2025 Men's Final Four: How Each Team Wins the Title
by Tyler Doty
For only the second time since seeding the NCAA tournament began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. But thanks to the dominance of Cooper Flagg, the public and a large majority of basketball predictions are clearly behind Duke to cut the nets down, which would be the Blue Devils’ sixth national title in program history. Florida is looking for its third title, and Auburn and Houston would like to put their first in the trophy case.
The two SEC teams will meet in the first semifinal on Saturday, with the Blue Devils and Cougars squaring off in the second. The survivors play Monday for the national championship.
Here’s a look at what each team is going to need to do to win the title.
Auburn: Broome Must Win the Battle
If Johni Broome is the best player on the floor, Auburn can win the national title. If not, this is simply not going to happen. And that was the problem when Florida came to the Jungle: Broome was not the best player on the floor.
He didn’t win his battle with Florida big man Alex Condon, playing him to a draw at best. Yes, Broome scored 18 points, but he needed 19 attempts to do it and converted just eight. Condon went 7-for-10 and scored 17 points, and was able to stay on the court for 33 minutes. That can’t happen again if the Tigers hope to beat the Gators, because Florida is too good on the offensive glass. The Gators ranked second in the SEC to Texas A&M in rebounding, and Auburn doesn’t have an answer for the Gators’ guards if Broome and Dylan Caldwell aren’t dominant inside.
Auburn is unique in that it’s 0-2 against Final Four opponents, having already lost to Duke by six in Durham. The Tigers would have a better chance against Houston, as the Cougars’ biggest offensive strength (3-point shooting) matches well with Auburn’s strong perimeter defense.
Florida: Get to the Foul Line
The Gators’ foul shooting was instrumental in their comeback against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders only shot 7-for-13 from the stripe; Florida went 25-for-27. And Auburn is the type of team that will send opponents to the foul line regularly, so the Gators have a built-in advantage there.
This strategy requires Alex Condon to attack the rim and hopefully get Broome in foul trouble. Florida’s edge is on the perimeter, and the quicker the Gators can get into the bonus, the more chances Walter Clayton Jr. will get from the stripe.
The challenge for Florida is that it’s difficult to see who the Gators would have the edge against in the final. Neither Houston nor Duke is likely to fall into Florida’s trap of sending the Gators to the line, as both teams tend to be slower-paced and don’t foul very often. What’s more, both teams shoot the 3-pointer very well, a strength the Gators haven’t always dealt with well.
Houston: Hit Some Perimeter Shots
It’s weird to talk about offense first as the main thing for Kelvin Sampson’s team. It’s especially weird after the Cougars’ defense put the squeeze on Tennessee, a team that is built to grind out games. But when the other team has Cooper Flagg and you’re the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, the offense is going to be what matters.
Duke is going to win this game if Houston tries to play it inside the perimeter. As good as the Cougars are at defending down low, Flagg is a challenge unlike anything they’ve faced all season. That said, the Cougars are far from helpless. Houston was the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the nation in 2024, and the Cougars have an excellent scorer in LJ Cryer.
Cryer has been on this stage before, winning the title with Baylor in 2021. He’s going to have to be the one to show that experience matters in March for Houston to pull this off. If the Cougars make the final, Cryer’s defense will be critical, as the Cougars will need to force some turnovers and create some easy buckets to attack both SEC opponents’ weaknesses.
Duke: Let Flagg Go To Work
Having the No. 1 draft pick is rarely a guarantee for success. In fact, several teams with the consensus No. 1 fail to make it out of the first week of the NCAA tournament. But Duke has the best player in the field, and the rest of the Blue Devils have given him enough help that Cooper Flagg is enough to make the difference on most nights.
Duke’s biggest issue is going to be unlocking the Houston defense and making sure that the ball gets to Flagg and not the Houston guards. The Blue Devils do make mistakes with the basketball, relatively speaking. They were the ACC’s best at avoiding turnovers, but they still gave it up 9.4 times per game and did not make up for it by forcing their opponent to give the ball away.
Flagg would again be the difference-maker against Auburn, as he’s one of the few players in the nation who can go up against Johni Broome and expect to win the battle. But there are things working against the Blue Devils here: most Final Four coaches do not win on their first trip to college basketball’s brightest stage. Jon Scheyer is in his first trip to the Final Four (as is Florida’s Todd Golden), and Kelvin Sampson has been here twice before. That could make the coaching matchup the Blue Devils’ Achilles’ heel, as Scheyer just doesn’t have the experience Sampson does at this stage in his career.
Who Takes the Title?
Sampson being here a third time likely means more than people think. This brings back memories of the 1986 NCAA title game when Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski didn’t yet know what he was doing at that level and got outcoached by Louisville’s more experienced Denny Crum. Later in his career, Krzyzewski knew exactly what he did wrong at the Final Four and fixed those mistakes, but in 1986, he was a first-timer who didn’t get his players as prepared as they needed to be.
The same seems likely to happen to Scheyer and to Golden. Experience matters at the Final Four, and Sampson and Bruce Pearl have far more of it. The expectation is that Houston’s defense and veteran leadership make the difference, leading to the Cougars finally fulfilling Sampson’s vision and winning the program’s first national championship.
