Why the Cavaliers are a legitimate threat to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference
by Tyler Doty
The Cleveland Cavaliers have one of the seven best net ratings in NBA history. They have had three separate winning streaks of 10 or more games, leaving them six games clear of the Boston Celtics in the loss column and 13 ahead of the New York Knicks.
Kenny Atkinson is the overwhelming betting favorite for Coach of the Year. Donovan Mitchell is on course to earn a First Team All-NBA berth. Evan Mobley is likely to land an All-NBA spot, too, and sits as the clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year.
This is Cleveland’s best regular season without LeBron James in over 30 years. It is likely to be their highest ever win total (their previous two seasons with a winning percentage above .700 were with LeBron). The 1988/89 and 1991/92 campaigns are the only times the Cavs have had a better than .659 winning percentage without LeBron.
All-Timer of a Regular Season
Last season’s Boston Celtics and this season’s Oklahoma City Thunder are two of the four teams in league history with a better net rating than the Cavs. The others are two of the Chicago Bulls’ second three-peat seasons, and the Golden State Warriors in their first season with Kevin Durant.
This Cavs season is in all-time company. The Golden State and Chicago teams were dynasties. Boston cruised through the Eastern Conference to win the title last season.
Cleveland is 22-6 against teams above .500. Thirty-seven of their 55 wins have been by 10 or more points. Their offense is comfortably the best in the league, while the defense has been elite when Mobley has been on the floor (109.8 defensive rating in those minutes).
Effective on the boards at both ends, making 39% of their threes, and rarely turning the ball over, this season stacks up against any in over 75 years of NBA history.
Lineup Versatility
Lineups with Darius Garland, Mitchell, Mobley, and Jarrett Allen have been dominant. Combinations of the four have – unsurprisingly – been incredibly effective. The Cavs don’t have a Hamptons Five-style death lineup to roll out come playoff time, however.
Instead, Atkinson has flexibility, particularly after acquiring De’Andre Hunter from the Atlanta Hawks at the trade deadline. Georges Niang was the only rotation player that saw Cleveland’s net rating decrease significantly in his minutes – the Minivan was flipped to the Hawks in the Hunter trade.
Boston’s fifth best and sixth-best players are better than Cleveland’s.
The Cavs have plenty of serviceable options to slot next to their four stars, though, and have sufficient variety in size and skillset to mix-and-match around two or three of Mitchell, Garland, Allen, and Mobley.
Hunter is most comfortable as a three, yet he has the size to play the four. Strus is an elite shooter, capable of playing the two or three. Sam Merrill is also a knockdown shooter. The combination of Strus and Merrill enables the Cavs to go smaller and spread the floor with shooting next to one of their star guards.
Dean Wade offers size and defense. Wade can play the three next to Allen and Mobley to go big. He can slide to the four with Allen or Mobley at the five, providing shooting, and useful rebounding. In a pinch, Wade could even play some smallball five in certain matchups.
Isaac Okoro is much better suited to a bench role than he was an undersized three. Vastly improved as a standstill shooter, Okoro is an excellent perimeter defender, making him a good wing to play when Strus and/or Merrill are on the court.
Ty Jerome might be the best bench player in the NBA this season. Hitting almost 44% of his threes, the former Thunder guard has been exceptional all year and feels destined to have a season-altering playoff game or two.
Atkinson can go big if the Celtics put Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis on the floor. He can push Mobley to the five with four shooters against the Indiana Pacers or Milwaukee Bucks. He can matchup with whatever the New York Knicks do.
Excellent Value at Current Price
Despite a history-making regular season and a well-balanced, highly talented roster, the Cavs are as long as +215 to win the Western Conference at DraftKings.
Cleveland is 5-3 against the Celtics, Thunder, and Denver Nuggets. They have lost one of nine games against the Bucks, Pacers and Detroit Pistons, one of which is likely to be facing the Cavs in the second round.
Boston deserves to be narrowly favored given their run to the title last season. Sportsbooks seem to be underestimating this Cleveland team, though, which has checked every box this season.
