2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds: Ware Surges To Become Favorite
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Kel'el Ware On Top
Kel’el Ware has appeared from nowhere to become the 2024/25 NBA Rookie of the Year favorite. Ware has scored 19.6 points per game over his last five, overtaking Stephon Castle, Alexandre Sarr, Jaylen Wells, and others in FanDuel’s odds.
On Dec. 20, the Miami Heat center had played under 70 minutes in the NBA. Since then, he’s played 20 times, averaging just under 22 minutes per game while scoring 11.7 points per contest and shooting 44.7% from 3-point range.
The Heat are one of two franchises – along with the Denver Nuggets – to have never produced a Rookie of the Year winner. Ware, selected 15th overall last summer, would be the first player picked outside the top 10 to win the honor since Malcolm Brogdon topped the voting in 2016/17.
Wide Open Race
The 2024 NBA Draft was relatively weak with no standout prospects. The Rookie of the Year race has been wide open as a result. It’s a big change from last year when, as noted in our NBA predictions, Victor Wembanyama was heavily favored in the preseason and became the sixth player to win the award unanimously.
Jared McCain, Alexandre Sarr, Zach Edey, Stephon Castle, and Yves Missi have had stints as the Rookie of the Year favorite prior to Ware’s surge. McCain is out of the year with a torn meniscus, having been by far the top rookie performer in the first few weeks of the campaign.
Wells has been important on a competitive Memphis Grizzlies team. He and Edey feature in the Grizz’s best lineup, which ranks sixth in net rating (among those with 100+ possessions).
Edey and Castle have been inconsistent on the offensive end. Their odds have fluctuated as a result. Sarr has put up numbers, but he’s not had many eye-catching performances on a woeful Washington Wizards team. Missi has had some big statistical nights, yet he’s only averaging 7.5 points and 6.9 rebounds over his last 15 outings.
Ware’s Charge
Sarr and Castle are the only rookies with a higher usage rate than Ware in January. Of players getting significant minutes, Adem Bona is the only rookie with a better true shooting percentage this month.
Significantly, Ware has been helping the Heat stay afloat amid the chaos surrounding Jimmy Butler’s trade request. Miami is +4.2 points per 100 possessions with the rookie big man on the floor and -0.3 in minutes without him.
He leads all rookies in scoring over the last 15 games. Just two players – Sarr and Donovan Clingan – are averaging more than his 7.1 rebounds.
There’s no reason for Ware’s to decrease significantly. Miami has found a decent formula pairing the rookie with Bam Adebayo in the frontcourt. Whatever happens in a potential Butler trade, that combination should still be feasible.
This is still a pretty small sample, though, so bettors should be Ware-y of a sharp decline in his efficiency. Miami is still trying to be competitive – his minutes could be slashed if shots stop falling.
Castle’s Opportunity
Castle has the usage (22.8% for the season) to put up some big numbers over the remainder of the regular season. He’s a work in progress as a shooter, making only 25.9% of his threes, but he’s getting the volume to score double-digit points per game. Much of his offense is powered by taking 42% of his shots from the restricted area (94th percentile among combo guards).
Despite spending most of his minutes on the court with Victor Wembanyama, Castle is averaging 13.9 field-goal attempts per game over his last seven.
Chris Paul has been surprisingly healthy this season, starting 43 games. Castle’s usage is inevitably higher when Paul is off the court. An injury to Paul, or a change in role, could give the San Antonio Spurs rookie an opportunity to up his field-goal attempts and assist numbers.
Castle represents the best value in this market as it stands. There will be plenty of attention on his performances with people tuning in to watch Wembanyama, which could help to sway some voters in the second half of the season.
Recent Rookie of the Year Winners
- 2023/24 – Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
- 2022/23 – Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
- 2021/22 – Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
- 2020/21 – LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
- 2019/20 – Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
- 2018/19 -- Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
- 2017/18 – Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
- 2016/17 – Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks
- 2015/16 -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2014/15 – Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
Unanimous Rookie of the Year Winners
- 2023/24 – Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
- 2015/16 – Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
- 2012/13 – Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
- 2010/11 – Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
- 1989/90 – David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs
- 1983/84 – Ralph Sampson, Houston Rockets
