Cole and Gil injuries unlock betting opportunities in AL East
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
AL East- Finding Value
The New York Yankees saved their offseason after losing Juan Soto. Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger, and Paul Goldschmidt were exciting additions, elevating the Yankees to clear favorites for the American League East.
Spring training has removed the shine from those moves.
Gerrit Cole underwent Tommy John surgery, ruling him out for all of 2025 at least. Luis Gil has a lat injury which will keep him out for at least three months. Giancarlo Stanton has tennis elbow in both arms. A calf injury will keep DJ LeMahieu out beyond opening day. Clarke Schmidt is questionable for the season opener with shoulder discomfort and Scott Effross has no timetable for return.
Cole, Fried, and Gil were meant to headline one of the best rotations in baseball. Stanton’s production was even more important as the Bronx Bombers tried to compensate for Soto’s absence.
The Yankees are projected for the 14th-best rotation, according to FanGraphs’ Depth Charts. They are projected for 86 wins (one more than the Boston Red Sox). PECOTA has the Yankees finishing three games behind the Baltimore Orioles in a nip-and-tuck battle with the Toronto Blue Jays for second place in the division.
This is all without mentioning the Tampa Bay Rays, who went 47-44 after a 33-38 start to the 2024 season. Tampa Bay has Shane McClanahan, Shane Baz, and Drew Rasmussen healthy ahead of opening day.
Flawed Yankees
Aaron Judge is the only Yankee projected for a wRC+ greater than 120. This offense is dependent on an inconsistent Bellinger, a post-peak Goldschmidt, and an injury-prone Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The unproven Jasson Domínguez is an x-factor, though it’s way too early to know if he will be an impactful MLB player. His defense in left field is already cause for concern.
While FanGraphs projects the Yankees to have an elite offense, it’s not hard to see them dropping out of the top 10 by wRC+, particularly if Judge spends any time on the injured list. They had enough pitching to still win the division with Cole and Gil, but with both sidelined through injury, there is little margin for error at the plate.
Fried has made 30 starts in a season just once since 2019. Marcus Stroman was a trade candidate – surplus to requirements – prior to Cole and Gil’s injuries. Carlos Rodón has an 88 ERA+ in two years as a Yankee.
The +165 at BetMGM is the best current price on the Yankees to win the division, which is way too short. Bettors can take advantage of the amount of money sportsbooks have already taken on New York to win the AL East.
Improving Red Sox
The Red Sox had an even better offseason than the Yankees. Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Aroldis Chapman, and Alex Bregman were added. Trevor Story is healthy, Rafael Devers’ complaints about his defensive position seem to have been dealt with, and this looks like a team capable of outdoing the Yankees.
Projections don’t love Boston. Perhaps the rotation doesn’t have enough proven, high-volume arms. The offense isn’t as deep as New York’s even with Tristan Casas, Jarren Duren, and Wilyer Abreu.
Boston has seen Sean Newcomb impress in spring, presenting another rotation option. In Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell, they have two of the sport’s best prospects, who are both likely to contribute to the big-league club in 2025.
Still sitting out at +350 with DraftKings, the Red Sox remain underestimated. Yes, their floor is probably lower than the Yankees and Orioles, but this team has 95+ win upside.
Take Boston Over Baltimore
The Orioles have won 192 games over the last two seasons. In Gunnar Henderson, they have a player likely to feature in plenty of preseason MLB predictions for AL MVP. Their lineup is the deepest in baseball, resulting in the highest projected fWAR among all 30 teams.
Corbin Burnes’ departure stings, though. Baltimore is in the bottom half in projected pitching fWAR. Their rotation is leaning on Charlie Morton in his age-41 season and a relative unknown in 35-year-old Tomoyuki Sagano.
At a longest price of +300, the Orioles are a better option than the Yankees, but we would recommend taking the Red Sox over them at their current prices. Run prevention is going to be a problem for Baltimore.
The Outsiders
The AL East is deep enough that even the outsiders are worth touching on here. Tampa Bay and Toronto probably don’t have enough to win the division, but they each have high enough ceilings to make the playoffs. Their prices of +180 and +210, respectively, are much more appealing with how significantly the Yankees have been weakened.
By that logic, the Yankees are +1300 to finish last in the division is also worth a small wager. This has the makings of a year to forget for the Yankees, and even if they finish around .500, that might see them at the bottom of the division.
Given our confidence in the Red Sox, there’s value going with Boston to win the division followed by the Orioles (+1500), Rays (+2500), or Jays (+4000) at DraftKings.
