2025 MLB: Taking Stock of Underperforming Hitters
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
There’s a reason baseball has a 162-game season. Weird things happen in small samples, with the quality of a player’s performance often not reflected in their production. Over a three-week period, elite players can have a low OPS even if they’ve been smoking the ball.
Weather, ballpark dimensions, and defensive performance can influence whether a player records a hit or not. A ball hit at the same speed, angle, and spin rate can be a home run in one park and a long flyout in another.
Equally, sometimes a ground ball will sneak through an infield, while others will be dealt with by a great play from a third baseman.
Expected statistics at this stage of the season give us a good indication of which players have been unlucky. These hitters are likely to see an uptick in their offensive production in the near future, which is worth considering when making MLB picks.
Matt Olson
Matt Olson only has one home run as of April 15. According to Baseball Savant, Olson has 3.1 expected home runs on the season, with three batted balls that would have been home runs in most parks.
It’s safe to say the .631 OPS won’t last for long. Olson is in the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate, 90th percentile in barrel rate, and 93rd percentile in xwOBA. Thus far, his numbers are as good or better than those from his spectacular 2023 season when he hit 54 home runs.
The Atlanta Braves have plenty of problems this year. Olson, despite his poor stat line, is not one of them. He could yet put together a season worth of a spot on the All-MLB team.
Andrew Vaughn
The 158-point difference between Andrew Vaughn’s wOBA and his xwOBA is the largest in the majors. The .336 xwOBA isn’t anything to get too excited about for a bat-first former third overall pick, but it shows he deserves to have a much better OPS than his current mark of .383.
Vaughn is barrelling the ball more frequently than ever before. His weakness against breaking pitches remains, but he’s doing plenty of damage against fastballs.
While getting up to an .800 OPS won’t turn the season around for the Chicago White Sox, it would give a more accurate reflection of one of their core players, who could be a trade asset this summer.
Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette’s OPS is 112 points better than last season. He has still been pretty unlucky in the first fortnight or so of the new season, however, as he’s posting the best xwOBA of his career, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. Bichette also has a batting average 59 points below his expected number.
Cutting his strikeout rate and excelling against all pitch types, Bichette is poised for a big walk year. His numbers in 2024 are looking more and more like an anomaly, which could set him up to receive a massive, multi-year deal in free agency.
In the meantime, he could help the Toronto Blue Jays fight for the AL East if he keeps this up.
Jo Adell
Ranked as the second-best prospect in the sport by Baseball Prospectus before the 2019 and 2020 seasons, Jo Adell’s career 79 OPS+ represents a disappointment for the Los Angeles Angels. Adell’s 78 OPS+ in 2025 looks like it’s going to more of the same.
There are signs the former first-round pick might finally be breaking out, however.
His average exit velocity is almost three miles per hour higher than any other season. His 13.3% barrel rate is in the 79th percentile and the best of his career, contributing to a 74th percentile xwOBA.
Having also cut down his chase and whiff rates, there’s a world where Adell is an above-average hitter in 2025 given his elite bat speed.
Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña is in the 86th percentile in xwOBA. He’s got a 94 OPS+ with only four extra-base hits so far this season. Only six hitters have a bigger gap between their wOBA and xwOBA at the time of writing.
Peña’s walk rate has leapt, he’s cut down his groundball rate, and he’s pulling the ball in the air far more often than before. His 8.3% solid contact rate is way above his career mark of 5.5%. Overall, he’s been much more patient, cutting down his swing rate and chasing less, which has helped to bring his strikeout rate down.
Taking more first pitches – and taking more in general – is helping Peña make better contact. His underlying numbers so far are way, way better than any other season. Once he gets some more batted-ball luck, there’s a clear path to an .800 or better OPS.
