2025 NBA: How Jimmy Butler’s arrival has elevated the Golden State Warriors
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
The Golden State Warriors shortened from +8000 to +3500 after trading for Jimmy Butler. Forty-eight days later, the Dubs are a legitimate title-winning option when making NBA picks with odds as short as +1200 to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy at BetMGM.
Golden State is tied for the third-best record in the Association since Butler debuted. Their 9.5 net rating puts them fifth over that period and a long way ahead of sixth. Since Butler was acquired, the Warriors are playing at a level reserved for the three title favorites and the Detroit Pistons.
This trade was clearly a risk at the time. The Warriors had tried to acquire Kevin Durant and had previously resisted the temptation to move for Butler, but when the price dropped, the opportunity was too good to turn down, even if it meant trading away Andrew Wiggins.
Regardless of the outcome of this season and the long-term Butler experience, this has been a success for Golden State. They have given Steph Curry and Draymond Green another shot – albeit slight – at a title without completely mortgaging the future.
Two-Way Improvement
The leap from the Dubs begins with an elite defense. They are tied for the best defensive rating in the league with Butler. Their defense has improved by 3.6 points per 100 possessions over that period.
On offense, they have moved from 18th to ninth. Steve Kerr’s team are always among the league leaders in assist rate, but they are assisting a higher percentage of their buckets with Butler than they were previously.
Green has become the Defensive Player of the Year favorite. Butler has locked in on that end. Moses Moody and Gary Payton II are very good defensive players. Despite predominantly running undersized lineups with Green at the five, Golden State is gang rebounding, keeping them around league average in rebounding rate.
On offense, Butler has been happy to play second-fiddle to Curry. He’s averaged 11.8 field-goal attempts per game since the trade, but has still stepped up when required, with eight games of 20 or more points.
Clearer Roles
The Warriors’ roster was a bit crowded before the trade. The front office had done a good job at collecting solid rotational players, but the fit was clunky with Jonathan Kuminga as a starter, and Brandin Podziemski was enduring a sophomore slump.
Kuminga has returned to the bench after injury, a role he’s much more suited. Podziemski has been put back in the starting lineup alongside Green, Butler, Curry, and Moody. Again, being a tertiary playmaker is a better use of his skill set.
The formula for the Warriors became clear once Butler arrived. Curry, Green, and Butler can cover the playmaking. Kerr has flexibility around them, so long as the other two players can shoot. That can be Buddy Hield getting up shots from all over the gym, it can be Moody’s length on the wing providing a two-way presence, or Quinten Post bringing size with Green in the frontcourt.
What’s the Warriors’ Ceiling?
With Curry set to miss a few games and coming off a loss in Miami, the Warriors are only half a game ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Clippers in the race for the sixth seed.
Finishing sixth might be the sweet spot for the Dubs. As it stands, they would face the Denver Nuggets, which would be an enthralling first-round matchup. It could also result in a duel with the Houston Rockets or Memphis Grizzlies.
Green thinks they have title-winning upside. Kerr and Curry have typically been less brash when speaking about the impact Butler has had, but this star triumvirate makes for a scary opponent in a seven-game series.
Butler, thanks to his messy departure from South Beach, is well-rested compared to his peers. Green is playing his best basketball in years, and Curry has seemingly been rejuvenated by the trade.
Golden State probably doesn’t have the size to go all the way, but would it be a surprise to see them reach the Conference Finals? They have an abundance of playoff experience and two of the league’s most impactful clutch players. Anything is possible if the bracket falls in their favor.
