NBA: Our Play-In Tournament Picks
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Quick Reminder: How Does the Play-In Work?
As we’ve outlined in our NBA betting guide, the teams that finish 7th through 10th in each conference enter a mini-tournament to fight for the last two playoff spots.
- The 7th seed plays the 8th seed, with the winner clinching a playoff berth.
- The loser of that game gets a second chance by facing the winner of the 9th vs. 10th matchup.
- The winner of that second game takes the final playoff spot.
- Higher-seeded teams host the games.
Let’s get into our picks for which teams will punch their ticket to the postseason.
Eastern Conference: Orlando Magic (7) vs Atlanta Hawks (8)
Orlando started the season strong and even cracked the top four in the East. But since January, things have fallen apart. Key injuries to Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Mo Wagner derailed the team’s momentum.
Banchero and Franz Wagner are back, but Suggs and Mo Wagner are out for the season. As a result, the Magic slipped into the play-in zone. Still, even with those setbacks, this young squad has the depth to make it out of the play-in and into the first round of the playoffs.
We’re picking Orlando to beat the Hawks.
As for Atlanta, it’s been another underwhelming season. Once again, the Hawks struggled to find direction or consistency. That being said, Trae Young has been phenomenal, leading the league with 11.6 assists per game. French rookie Zaccharie Risacher has also impressed and is in the mix for Rookie of the Year.
But from a team perspective, Atlanta has been a mess—lacking chemistry and identity. At the trade deadline, they dealt De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic, signaling a step back in ambition.
Our pick: Orlando simply has more weapons. With Banchero, Wagner, and Cole Anthony, the Magic are far less reliant on a single star than the Hawks are with Young. Plus, they’ll have the home crowd behind them. A win for Orlando looks very likely.
Eastern Conference: Chicago Bulls (9) vs Miami Heat (10)
Chicago once again finished in the East’s mid-tier, landing 9th just like last season. They even traded away star Zach LaVine to Sacramento mid-year.
Surprisingly, that move unlocked something in the team. Behind Coby White and Josh Giddey, the Bulls caught fire down the stretch, winning 15 of their last 20 games. The team has real momentum heading into the play-in.
Tyler Herro might just lead his team into the second round of the Play-In Tournament.
Meanwhile, Miami has had a shockingly bad year, going just 37–45—its worst record since 2014–15. On top of the poor play, drama swirled around a rumored Jimmy Butler trade to Golden State, which unsettled the locker room.
Our pick: Chicago is rolling, but in a one-and-done scenario, experience matters—and Miami has it. With Bam Adebayo, Herro, Duncan Robinson, and coach Erik Spoelstra, this core has been to two NBA Finals. A road win in Chicago wouldn't be a shock. In fact, Miami could ride that win to a full playoff berth by beating the loser of Magic vs. Hawks.
Playoff picks from the East: Orlando and Miami.
Western Conference: Golden State Warriors (7) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)
The Warriors were underwhelming for most of the year, but everything changed at the trade deadline with the acquisition of Jimmy Butler from Miami. His impact was immediate.
Golden State went on a tear, winning 22 of their final 30 games. But a couple of late slip-ups—including a crushing overtime loss to the Clippers in the season finale—dropped them to 7th and into the play-in.
That final game left the Warriors exhausted—and now they have to turn around and play again two days later.
On the other hand, Memphis started the season strong and sat in the top three in the West early on. But down the stretch, they fell apart—losing 17 of their final 30 games. The collapse was so bad that head coach Taylor Jenkins was fired.
Our pick: Golden State’s short turnaround and rough play-in history (0-3 all-time, including a loss to Memphis in 2021) raise red flags. Memphis rested their starters in their final game and start their play-in match fresher than their opponent. We’re taking the Grizzlies to knock off the Warriors again.
Western Conference: Sacramento Kings (9) vs Dallas Mavericks (10)
Sacramento’s season was full of chaos. After a slow start, head coach Mike Brown was fired, and not long after, star guard De’Aaron Fox requested a trade.
He got his wish, landing in San Antonio in a multi-team deal that brought Zach LaVine from Chicago to the Kings. The team didn’t light it up post-trade, but did enough to finish 9th and reach the play-in.
LaVine and DeMar DeRozan will be key here.
As for Dallas, the season turned into a full-blown disaster after Luka Dončić was shockingly traded to the Lakers in early February. The move was widely criticized—especially after Dončić led the team to the Finals last year.
Things only got worse when Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in March. The team limped to the finish line.
Our pick: Sacramento has the talent—and the home-court firepower—to take this one. But they’d still need to win again on the road against either Memphis or Golden State to reach the playoffs, and that’s a tall order. We expect Memphis and Golden State to ultimately secure the West’s final two playoff spots.
Playoff picks from the West: Memphis and Golden State.
