NCAA Women’s Basketball: Groundhog Weekend Matchups
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Groundhog Weekend
Groundhog Day might mean no NFL action, but that’s OK because it’s delivered a whale of a slate for NCAA women’s basketball. With just a month until women’s conference tournaments get started, now’s the time for teams to begin looking at their resumes and finding the quality wins they need to either make the field or earn a top-four seed and two home games.
There’s also conference crowns to think about. In the Big Ten, for example, USC and UCLA are on a collision course for the league title in their first season. The Bruins are the nation’s only undefeated team at 20-0, while the Trojans carry one loss to No. 3 Notre Dame. They’ll meet in mid-February and again at the start of March, and they might have three matchups in a span of a month before all is said and done.
But before we get there, we’ve got several big games on tap. Here are some of the games to watch on Sunday, plenty of info for your basketball predictions!
Tennessee at Missouri
This is the kind of game that Tennessee cannot afford to lose. The Volunteers have lost three in a row now, and they’re slipping further away from a top-four seed. Tennessee finds itself stuck behind six powerful squads in the SEC, and the Vols have already lost to all of them except Kentucky.
On paper, Missouri shouldn’t be much trouble. The Tigers are 1-6 in the league and nowhere near making the tournament. But Missouri picked off Mississippi State last time out, and the Tigers have played better at home. With Tennessee facing games with Connecticut and LSU next week, this is a classic trap game. The Vols have to take care of business at Missouri.
USC at Iowa
Caitlin Clark’s not walking through that door, and Iowa has fallen back to earth as a result. The Hawkeyes haven’t fallen to the scrap heap by any means, but it’s clear that Iowa is not South Carolina and can’t easily bounce back from losing a star of Clark’s caliber.
Lucy Olsen is a good scorer, but she’s nowhere near what Clark brought to the table. And that’s going to make it hard for the Hawkeyes to match up with JuJu Watkins and SC. The Trojans have been destroying most Big Ten opponents, and only Maryland and Indiana have hung within 20 points of them since Dec. 21.
The Hawkeyes’ best weapon here is desperation. A win here would get Iowa off the play-in line and firmly on the right side of the bubble. Iowa will only have three other home games, and while one of them is UCLA, betting on beating the Bruins isn’t a good idea. Beating the Trojans isn’t much easier, but it’s Iowa’s best shot at locking up a bid.
Notre Dame at Louisville
Don’t sleep on Louisville. The Cardinals only have one questionable loss all year, a five pointer at Virginia Tech. Every other defeat came to a ranked team, and they picked off Georgia Tech at home three weeks ago. Louisville’s 3-point shooting leaves a lot to be desired, but the Cardinals can force turnovers from anywhere on the court, and every player they put on the floor can score.
If the Cards are going to pull the upset, they have to force some mistakes from Hannah Hidalgo. Notre Dame’s do-everything guard is averaging 25.4 points per game and shoots 49% from the floor, so stopping her is pretty much impossible. But she does have a weakness: she’s prone to turning the ball over. If the Cardinals can force a few steals, they have a real shot to topple the Fighting Irish. If Hidalgo’s able to get consistent looks at the hoop, it’s going to be a long day for Louisville.
Minnesota at UCLA
Time for the Golden Gophers to find out how good they really are. Minnesota has been a basketball backwater ever since Maryland coach Brenda Frese left Minneapolis for College Park and her players circulated through the program. The Golden Gophers haven’t made the tournament at all since 2018 and haven’t been past the second round since 2005.
But Dawn Plitzuweit appears to have built something in Minneapolis, and the Gophers have a no-risk, all reward trip to Los Angeles. They’ve yet to record a signature win, having failed against ranked opponents Nebraska, Maryland and Michigan, but they’ve beaten everyone else they’ve played.
Whether they can keep this close depends on whether Mallory Heyer can slow down Lauren Betts. UCLA’s dominant center has the ability to take control of a game on her own, and she’s been virtually impossible to handle in the paint. Heyer has emerged as Minnesota’s best rebounder, and she’ll need to at least battle Betts to a draw to give her team a shot.
Kentucky at Oklahoma
The Sooners have a big opportunity to get a home win over a ranked Kentucky squad, but the Wildcats need this one just as badly. Kentucky is sitting in a three-way tie for second place behind South Carolina, but the Wildcats haven’t gotten the respect they’d expect because of a relatively weak schedule. When you include power conference opponents like Arizona State and Purdue, a combined 15-32, you’re going to take a hit from the committee.
Oklahoma is still trying to figure out where it fits in the SEC. The Sooners have an encouraging win over Tennessee in Knoxville, but they’ve otherwise only beaten who they were supposed to beat. Their latest loss was a rout, but South Carolina does that to almost everybody.
The question here is whether this game is played more on the perimeter or inside. Oklahoma wants to get the ball to Raegan Beers in the paint repeatedly, while Kentucky would rather let Georgia Amoore shoot it from deep. Whichever team dictates the flow wins.
Kansas State at Kansas
If the Jayhawks are going to have a chance at the tournament, a win in the Sunflower Showdown is a must. Kansas has made postseason play three years running, including two NCAA tournaments. But the Jayhawks have found the going rough in the new-look Big 12, going just 4-6 in the league to date. Kansas has won two straight league games and did win at Oklahoma State, so there’s definitely some talent here.
Kansas State took its first league loss at Colorado and now has a precarious hold on a top-four seed. If the Wildcats can’t keep S’Mya Nichols under wraps, they could take a serious hit to their hopes of hosting.
