NCAA Men’s Basketball: February Starts With a Bang
by Tyler Doty
NCAA Men’s Basketball: February Starts With a Bang
If you’ve watched any sporting events in February or March, you’ve almost certainly heard ESPN talking about how North Carolina vs. Duke men’s basketball is the greatest rivalry in college sports. And while it’s definitely up there as one of the biggest games on the calendar, it won’t even crack the top five of big games for this loaded Saturday.
Out of the top 25 teams in the nation, 10 of them are playing another top 25 team, which shoves North Carolina-Duke out of the top tier this time around. (The Tar Heels currently are unranked).
All of these games have massive implications for who’s going to play near home, as the top four seeds get assigned to the site closest to them in March.
There’s also conference seeding to worry about, which is more important than ever in the superconference era.
Carolina and Duke will play a second time, but for most of the big matchups, it’s one meeting only. And even that isn’t enough for some of these second-tier games. Saturday’s slate is so loaded that John Calipari’s return to Kentucky as the visiting coach doesn’t even warrant a breakdown among the six biggest games. (Part of that is because Arkansas is 1-6 in the SEC). Here’s a look at the biggest games on a Saturday that’s full of them.
Florida at Tennessee
The basketball world is slowly discovering that Florida might very well be a legitimate national title threat. The Gators carry just two losses, and both are forgivable: losing a shootout in Lexington to a good Kentucky squad and then falling to a hot Missouri squad that could not miss in the first half. In between those games, they embarrassed Tennessee with a 30-point rout of the Volunteers.
That’s what Rick Barnes’ teams do to their opponents, not what they have done to them. And that game might have punctured the aura of the Volunteers’ invincibility.
Tennessee was 14-0 when it rode into Gainesville, but the Vols are just 3-4 int their past seven games.
They have not played well away from Knoxville, and they just got beat at home by Kentucky. The defense just isn’t locking down the way Tennessee did earlier in the year.
That said, Florida is vulnerable on the road. In between slamming Texas and Georgia by an average of 27 points at home, the Gators nearly handed South Carolina its first SEC win of the season in Columbia. It almost certainly will be closer than the first meeting, but will it be close enough for Tennessee to blunt Florida’s run toward a No. 1 seed?
Missouri at Mississippi State
When Missouri came into Gainesville and beat Florida, the thought was more that the Gators had been unlucky rather than the Tigers proving themselves. It turns out that was a statement, as Missouri sits 5-2 in the SEC and can now reasonably be thinking top-four seed.
The Tigers have another golden opportunity at a signature win, given how Mississippi State’s poor defense seems to play right into their hands. The one thing you can’t be against Missouri is bad at defending the 3-point shot, and the Bulldogs are really weak in terms of perimeter defense. They also don’t shoot it very well themselves, which underscores some basic math in this game.
Mississippi State’s game is to dominate the glass, clean it up for some easy 2’s and limit opponents to a shot and no rebound. The Bulldogs do it well, but there are no rebounds if you make all your shots. Missouri is capable of making most of its 3-pointers, and if the Tigers are scoring 3 while the Bulldogs score 2, it doesn’t take a math major to see what’s likely to occur.
Auburn at Mississippi
Chris Beard can really coach defense. The problem is that the Mississippi offense occasionally leaves something to be desired. The Rebels aren’t good shooters away from the basket, and they don’t extend possessions off their own missed shots. If they don’t set up an easy basket off a steal, they’re likely going to have a tough time working for a bucket.
And that’s virtual death against Auburn. The Tigers do almost everything well, but they really excel at inside-outside basketball because of what they bring to the table. Auburn are excellent marksmen from behind the arc, and the Tigers have Johni Broome down low to clean up misses and score on the putback. About the only thing that could count as a weakness is Auburn’s ability to take care of the basketball, but the Tigers are so efficient when they don’t turn it over that it hardly matters.
After three straight losses, Mississippi finally stopped the bleeding by beating Texas.
But the Rebels have to keep the wins coming, and this is the rarest opportunity on the schedule: a chance to get a Quad 1 win on their home floor. If the Ole Miss offense can create early opportunities, it has a chance to pull off a stunner.
Texas Tech at Houston
There was never a doubt Grant McCasland was going to make Texas Tech a contender in the Big 12 again. The question was when, and the answer appears to be now. The Red Raiders arrive at the Fertitta Center at 7-2 in the Big 12, winners of seven of their past eight games. The one loss was by a point in overtime to Iowa State, a potential top seed.
The Red Raiders face another potential top seed in Houston, which has won 13 in a row and often squeezes the life out of its opponents.
Five Power 5 teams have visited the Fertitta Center this year, and the average offensive output has been just 48.4 points.
The Cougars’ defense set a new mark for domination last time at home, holding Utah to an anemic 36 points.
Texas Tech is playing with house money in this game. The Red Raiders’ real opportunity will come next month, when the Cougars travel to Lubbock. This game is more about finding out what works against Houston and whether the Red Raiders’ edge on the boards can be the advantage they need to best the Big 12’s top dog.
North Carolina at Duke
Even though it’s not a matchup of two Top 25 teams, it’s still a marquee game. It’s also a desperate situation for Carolina. With three losses in four, the best thing on North Carolina’s resume to this point is beating UCLA on a neutral floor. Getting a win over the Bruins is nice, but it’s the only thing of value the Tar Heels have to their name. Everything else against a good team has been a close loss where they couldn’t get it done.
With the ACC lacking in quality wins (Clemson and Pittsburgh are currently the only other possibilities, although Florida State is getting there) this year, the Tar Heels have to have this game. But after consecutive poor showings against Wake Forest and NC State, Duke might have its lack of focus out of its system. If so, that’s disastrous for Carolina.
Connecticut at Marquette
If Connecticut intends to challenge for the Big East title, it has to make a stand here. Dan Hurley’s two-time national champions look like they might have to settle for being merely good this season, as the Huskies have split their past six games.
The inconsistency likely sorts itself out eventually, which is why the pressure is on Marquette. This is a tough game for the Golden Eagles, who don’t shoot well enough to have an edge on the Huskies. If Marquette can’t force enough turnovers, this could be a chance for Connecticut to announce its return to form.
