles were the dominant team in the NFL and appeared on the verge of starting their own dynasty with Carson Wentz on the road to becoming a future Hall of Famer. But then the Eagles played the Rams in Week 14.
While they won, Philadelphia lost Wentz to a season-ending knee injury. In the end, it didn’t matter since Nick Foles led the Eagles to a win in the Super Bowl. But it did delay the rise of the Philly franchise to the NFL’s elite.
To further the revenge narrative a little more, this game will be the third postseason meeting between the Eagles and Rams (1989 and 2002). Los Angeles won both.
Eagles Offense In Charge
Were the Rams that good last week, or were the Vikings that bad? That’s the big question to ask here, as Los Angeles looked a little too good in pounding Minnesota into the dust. Some of that could have been the Rams playing inspired after getting forced from their homes by the wildfires, and some probably had to do with the Vikings running out of gas.
Truth be told, the Rams probably weren’t as good as the final score indicated. Minnesota had a fumble recovery nullified on a bizarre call of an incomplete pass that would have tied the game at 10 well before Los Angeles could force Minnesota to get desperate. That’s not going to work against Philadelphia. The Eagles’ defense looked frightening against Green Bay for all the right reasons. Philadelphia knows how to win defensive rock fights and features the best overall defense in the NFL.
The Rams have played strong defense for the past several weeks, but it’s come mostly against the league’s weaker offenses. The Eagles control the game well and stick to their strengths. That’s likely to be a tough combination to beat.
