NCAA Men’s Basketball: Who Needs Success Most in Championship Week?
by Tyler Doty
NCAA Men’s Basketball: Championship Week
This is it: the final week before what everyone has waited for. And in the multi-bid leagues, it’s the last chance for many teams to make their final case to the committee.
Unless you’re Nebraska, which likely ended its case the wrong way by collapsing down the stretch. The Cornhuskers lost for the fifth straight time, and they will now not qualify for the Big Ten tournament, as the league only allows 15 teams to make it. So the Huskers end the season at 17-14, and they probably needed something closer to 20-12 to get into the field. And that means Nebraska’s status as the only power conference team to never win an NCAA tournament game will continue another year.
Other teams do have chances, and there’s always the possibility of a bid thief or two. Memphis and the American Athletic Conference is the best place to look for one. The Tigers are safely in the field, but if they fail to win the American conference tournament, that league will get a second bid. And that means the teams who need a big week can take nothing for granted.
ACC: North Carolina
The Tar Heels have an opportunity, but not a great one. They really would have loved to come through the bottom half of the bracket, possibly earn a win against Louisville or Clemson and then either lose respectably to Duke in the ACC final or beat someone else. But SMU then lost to Florida State, dropping the Mustangs into a three-way tie with Carolina and Wake Forest and putting the Tar Heels in the top half of the bracket.
That’s a problem because now they have to potentially face Duke in the semifinals. A bigger problem is the Tar Heels were very bad against the other six ACC teams with a winning record in the conference. North Carolina was 1-6 against that group, including a loss to Wake Forest. That’s the same Wake Forest that finished fourth (meaning it would face Carolina in the quarters) and also needs a run to make the NCAA tournament. So just to get to Duke, the Heels have to survive a win-or-else game against either Pitt or Notre Dame and then solve the Demon Deacons. Put simply, a lot needs to go right.
Big East: Xavier
Xavier is the rare bubble team other bubble teams are rooting for and not against. And that’s because after seven straight wins, the Musketeers are probably on the right side of the bubble. But if they lose to Marquette, they probably land in the First Four, and absolutely nobody wants to play Xavier in Dayton, less than an hour from Cincinnati.
The Musketeers split with Marquette, with both teams claiming a two-point win on the other team’s court. Xavier is hot right now, and one more win over the Golden Eagles likely secures a bid. If it’s not enough, beating St. John’s in the semifinals would do it for sure.
Big Ten: Indiana
Nebraska’s pratfall means that Indiana is now the team with the most to lose in Indianapolis. All of that is crazy to write, considering Mike Woodson already announced his forced retirement at the end of the season. But the Hoosiers have won five of seven and have managed to play their way right onto the bubble.
That’s the good news for Indiana. The bad news is that one of the two losses came last week to Oregon, and the Ducks happen to be opponent number one on Thursday. Fortunately for the Hoosiers, Oregon doesn’t have to win to make it, the game will tip off at 9 a.m. Pacific time and Indianapolis is a lot closer to Bloomington than to Eugene. If they win here, Friday against Michigan State would be no-risk, all-reward.
Big 12: Baylor
As the No. 7 seed, Baylor has a single bye in the Big 12 tournament, but a difficult first round game. Kansas State and Arizona State are both good enough to represent opportunities, which means they’re good enough to be dangerous. Neither is close to making the tournament, so both will be desperate because they have to win five games in five days.
That puts Baylor in a precarious position. The Bears might survive with a loss, but if there are bid thieves, they’re probably out if they go down. So they’ve got to produce a strong showing and get at least one win, maybe two.
SEC: Georgia
The Bulldogs appear to have gotten to the finish line. Now they just need one more win to get back to the NCAA tournament, where they haven’t won a game in 23 years. Georgia is the classic high ceiling, low floor team, which makes it very tough to project what you’re going to get from the Bulldogs. And they can’t afford to have the low floor appear, because facing Oklahoma might well be an elimination game.
The Sooners also are close to the tournament, although they probably need to beat Kentucky to feel safe in making the field. Georgia can shut down Oklahoma’s case for sure, and it can end all debates if it takes down the Wildcats.
Mountain West: Colorado State
Realistically, the Rams have to make it to Saturday to think they’re going to qualify. Even though Colorado State is the No. 2 seed, it doesn’t have as strong a resume as No. 4 San Diego State or No. 3 Utah State. But the Rams have won seven in a row, and one was a 27-point rout of Utah State to begin March.
The Aggies seem to be fading, and the Rams are surging at the right time. Colorado State getting to the final and losing to New Mexico would probably be enough to get the Rams on the right side of the cut line. However, if there are bid thieves or if the Lobos lose to San Diego State or especially Boise State, the Rams would probably need to go ahead and win the automatic bid.
Bid Thieves: Where Are They Likely?
There are three strong contenders for a possible bid thief. The Missouri Valley could have been a fourth, but Drake took care of business and likely got itself a No. 11 or No. 12 seed by winning the automatic bid.
The likeliest place is the American, where North Texas probably needs to win the automatic bid to claim a spot. The Mean Green are good enough to do it, and the tournament is close by in Fort Worth, less than an hour from their campus. In the Atlantic 10, Virginia Commonwealth might have done enough, but the Rams look more shaky after a home loss to Dayton. They might need to go win the league tournament to feel secure, and probably at least have to make the final.
Finally, UC-San Diego is an interesting case. The metrics love the Tritons, who went 28-4 in their first season where they’re eligible for an NCAA bid. But they only beat one likely NCAA team, and they would likely have to take a bad loss to need an at-large bid. If the Tritons make the Big West final, they likely make the field. But at that point, it’s better to remove all doubt.
