MLB Futures: Paul Skenes for NL Cy Young?
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Does Paul Skenes deserve to be the favorite for the NL Cy Young?
Paul Skenes is the clear favorite to win the National League Cy Young in 2025. DraftKings has the longest price of the major sportsbooks at the time of writing, with Skenes at +300 ahead of Zack Wheeler (+750) and 2024 winner Chris Sale (+800).
Should any pitcher be so heavily favored before spring training has started?
The answer might be no, considering the number of arm injuries in recent years.
Kodai Senga, Jacob deGrom, Brandon Woodruff, Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Shane McClanahan, and Shohei Ohtani were just some of the elite pitchers to miss a significant portion or all of the 2024 regular season.
Skenes has much lower mileage on his arm than those veterans. He’s pitched only 410 innings as a professional, 133 of which were in the majors last season. Still, injuries are not all about wear and tear or overuse. Skenes throws hard which, according to MLB’s report into pitching injuries, is the likeliest cause of injuries.
Increased workload for Skenes
This price being too short isn’t just about the injury risk, though. Yes, Skenes was third in Cy Young voting last season. And yes, he had the best xERA among all starting pitchers. Steamer also projects the Pittsburgh Pirates ace to lead the NL in fWAR and ERA in 2025 while pitching 188 innings.
With his electric stuff, Skenes’ ceiling might be the highest of all NL pitchers.
There is, however, no guarantee he will be as dominant over 180+ innings as he was across 133.
His 1.96 ERA was well ahead of Sale and Wheeler in 2024. The pair pitched 44 and 67 more innings, respectively. That extra workload takes its toll – Skenes will be in unknown territory if he gets a long way past the 150-inning mark.
Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell had a 2.57 xERA in 2024, despite a woeful first half. He isn’t a great value bet at +1000 with the Los Angeles Dodgers likely to be very cautious with his workload, but Snell has proven he can match the production we saw from Skenes last year.
Now let's look at the serious challengers to Skenes for the NL Cy Young, keep these players in mind for your MLB predictions!
Main challengers
Smaller-sample dominance can win the Cy Young if the high-volume candidates are a long way behind in the rate stats. Skenes isn’t just going against old-school innings eaters, though.
Wheeler has a 2.94 ERA since the start of the 2021 season. Corbin Burnes’ ERA is the same during his time in the NL. Logan Webb is at 3.18 and has led the NL in innings in the last two seasons. Zac Gallen had a 2.54 ERA while leading the NL in WHIP in 2022.
Hunter Greene pitched 150.1 innings last season with a 2.75 ERA. If he can get his walk rate below 8%, he’s going to be a serious challenger for the Cy Young.
Tyler Glasnow probably won’t have the volume. Dylan Cease and Michael King are both worth consideration, though, and have the potential to properly challenge Skenes.
Skenes’ Cy Young odds are too short
Skenes might deserve to be the favorite for the NL Cy Young, but his current price is far too short. The injury risk has to be considered for any pitcher, and particularly a hard thrower like the Pirates ace. It’s also a very talented field in the NL, with Burnes returning from the AL and some other big names getting healthy.
If Skenes is at his best all year and pitches over 170 innings, it’s very likely he wins the word. That’s a big if. That’s a sizeable increase in his workload. Several other pitchers are capable of a sub-2.50 ERA over 170-plus innings, which would put them in the same ballpark as Skenes.
What if Skenes is at 2.50 over 170 frames and Webb, Burnes, or Wheeler have a 2.80 ERA in 210 innings? Could Greene put it all together and outperform Skenes?
At +2500 with Caesars, Greene is the value pick from the opening NL Cy Young odds. Skenes price is too short to be worth backing. If you want to take one of the favorites, Wheeler is a superior option at +800 with BetMGM.
