2025 NCAA Women’s Final Four: How Each Team Wins the Title
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Final Four: The Path to Victory
On paper, the NCAA women’s basketball tournament wasn’t quite as chalk as the men’s, as at least one No. 1 seed failed to make the Final Four. But that gets a rather large asterisk, because the one to fall short was USC, and only after JuJu Watkins tore her ACL. The Trojans made the regional final, but fell to No. 2 seed Connecticut. And if the Huskies are the definition of “Cinderella” when they’re in the Final Four for the 16th time in 17 years, that’s as chalk as it gets.
The truth is, the women have been dominated all year by six teams, and basketball picks suggested correctly that only four could get through to this stage. Notre Dame relatively came apart at the seams down the stretch, but the Big Five of UCLA, USC, Texas, South Carolina and UConn have been a cut above the rest for the past two months. And with USC hampered by Watkins’ injury, the best four teams as they are now did make it to Tampa.
But who’s going to claim the title, and what do they have to do to make it happen? Here’s a look.
Texas: Make Madison Booker Effective
The Longhorns know who they are. They lock down and take away shots, they put the squeeze on teams and they rely on Madison Booker to take good shots. And against South Carolina, Texas’ Final Four opponent, that has not happened. Booker has only made 26% of her shots against the Gamecocks and averaged 12.3 points per game. Not a terrible number, but certainly not what Texas needs from her.
And the Longhorns are dependent on Booker because they will not shoot 3-pointers. The arc might as well not exist for Vic Schaefer’s team: Texas has taken the third-fewest 3-point attempts in the nation. Connecticut and UCLA both average more than 20 attempted 3-pointers per game; Texas has taken 24 for the entire tournament.
With the 3-ball not an option, Booker has to be a big part of the Texas offense for her team to have a chance. In the win over the Gamecocks in Austin, she scored 20 of her team’s 66 points and got help off the bench from Kyla Oldacre. A repeat performance and a strong early start — this team cannot play from behind — are critical.
South Carolina: Wear Down the Opponent
The Final Four has broken into two different situations. UConn and UCLA have the star power on the floor, Texas and South Carolina decidedly do not. The Longhorns’ star is their defense, and the Gamecocks’ star is their depth. South Carolina might be the only team in the country that can put any of 10 players on the floor and not suffer any drop in quality, which speaks to how well Dawn Staley recruits as a whole.
But that can be a double-edged sword: if the game comes down to one star needing to take over, South Carolina doesn’t have that type of player. What the Gamecocks can do is wear down the other team’s star and then win the game in the fourth quarter with their experience. South Carolina is the defending champion, and after missing out last year, not even Connecticut can boast the experience the Gamecocks have at this level.
In the semifinals, South Carolina knows it must stop Madison Booker a fourth time. In the final, the Gamecocks have to find an answer for either Lauren Betts of UCLA or Paige Bueckers of Connecticut. How the Gamecocks handle that star power will decide if they repeat as champions.
UCLA: Don’t Get Intimidated
The No. 1 overall seed in the field is also the only new kid on the block. Texas hasn’t been here in years either, but Vic Schaefer is in his third trip to the Final Four after going twice at Mississippi State. Not so for Cori Close, who had only ever reached the Elite Eight once in 12 seasons with a tournament and had previously gone 1-6 in the last 16. This is new territory for the Women of Westwood.
And that’s far from ideal with a path likely to include Connecticut and South Carolina. The Huskies have plenty of Final Four experience, and the Bruins have nothing they can rely on in that category. UCLA has to remember how good it is and do the things that got it here. That means relying on a big game inside from Lauren Betts and getting good decisions with the ball from Kiki Rice.
While Betts is UCLA’s best player, Rice might be the Bruins’ most important player. She sets up most of UCLA’s offense, and she proved instrumental in leading the Bruins to the Big Ten tournament title. Depending on what Connecticut tries, UCLA will either have to flow its offense through Rice if the Huskies focus on Betts or through Betts herself if the Huskies concede Betts and try to stop Rice. With how guard-heavy Connecticut is, the latter might be the strategy.
Connecticut: Own the Perimeter
Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd simply aren’t stoppable when they get rolling. South Carolina learned that the hard way earlier this year when it lost by 29 to the Huskies. To put in perspective how much of a beatdown that was, Bueckers fed Ashlynn Shade for a 3-pointer seven minutes into the game to go ahead 14-11, and the Gamecocks never got even again.
And why did that happen? Because Connecticut shot 46.4% from behind the arc. The Huskies know they have the best guards on the floor, and they can play as five guards if they so choose. Their problem is a lack of size, which makes their matchup with UCLA so intriguing. Lauren Betts has the size but can also play outside if she needs to, and Connecticut’s only answer for her is to either outscore her or make sure the ball never gets there.
If the Huskies get to play either South Carolina or Texas, they have the edge on the perimeter by a mile. The concern is the defense, but neither the Gamecocks nor the Longhorns have the ability to outscore the Huskies if they’re making their long shots.
Who Takes the Title?
Guards win championships, and so do old coaches. Connecticut has looked like the best team in the field for months now, and with Bueckers and Fudd fully healthy and hitting, it’s hard to see anyone knocking the Huskies off.
Every team has some way that it can at least match up with Connecticut, whether it’s UCLA’s size, Texas’ defense or South Carolina’s depth. But if the shots start falling, nobody is going to have an answer. The feeling is that Geno Auriemma wins his 12th national title.
