2025 NBA Play-In: Key Factors to Look Out For Ahead of Tuesday
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
The 2025 NBA play-in tournament promises to be exhilarating (in the Western Conference, at least). Stakes are high as the Memphis Grizzlies face the Golden State Warriors, with the winner facing the Houston Rockets and the loser having a best-case scenario of taking on the historically great Oklahoma City Thunder.
In the east, whichever two teams progress are going to be swept aside by the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. Still, the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, and Miami Heat are teams at different stages in their life cycles, with the outcome of the play-in tournament likely to have an impact on team-building decisions this offseason.
The play-in tournament has been a great positive for the NBA, igniting the end of the regular season and starting the postseason off with some high-stakes games. Before making your next NBA picks, here are some key factors to consider:
Warriors Fatigue
The veteran Warriors went all-out for the win against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday. Taking the game to overtime, Jimmy Butler played 48 minutes, with Steph Curry and Draymond Green playing 38 apiece.
Golden State lost three of its last five regular-season games to drop into the play-in tournament. A matter of days ago, the Dubs had realistic hopes of homecourt advantage in the first round, but a Harrison Barnes game-winner and a home loss to the Clippers left them in the unforgiving situation of a seven-eight clash with the Grizzlies.
The Warriors are at home to Memphis and heavily favored by sportsbooks. A win would put them in position to be a real threat in the playoffs, given a first-round matchup with the Houston Rockets, who lack postseason experience.
Memphis won’t be an easy out for Steve Kerr’s team. The Grizz haven’t played well down the stretch, but they have been there and done it in this matchup.
Grizzlies Post-Jenkins Era
The Grizzlies sacking Taylor Jenkins seemed to come from nowhere. Even if Jenkins wasn’t expected to spend much longer with the team, the timing was peculiar. Firing their head coach in the latter stages of the regular season was surely done with the aim of bolstering Memphis’ playoff chances.
Memphis, though, only went 4-5 under Tuomas Iisalo. They were 17th in net rating over that period, despite Ja Morant’s controversial celebrations.
If they don’t beat the Warriors, the Grizz are probably getting swept by the Thunder. If they get past Golden State, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Memphis pushed the Rockets to six or seven games.
The outcome of the play-in tournament will be decisive when evaluating the decision to move on from Jenkins.
Are the Bulls Actually Good?
The Bulls aren’t going to make a deep playoff run, but they could sneak into the first round. Chicago isn’t a team to be taken lightly, having gone 17-10 with the 10th-best net rating since the All-Star break.
Miami, their opponents in the nine-10 matchup, are 12-17 over the same period. Beating the Heat wouldn’t be a major surprise, nor would getting past the Magic or Hawks to lock in a series with the Cavaliers.
It would still be a step in the right direction for a team in the quagmire of mediocrity for the last half-decade. In Josh Giddey, Coby White, and Matas Buzelis, there is finally something to build around in the Windy City.
Getting playoff experience won’t make them contenders in 2026, but it will certainly help as the front office looks to take this team to the next level.
Offense Meets Defense
The Magic have the third-best defense since the break and a bottom-10 offense. The Hawks are a near-elite offensive team with a bottom-10 defense. It’s a simplification to say it’s offense versus defense, but that’s the general blueprint of the East’s seven-eight contest.
Does Orlando generate enough good looks against a porous defense? How much does Dyson Daniels impact their half-court game?
On the other end, does the size of the Magic stifle Trae Young?
It’s a fascinating clash of styles. A loss for the Magic would be far more painful than it would be for the Hawks given how Orlando played earlier in the season.
What Have the Kings Got Left?
Twentieth in net rating since All-Star, the Sacramento Kings have had another disappointing season. The tandem of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine has worked out as expected – the Kings are nowhere near the standard of the West’s top teams, just as the Bulls suffered in the East.
Malik Monk is out for the first game of the play-in. Falling to the injury-hit Dallas Mavericks might lead to another shake-up in Sacramento.
While this is a low-ceiling and fundamentally flawed team, there is still a path to the playoffs if DeRozan and/or LaVine get cooking.
