MLB Futures: NL Central Value Bets
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
Pirates present surprise win total value in weak NL Central
The ascendance of Paul Skenes to National League Cy Young favorite has seen the Pittsburgh Pirates attract more attention in preseason MLB predictions than they have for a decade. Pittsburgh owns the National League’s longest playoff drought – and the second-longest across the majors – and has a win total between 76.5 and 77.5.
Over 76.5 is +100 at FanDuel at the time of writing. The Pirates won 76 games last season and hasn’t cleared this line since an 82-win campaign in 2018. Recent history suggests it is overly ambitious for bettors to take the Pirates’ over, but this team is a bit different to previous iterations.
Skenes was a Cy Young finalist in 2024. He’s the first Pirate to finish in the top three for a major award since Andrew McCutchen placed third for MVP in 2014. One player cannot turn a team’s fortunes, but Skenes is not alone.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds are a solid core. Spencer Horwitz was an intriguing pickup from the Toronto Blue Jays. The bullpen only projects to be 19th according to Depth Charts, yet there is considerable upside with David Bednar, Caleb Ferguson, Tanner Rainey, Dennis Santana, and others. It’s not infeasible that Pittsburgh has a top-10 relief corps.
Pitching Strength
Few rotations, meanwhile, have as high a potential as Pittsburgh’s. Bubba Chandler, the fourth-best pitching prospect in baseball and 15th overall, is on his way to join Skenes in the rotation. Jared Jones and Mitch Keller are projected to combine for 4.8 fWAR.
FanGraphs has the Pirates as the 11th-best rotation in baseball. It’s just ahead of the Cincinnati Reds’ staff for the best in the National League Central and comfortably clear of the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Chicago Cubs.
Projections are often cautious with younger players. There’s less track record to go on, so the numbers can seem harsh. There is real downside with this Pirates rotation, but the upside is massive, too.
Only one MLB park – of those active in 2025 – is harder to hit homers than PNC Park. Skenes could realistically have a 1.90 ERA over 170+ innings. Chandler leapt up the prospect lists after seven dominant starts in Double-A (54 strikeouts in 39.1 innings). Jones, boasting a high-velocity fastball and impressive whiff rate, could be a solid second starter, particularly if he ups his slider usage, which generated a lot of swing-and-misses last season.
Keller projects to be a solid third or fourth guy in a rotation and not much more than that at this point. His diverse arsenal allows him to work deep into games, though, resulting in the 12th-most innings pitched over the last two years. Keller’s FIP is between Luis Castillo and Aaron Nola since the start of 2023.
Thomas Harrington, barring injury, will have a role to play in the majors in 2025, too. He’s not a future ace like Chandler and Jones could be, but he provides further depth to a fascinating rotation.
Cruz’s Upside
Only three teams have had less fWAR from their position players than the Pirates over the last two seasons. The Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox are the only teams with a worse wRC+. This is where sportsbooks were looking when they set such a low win total.
ZiPS, however, has seven Pirates posting a league-average or better wRC+. Horwitz leads the team at 119, trailed by Reynolds and Cruz at 114 and 112, respectively. None of those numbers are putting them up with Juan Soto or Aaron Judge, but they are solidly above-average hitters.
The ultra-toolsy Cruz is where the most upside lies. He had a .773 OPS and a 20-20 season in 2024, but there’s the potential for so much more with a 100th percentile bat speed, 97th percentile barrel rate, 88th percentile sprint speed, and 78th percentile xwOBA.
Cruz is always going to be swing-happy. The strikeout rate will make old-school fans wince, and there are some ugly plate appearances. Pittsburgh’s offense needs a few of their role players to overachieve if they are to be a playoff team, but Cruz having a major breakout would be a step in the right direction.
Hammer Their Over
The Pirates don’t need an elite offense to hit this over. They can be a below-average offensive team and finish .500 if their pitching staff lives up to expectations. If Cruz breaks out and a few others exceed their projections, Pittsburgh could make some noise in the NL wild-card race.
For now, let’s focus on backing over 76.5 wins. The Pirates are in the National League’s weakest division and should be stronger than last year – they only need to win one extra game to hit this bet, which becomes much easier with the Brewers and Cardinals are expected to regress.
