Is preseason the best time to back Roki Sasaki for NL Rookie of the Year?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
"Roki" of the Year?
Roki Sasaki is the +225 favorite for National League Rookie of the Year at DraftKings. After a prolonged battle for his signature, Sasaki took the predictable route – signing with the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
The arrival of the Japanese star is part of the reason many people will be picking the Dodgers to go back-to-back in their preseason MLB predictions. Los Angeles has three of the MVP favorites in Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, multiple Cy Young contenders, and the NL Rookie of the Year favorite.
DraftKings’ odds have Sasaki comfortably ahead of Dylan Crews (+380) and Matt Shaw (+425) in their opening odds. The trio are in a league of their own with Bubba Chandler sitting +900.
Track Record
Sasaki arrives in the majors with a 2.02 ERA in four NPB seasons. His fastball tops out at 102 mph, and his splitter is one of the best pitchers on the planet. He boasts a career 0.883 WHIP, while striking out over 10 hitters per nine innings.
The numbers are eye-catching. Sasaki also has impressive breaking pitches to keep hitters off balance.
A minor drop in fastball velocity last season was a slight cause for concern, though, and his 2.35 ERA in 2024 was the highest of his professional career. Despite becoming one of the most sought-after players in the world, it’s fair to question if Sasaki has the arm to be a true ace, having never thrown more than 129.1 innings in a season.
Dodgers’ Management Creates Ceiling
The Dodgers are going to be ultra-careful with all of their pitchers. Ohtani is coming off surgery. Neither Blake Snell nor Tyler Glasnow are innings eaters, and both have had injury issues.
With their stacked roster all but guaranteeing a postseason berth, keeping their arms fresh for October will be the Dodgers’ priority. This extends to the 23-year-old Sasaki.
The possibility of throwing 20 or so extra innings in the playoffs will mean Dave Roberts and the Dodgers hierarchy carefully manage his workload in the regular season. Sasaki isn’t going to throw 150 regular-season frames and then get rolled out for Game 3 of the playoff series.
- Instead, look for the Dodgers to use the injured list to rest Sasaki. His pitch count isn’t going to be pushed, and they will be quick to hook him if any innings get out of hand.
Volume isn’t always a decisive factor in Rookie of the Year voting. It inevitably becomes relevant if Sasaki has any close rivals for the award.
Adjusting Period
Sasaki’s NPB numbers are similar to that of his new teammate, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto’s ERA is a shade lower and his WHIP marginally higher. Like Sasaki, Yamamoto arrived in the majors with high expectations.
A 3.00 ERA was an impressive start to his big-league career. Yamamoto’s 1.11 WHIP in 2024 was higher than he’d recorded in any NPB campaign, however, and he pitched only 90 regular-season innings.
Sasaki won’t necessarily suffer a three-month injured list stint like Yamamoto did for his shoulder. Aside from being injured, Yamamoto had some difficult times as a rookie, conceding four or more earned runs in four of his 18 starts.
Recording 1.7 bWAR over 18 starts is far from a guarantee for NL Rookie of the Year. Sasaki will hope to pitch more innings, but the Dodgers will be cautious to have him get too far above 120 innings as a rookie.
What’s Required To Win?
In full seasons since 2014, Jonathan India (4.1), Cody Bellinger (3.9), and Ronald Acuña Jr. (3.9) are the only NL Rookie of the Year winners to post less than 5 bWAR. Jacob deGrom claimed the award with 3.5 bWAR in 2014, and Craig Kimbrel won with 2.5 bWAR in 2011.
Sasaki, then, has to look to register a year similar to Paul Skenes’ 2024. Skenes pitched 133 innings to a 1.96 ERA with a 5.9 bWAR.
A season like Skenes’ is the absolute best-case scenario for the Dodgers. Given the decrease in velocity and closely monitored workload, it seems far-fetched.
Dylan Crews has the upside to post a 5 bWAR season. Matt Shaw has a relatively high floor, but there’s no value at his current price. This isn’t the strongest NL Rookie of the Year field, which will push plenty of bettors to Sasaki at +225.
The value lies at longer odds, though, with Jordan Lawlar (+1200) and Tirso Ornelas (+1900) worth backing at their current prices. We would steer clear of Sasaki in the short-term given the production required to win NL Rookie of the Year over the last decade.
